Higher Intensity,Higher Profit? Empirical Evidence from Dairy Farming in New Zealand

Over the last two decades there have been significant and well‐documented changes in the nature and structure of New Zealand dairy production. One particular feature has been a marked shift in the ‘input intensity’ of dairy farming systems through increased use of supplementary feed. These changes have generated debate about the impact of dairy farm intensity on the performance of farm businesses and the competitiveness of the New Zealand dairy sector. Using a novel econometric approach, we assess statistically the impact of three types of dairy farming systems on milk production and financial performance, using farm business data provided by DairyBase^®. Our empirical results show that higher input systems perform significantly better physically than lower input systems, but not financially. The disaggregated analysis suggests that the average treatment effects differ by region and performance quantiles.     

退耕还林背景下农户收入的社会网络效应分析 ——以四川南江县白滩村为例

研究目的:探讨退耕农户在生产力安排和收入结构方面是否存在同群效应或者互补效应,以及劳动力流动、退耕还林政策因素对农户收入结构的影响机制。研究方法:考虑农村社会网络内部农户间互动对其决策的影响,利用空间权重矩阵精确且全面地捕捉和定位社会网络复杂关系,构建空间计量模型展开分析。研究结果:(1)在白滩村社会网络体系中,农户的农业收入比增长1%,其亲戚邻居的家庭农业收入比降低6.7%,这一情况反映了劳动力由农业部门向非农部门转移而产生的社会网络"互补效应";(2)白滩村退耕程度越高的农户,其农业收入占家庭总收入比例就越高,退耕程度每增加1%,农业收入比将提高5.2%;(3)家庭总劳动力越多的,农业收入占总收入比例越低,其中家庭农业劳动力每流出1%,农业收入比减少3.2%。研究结论:(1)将白滩村社会网络的互补效应应用于其农村信息共享平台建设;(2)通过鼓励种植收入较高的经济林提高农民退耕还林积极性;(3)以就业为核心促进白滩村剩余劳动力转移。     

Integrating local ecological services into intergovernmental fiscal transfers: The case of the ecological ICMS in Brazil

Local conservation efforts are often related to benefits at higher governmental levels. On the one hand, these efforts are strongly connected to local land-use decisions. On the other hand, activities such as sustainable water management or biodiversity conservation are associated with regional, national or even global public goods. Therefore, spatial externalities or spillovers exist, which—if not adequately compensated for—lead to an underprovision of the public goods and services concerned. This article investigates intergovernmental fiscal transfers as an innovative instrument for compensating local jurisdictions for the ecological goods and services they provide across local boundaries. From a public finance perspective, fiscal transfers are a suitable instrument for internalising spatial externalities. However, most federal states use this instrument predominantly for social and economic public sector functions rather than for ecological ones. This article investigates the case of the ecological “ICMS” that was first introduced by a few states in Brazil during the 1990s. Part of the revenue from this value-added tax is redistributed to the local level on the basis of ecological indicators. In this way, the state level uses fiscal transfers to compensate municipalities for the existence of protected areas and other ecological services provided within their territories. The Brazilian experience illustrates that such fiscal transfers can represent both a compensation for land-use restrictions and an incentive to value and engage in more conservation activities at the local level.     

China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China's rice sector

We analysed a county‐level data set of single‐season rice yield and daily weather outcomes in China to examine the effects of temperature on China's rice sector. We found that rice yield exhibited highly nonlinear responses to temperature changes: rice yield increased with temperature up to 28°C and decreased sharply with higher temperatures. Holding current growing seasons and regions constant, average rice yield in China is projected to decrease by 10–19 per cent by 2050 and 11–33 per cent by 2070 due to future warming under the global climate models HadGEM2‐ES and NorESM1‐M. These results imply that future warming poses a major challenge for Chinese rice farmers and that the effectiveness of adaptations will depend on how well they reduce the negative temperature impacts on rice yield because of very hot days.     

Assessing cost‐effectiveness when environmental benefits are bundled: agricultural water management in Great Barrier Reef catchments

Using economic analysis to prioritise improvements in environmental conditions is particularly difficult when multiple benefits are involved. This includes ‘bundling’ issues in agricultural pollution management, where a change in management action or farming systems generates multiple improvements, such as reductions in more than one pollutant. In this study, we conceptualise and compare two different approaches to analysing cost‐effectiveness when varying bundles of benefits are generated for a single project investment. Each approach requires data to be transformed in some way to allow the analysis to proceed. The index approach requires the transformation on the benefits side so that the effects of multiple pollutant changes can be combined into a measure for each project which can then be compared to costs. By comparison, the disaggregation approach requires the transformation on the costs side where costs for each project have to be apportioned across the different pollutants involved. The paper provides novel insights with an application to agricultural water quality improvements into the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, demonstrating that while both approaches are effective in prioritising projects by cost‐effectiveness, the disaggregation approach provides more insightful results and values that may be relevant for use as upper value guidelines in future project selection.     

