Volatility spillovers and connectedness among credit default swap sector indexes

This article studies volatility spill-over effects and market connectedness using daily data of credit default swap spreads for U.S. companies over a period from 2007 to 2012. We quantify volatility spillovers by means of an unconditional analysis performed using the entire sample, and a conditional analysis which estimates the model using a rolling window. As our database contains the global financial crisis (GFC), we are able to determine how volatility spillovers spread in the economy during the recent market turmoil. Our unconditional results confirm that the Financials sector was a main contributor to the overall market volatility along with the Consumer Goods, Consumer Services and Basic Materials sectors. The conditional analysis clearly identifies that the Financials was the major feeding sector of volatility spill-over effects, and that the market volatility was successively driven by Technology and Basic Materials over a rather short period of time, followed by Consumer Goods and Consumer Services over a prolonged period of time. Our results illustrate indirect linkages between the sectors that conveyed shocks during the GFC.     

福利保障体制改革的消费效应研究

九十年代中国进行了以住房教育医疗养老为主要内容的福利保障体制改革,这种改革曾对我国消费产生了巨大的影响,这种影响目前是否还存在以及多大程度上存在着?这对判断我国当前宏观经济状况及走势具有重要意义.本文的分析说明,福利保障体制改革内在的动态效应减少了表面看起来对消费的可能的冲击,而保险的替代效应的存在使福利保障改革对消费的抑制效应至少在我国中等以上收入群体中大大缩小,但对低收入群体的影响依然很大.     

Neighbourhood influences on organic buying

Past studies have explained organic buying as a function of sociodemographic or attitudinal consumer's traits and/or as a result of marketing influences. However, in view of mounting evidence of social effects on sustainable consumption, this paper aims to enrich our understanding of the determinants of organic demand by introducing neighbourhood effects in buying models; in particular, using scanner data from Nielsen household panelists of 2012–2013, this study tests the influence on demand of both structural variables (collapsed into a factor labelled “neighbourhood class”) and geographical location of a household, controlling for the influence of household characteristics and other marketing‐related influences (e.g., price). This paper concludes that structural class, rather than household class, positively influences organic milk purchasing. It also shows that relative class can also explain the likelihood of organic buying.     

Technology spillover effects within Spanish communities

The article uses panel data for the period 1990–2010 to estimate technology spillover effects on 17 Spanish communities. Accounting for nonstationarity and cointegration, we use the dynamic OLS estimator to estimate the impact of domestic and non-domestic R&;D capital stock on labour productivity of Spanish communities, taking into account trade-, migration- and foreign direct investment (FDI)-related technology diffusion channels. We find significant trade-related spillover effects within Spanish communities and from EU countries. On average, an increase in the non-domestic R&;D stock of 1% increases their labour productivity between 0.02% and 0.12% if related to bilateral trade pattern. Moreover, migration within Spanish communities has a negative impact ranging between ?0.07% and ?0.16% on labour productivity as the impact of inward migration is dominated by outward migration. There is no robust impact from FDI inflows of OECD countries in general or EU countries in particular. Finally, the domestic R&;D stock, physical capital and human capital are shown to be significant drivers for labour productivity in Spain no matter if non-domestic (local or foreign) spillover effects are trade-, migration- or FDI-related.     

关键描述变量在市场细分中的中介作用研究

描述变量研究中存在的问题以及营销实践中的困惑要求研究者构建一种新的市场细分范式.文章根据有关学者提出的模型进一步在描述变量中提炼出关键描述变量的概念,认为主要由客观需要、目标价值观、信号价值观和消费资源构成的关键描述变量对人口统计因素等基本描述变量与行为变量之间的关系具有中介作用,以私家车为例的实证结果也基本支持了这一假设.文章建议营销者可尝试采用新的市场细分范式,即对消费者的关键描述变量进行直接测量和细分,然后一方面用来解释和预测消费行为,为怎样营销服务;另一方面用来寻找相应的人口统计特征,进而为哪里营销服务.     

金融市场发展对中国FDI技术溢出效应的影响及其门槛效应检验

金融发展水平对提高技术吸收能力至关重要,并对FDI技术溢出效应的实现产生重要影响。利用中国1983—2007年的时间序列数据,从金融发展水平与FDI技术溢出效应间的线性和非线性关联假设出发,研究金融发展水平对FDI技术溢出效应的影响。研究结果发现:FDI确实对中国的技术进步有明显的积极作用,并存在显著的技术溢出效应,而FDI技术溢出存在显著的金融发展"门槛效应"。     

横向兼并合谋效应评价方法的批判性审视及前沿问题

通过评判性地审视国外、特别是美国反垄断当局和产业组织经济学家所提出的用来评价横向兼并合谋效应的主要方法发现,合谋效应模拟是反垄断经济学和竞争政策研究的一个前沿问题。合谋效应模拟用客观的、可证实的计算代替了主观的、不可证实的直觉,是改进当前合谋效应分析的一条充满希望的有效途径。合谋效应模拟的研究将有助于中国反垄断执法机构更好地进行兼并合谋效应的审查。     

避孕知情选择对中国人工流产的影响分析

随着避孕知情选择的逐步展开,我国已婚育龄人群的避孕模式发生了较大变化。其中,短效自控型避孕措施构成的升高,减弱了原来以长效医控型避孕措施为主的避孕模式所固有的高避孕效果,也增加了意外妊娠的可能性。人工流产作为意外妊娠的主要补救措施,其发生的可能性是否随知情选择的开展而有所变化?目前,鲜有学者对此进行过全国层面的系统量化分析。利用1988～2001年全国计划生育/生殖健康抽样调查数据,比较知情选择开展前后人工流产行为的变化。伴随知情选择的全面展开,已婚育龄妇女人工流产发生可能性降低的趋势在各个孩次上都有明显的体现,表明我国知情选择的逐步推广已产生了一定的良性效果。     

中国FDI水平溢出效应的Meta分析

本文通过从55篇研究文献中提取关于中国FDI水平溢出效应的相关信息,应用Meta回归分析方法考察中国FDI水平溢出效应的实证结论受何种因素的影响和所受影响的程度。本文Meta回归分析研究发现文献研究中指标的构建（被解释变量指标与FDI溢出效应指标）会影响FDI水平溢出效应的结论,区分FDI水平、垂直溢出效应后会降低得到FDI水平溢出效应是显著的结论的可能性;但文献研究中样本数据特征对FDI水平溢出效应的结论的影响更大,特别是文献研究中如果采用近期的数据会降低得到正向FDI水平溢出效应的可能性,采用的数据跨度越长（实际上是数据中包括的近期数据越多）会降低得到FDI水平溢出效应是显著的结论的可能性;文献研究中是否纳入控制变量对FDI水平溢出效应的正负及是否显著的影响不大,因此研究中国FDI水平溢出效应时模型的设定（主要是遗漏变量）问题并不严重。     

基于局部网络效应的数字信息产品竞争兼容策略研究

采用基于复杂社会网络的产品竞争微观扩散模型,应用计算实验的方法分析在局部网络效应作用下,不同网络拓扑结构及产品完全兼容策略、部分兼容策略和完全不兼容策略对产品竞争扩散的影响。研究结果表明,不兼容策略下不同消费者群体之间的联系越少,局部偏差值越大,越有可能出现厂商共享市场份额的局面。此外,新产品进入市场的时机、消费者之间的交互作用和产品的内在价值是影响厂商选择不同兼容策略的关键因素。