FIRE SALES FORENSICS: MEASURING ENDOGENOUS RISK

We propose a tractable framework for quantifying the impact of loss‐triggered fire sales on portfolio risk, in a multi‐asset setting. We derive analytical expressions for the impact of fire sales on the realized volatility and correlations of asset returns in a fire sales scenario and show that our results provide a quantitative explanation for the spikes in volatility and correlations observed during such deleveraging episodes. These results are then used to develop an econometric framework for the forensic analysis of fire sales episodes, using observations of market prices. We give conditions for the identifiability of model parameters from time series of asset prices, propose a statistical test for the presence of fire sales, and an estimator for the magnitude of fire sales in each asset class. Pathwise consistency and large sample properties of the estimator are studied in the high‐frequency asymptotic regime. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to the forensic analysis of two recent deleveraging episodes: the Quant Crash of August 2007 and the Great Deleveraging following the default of Lehman Brothers in Fall 2008.     

加入 WTO十年来中国对外反倾销实践分析

自2001年加入WTO十年来,中国成为了目前世界上对外实施反倾销最多的国家之一,本文将对十年来我国对外反倾销的实践做出总结分析。我国的反倾销实践在调查时间、调查的结果、反倾销税率、反倾销的国别与产品方面,与世界其他国家相比既有共通之处,也有自己的特点。而在政策效果方面,我国的反倾销措施对于国内产业的救济和涉案产品的进口限制收效显著;同时,反倾销带来的进口转移、直接投资规避现象等也比较明显。     

Strength in numbers or guilt by association? Intragroup effects of female chief executive announcements

We predict that the media reports on female CEOs as a coherent group, whereas male CEOs are treated as individuals by the media. We also suggest that the resulting investors' perceptions of group entitativity of female‐led firms may not only influence the succession event–performance relationship at the focal firm, but may also have a significant effect on the value of other female‐led companies. Results of a text analysis and an event study of appointments of female CEOs to Fortune 1000 firms provide support for these predictions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Applying an extended theory of planned behavior to examine state-branded food product purchase behavior: The moderating effect of gender

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to use an extended model of the theory of planned behavior to investigate the antecedents which lead to consumers’ purchase of state-branded food products. Relationships among attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, health-consciousness, intention to purchase, and actual purchase were examined. In addition, the moderating role of gender on consumer purchasing was assessed. The hypothetical model was empirically tested using data collected via Amazon Mechanical Turk (Mturk). Results implicated that consumers’ attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control of purchasing state-branded products significantly predicted their intention to purchase, and consumers’ intention to purchase significantly predicted their actual purchase of state-branded products. The relationship between health-consciousness and intention to purchase, however, was not found. Gender differences were found only between consumers’ perceived behavioral control of state-branded purchasing and their intention to purchase. Implications for marketers, farmers, and restaurant owners are provided.     

Economic progress and skill obsolescence with network effects

Summary. We construct an OLG model with network effects to examine skill obsolescence when individuals can choose technological vintages. In the absence of transfer payments, some regions of the parameter space have unique stationary equilibria, others have unique cyclical equilibria, and others have multiple stationary equilibria. All equilibria are Pareto efficient. However, rat race equilibria can exist in which all agents currently alive prefer a slower rate of progress than occurs in equilibrium. When contemporaneous transfers are allowed, equilibria are unique everywhere, but a cycle still exists, and a rat race can still arise in equilibrium. Allowing intertemporal transfers (debt) ensures that all equilibria are stationary. In the relevant parameter range, the introduction of debt can eliminate cycles and increase the long-run growth rate. No rat race equilibria exist when debt is allowed.Received: 3 January 2002, Revised: 3 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: 041, J24, O33. Correspondence to: Ian P. KingEarly versions of this paper were presented at the West Coast Macro Workshop, the Mid-West Macro Meetings, the Canadian Macroeconomics Study Group Meetings, and the Society for Economic Dynamics Meetings. We would like to thank V. V. Chari, Merwan Engineer, Don Ferguson, John Hillas, John Knowles, Dan Peled, Dan Usher, Linda Welling and Julian Wright for helpful comments. We are especially grateful to an anonymous referee for some very useful and substantive comments.     

多媒体教学的利与弊

中华民族的伟大复兴,需要培养一批具有国际竞争力、创新能力强、综合素质高的建设型人才。而教育环节卓有成效的开展是关键因素。如何将现代教育技术成功地应用于教学,是世界各国竟相研究和急需攻克的课题。我院的教育工作者大胆探索、勇于实践,在多媒体教学实践中,取得了丰硕成效。但是在取得成绩的同时,也存在许多需要克服解决的问题。本文针对多媒体教学的成效、应该注意及需要克服的问题展开讨论。     

Alternative Approaches to Multilevel Modelling of Survey Non‐Contact and Refusal

We review three alternative approaches to modelling survey non‐contact and refusal: multinomial, sequential, and sample selection (bivariate probit) models. We then propose a multilevel extension of the sample selection model to allow for both interviewer effects and dependency between non‐contact and refusal rates at the household and interviewer level. All methods are applied and compared in an analysis of household non‐response in the United Kingdom, using a data set with unusually rich information on both respondents and non‐respondents from six major surveys. After controlling for household characteristics, there is little evidence of residual correlation between the unobserved characteristics affecting non‐contact and refusal propensities at either the household or the interviewer level. We also find that the estimated coefficients of the multinomial and sequential models are surprisingly similar, which further investigation via a simulation study suggests is due to non‐contact and refusal having largely different predictors.     

网络条件下的政治参与特点与效应探析

公民政治参与是现代政治的必然要求。网络传媒的速迅发展为实现公民政治参与提供了技术支持,但同时也带来各种负效应。正确分析网络参政的特点和效应,是进一步推动网络条件下政治参与科学化、规范化和制度化的内在要求。     

Measuring the external benefits of homeownership

The subsidization of homeownership is justified on efficiency grounds only to the extent that it provides benefits to people other than the homeowner. We use the clustered neighborhoods subsample in the American Housing Survey to measure that benefit in the form of higher housing prices in neighborhoods with higher ownership rates (and lower vacancies). We attempt to account for unobservable neighborhood and house attributes that may be correlated with occupancy and ownership through instrumental variables, switching regressions and panel methods. Estimates indicate that a housing transition from renting to owning creates approximately $1300 in measured benefits.     

Optimal regime switching and threshold effects

We consider a general control problem with two types of optimal regime switch. The first one concerns technological and/or institutional regimes indexed by a finite number of discrete parameter values, and the second features regimes relying on given threshold values for given state variables. We propose a general optimal control framework allowing to derive the first-order optimality conditions and in particular to characterize the geometry of the shadow prices at optimal switching times (if any). We apply this new optimal control material to address the problem of the optimal management of natural resources under ecological irreversibility, and with the possibility to switch to a backstop technology.