国库现金转存商业银行的货币效应分析及管理建议

近年来,我国国库现金余额因国家财力增长及预算收支进度不均衡等因素出现大幅上升,闲置国库现金运用对货币供应的影响日益显著。该文根据商业银行资产运用特点,通过模型构建简单分析了国库现金转存商业银行的年度货币效应,以揭示其货币效应的影响因素,并从建立健全法规规章、提高国库收支预测水平等方面,提出进一步完善国库现金业务管理的相关建议。     

Same as it ever was? Europe's national borders and the market for corporate control

National borders continue to be strong barriers for mergers and acquisitions in Europe. Using regional data, we construct a gravity model and find that the restraining impact of national borders decreased by more than 17 percent between 1991 and 2007. However, no significant change has occurred since the mid-1990s (i.e., four years before the introduction of the euro). In comparison, we run a corresponding analysis in the United States using the 10 federal regions as country equivalents. The resulting ‘quasi-border’ effect in the United States is weaker than that in the European Union. Yet its decline by 43 percent is much stronger in the same period. We conclude that European integration policy has had little effect on fostering M&A cross-border transactions.     

Time heals many wounds – explaining the immediate and delayed effects of message sidedness

This study investigates the immediate and delayed effects of advertising messages including both positive and negative information. A two-sided message has a negative effect on message attitudes due to two mediating variables with trade-off effects: valence and balance. These two variables are also responsible for the alignment of the effect of sidedness on message attitudes and purchase intentions over time: the negative effects of two-sided messages are neutralized over time because negative information is reevaluated, improving the valence of the message. The results explain the negative effects of message sidedness that have been found in prior research and they show that a two-sided message in advertising is not necessarily inferior to a one-sided message despite unfavorable short-term effects.     

FIRE SALES FORENSICS: MEASURING ENDOGENOUS RISK

We propose a tractable framework for quantifying the impact of loss‐triggered fire sales on portfolio risk, in a multi‐asset setting. We derive analytical expressions for the impact of fire sales on the realized volatility and correlations of asset returns in a fire sales scenario and show that our results provide a quantitative explanation for the spikes in volatility and correlations observed during such deleveraging episodes. These results are then used to develop an econometric framework for the forensic analysis of fire sales episodes, using observations of market prices. We give conditions for the identifiability of model parameters from time series of asset prices, propose a statistical test for the presence of fire sales, and an estimator for the magnitude of fire sales in each asset class. Pathwise consistency and large sample properties of the estimator are studied in the high‐frequency asymptotic regime. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to the forensic analysis of two recent deleveraging episodes: the Quant Crash of August 2007 and the Great Deleveraging following the default of Lehman Brothers in Fall 2008.     

Price promotion with reference price effects in supply chain

We consider the price promotion in a supply chain comprising one manufacturer and one retailer, who take into account the reference price effects of consumers. The problem is analyzed as a manufacturer-lead Stackelberg game. The results indicate that reference price effects could mitigate “double marginalization” effects, and improve the channel efficiency. We also show that the optimal price promotion benefits the manufacturer, retailer and consumers in consumer promotion model. Furthermore, we provide the conditions under which the retailer has an interest in offering price promotion to consumers. Finally, we employ numerical analysis to demonstrate more managerial insights.     

An adaptive large-neighborhood search heuristic for a multi-period vehicle routing problem

This problem involves optimizing product collection and redistribution from production locations to a set of processing plants over a planning horizon. This horizon consists of several days, and the collection-redistribution is performed on a repeating daily basis. A single routing plan must be prepared for the whole horizon, taking into account the seasonal variations in the supply. We model the problem using a sequence of periods, each corresponding to a season. We propose an adaptive large-neighborhood search with several specifically designed operators and features. The results show the excellent performance of the algorithm in terms of solution quality and computational efficiency.     

Arc routing problems to restore connectivity of a road network

After a disaster, restoring accessibility in the affected area is critical for response operations. We study two arc routing problems for clearing blocked roads. The first problem minimizes the time to reconnect the road network, while the second maximizes the total benefit gained by reconnecting network components within a time limit. For each problem, we develop a mixed integer programming formulation and two versions of a heuristic algorithm. We conduct computational experiments on Istanbul data and instances adapted from the literature. The heuristics achieve near-optimal or optimal solutions quickly in most of the tested instances.     

Sentiment,mood and outbound tourism demand

We investigate spillover effects from sentiment and mood shocks on US outbound tourism demand from 1996 until 2013. We use the Index of Consumer Sentiment and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index as proxies for sentiment and the S&P500 as a proxy for mood. We find a moderate to high interrelationship among sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand. More importantly, sentiment and mood indicators are net transmitters of spillover shocks to outbound tourism demand. The magnitude of spillover effects sourced by sentiment and mood is time-varying and depends on certain socio-economic and environmental events. Our results have important implications for policymakers and travel agents in their efforts to predict tourism arrivals from key origin countries and to plan their tourism strategy.     

Mobile technology & resident attitude research

This research note highlights the novelty of integrating location-based services (LBS) available on Smart Phones and Tablets into traditional resident attitude survey methodologies such as door-to-door data collection. It specifically reviews how the LBS technology available on mobile devices can be used to systematically capture GPS coordinates of one's residence and integrate this captured spatial information into software such as ArcGIS and SPSS for further analysis. By having GPS coordinates associated with respondents' answers, researchers have an additional layer of information available for conducting a multitude of tests previously not possible with subjective categorical spatial data. Two research applications using the spatial location of residences are provided as examples of how LBS available on mobile devices can be integrated within resident attitude projects. The use of LBS technology can help researchers better understand how the distance residents live from major tourist attractions influences their attitudes towards tourism.     

Comparing levels of resident empowerment among two culturally diverse resident populations in Oizumi,Gunma, Japan

While resident empowerment has been a central aspect of the sustainable tourism literature, difficulties of putting the concept into practice have been noted given the heterogeneous nature of communities. “Community” is often divided by kinship, age, gender and ethnicity, and such division may influence the perceptions of empowerment. The goal of this study was to better understand heterogeneous perceptions of empowerment by administering the Resident Empowerment through Tourism Scale within the community of Oizumi, Japan. Oizumi has the highest concentration of Brazilian immigrants in Japan, and the town has embraced “ethnic neighborhood tourism” centered on Brazilian culture as a strategy for economic development. Oizumi's demographic makeup allowed for testing differences in perceived empowerment between members of the dominant ethnic group (Japanese) and members of the ethnic minority group (Japanese Brazilians). Analysis of 650 completed questionnaires revealed that Brazilians felt more psychologically and socially empowered than Japanese residents, indicating a shift in the balance of power between the ethnic groups. Results also revealed that the political dimension of empowerment was rated relatively low among both groups, suggesting a general lack of opportunities to participate in the planning process. Implications for both practice and theory are presented.