Determinants of island tourism development: The example of Dachangshan Island

Islands possess their own patterns of spatial and temporal evolution as tourist destinations. Taking Dachangshan Island as an example, two key stages were identified: a 'landscape-oriented' period from 2002 to 2009, and a 'background' stage from 2009 to 2012. Co-existing with both periods was changing spatial and land-use patterns of expansion and intensification. Using spatial mapping techniques, it was found that tourist resources were found to be the original driving force, tourist transportation and social and economic factors were endogenous determinants of change, and tourist enterprises and source markets subject to government policies the exogenous factors.     

城市工业用地产出率影响因素及区域比较—— 地级城市面板数据分析

研究目的:发现城市工业用地产出率影响因素及其影响程度和区域差异,提出相应对策以促进工业集约用地。研究方法:根据土地功能理论和经济主体动力学关系导向原则构建城市工业用地产出率双向固定效应模型,利用地级城市面板数据估计并检验工业用地产出率影响因素及作用程度并进行区域比较。研究结果:城市工业用地投资强度、就业密度和全要素生产率对1999年来城市工业用地产出率增长的贡献率分别为21.3%、-7%和85.7%;它们对工业用地产出率的边际贡献由于东中西部工业用地集约度、产业类型、劳动素质不同而呈现出区域差异。研究结论:应遏制各地尤其是中西部工业新区建设中粗放用地行为、促进工业投资并加强工业区生活配套以提升投资强度和就业密度,应在工业用地配置和评价中更加重视全要素生产率指标,应推动中西部地区工业升级并在营商环境、基础设施等方面缩小与东部的差距。     

The HRM–capital market link: Effects of securities analysts on strategic human capital

This article develops theory about an agency problem affecting the strategic human capital (SHC) of the firm. It proposes three categories of SHC‐related choices managers must make that imply a trade‐off between near‐ and long‐term performance. Dispersed shareholding, firm coverage by securities analysts, and their practice of publishing quarterly earnings forecasts are argued to entail a bias in management incentives, shifting the balance in this trade‐off toward near‐term performance. To restore the balance, securities analysts would need to distinguish transitory from recurring effects of SHC‐related choices in their valuation models (e.g., treating certain labor cost savings during cyclical downturns as transitory). Restoring the balance would also require them to anticipate long‐term effects in their long‐term earnings forecasts (e.g., long‐term positive effects of retaining employees with valuable skills during cyclical downturns). The article discusses specific transitory cost effects and long‐term effects they could potentially take into account. The skills and incentives needed by analysts to account for such effects are argued to vary across firm segments.     

工业集聚与污染排放强度——基于固定效应门限回归模型的再检验

为研究工业集聚对污染排放强度的影响,本文选取2000~2015年全国30个省市（自治区）的面板数据,以工业集聚为门槛变量,利用固定效应门限回归模型,实证分析了不同工业集聚水平对污染排放强度的影响。结果发现：工业集聚对废水排放强度的影响存在显著门槛效应,在达到门槛值前,工业集聚很大程度降低了废水排放强度,在跨过门槛值后,这种作用会减弱。工业集聚与废气排放强度呈显著倒“U”型关系,在工业集聚水平小于门槛值时,工业集聚会加剧废气排放,大于门槛值后,工业集聚会降低废气排放强度。工业集聚会降低废物排放强度,但未出现显著门槛效应。     

能源碳排放与环境污染空间效应研究——基于能源强度与技术进步视角的空间杜宾计量模型

本文基于空间环境库兹涅茨曲线理论探讨经济发展约束下能源强度和技术进步对大气环境的空间效应作用机理,采用探索性空间分析工具、经典最小二乘估计（OLS）、空间滞后模型（SLM）、空间误差模型（SEM）和空间杜宾--可拓展随机性环境影响评估模型（Spatial Durbin-STIRPAT Models）探索能源碳排放与大气环境污染的空间格局和空间溢出效应。实证估计结果表明,能源碳排放与空气环境污染在空间分布上表现出空间正相关性和空间集聚效应;能源强度与技术进步对能源碳排放与大气环境的空间溢出效应显著。在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议。