不完全市场下的期权定价理论综述

由于B-S定价公式是在完全市场条件假设下推导出来的,这与现实存在很大的出路,因此后来的学者就针对市场条件状况,研究了不同市场条件下的期权定价,其中以不完全市场条件下的期权定价为主,这显然与事实更加吻合。不完全市场主要可以分为带交易费用的期权市场、存有违约风险的期权市场以及信息不完全的期权市场。文章在此基础上,分析总结了在这个市场假设条件下的研究现状,并给出了未来值得深入研究的方向:主要是进一步放松B-S定价模型的假设条件,引入更多的现实因素,深入研究不同市场状况下的期权定价问题。     

Exchange rate dynamics and US dollar-denominated sovereign bond prices in emerging markets

Using data on Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey, our empirical results show that the exchange rates of their currencies have adequate explanatory power in explaining their US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, particularly in the post-global financial crisis period. We develop a two-factor pricing model with closed-form solutions for the sovereign bonds in which the correlated factors are foreign exchange rates and US risk-free interest rates that follow a double square-root process relevant in the low interest rate environment. The numerical results and associated error analysis show that the model credit spreads can broadly track the market credit spreads.     

Model Comparison for Temperature-Based Weather Derivatives in Mainland China

Abstract:

In this paper, we provide a comparison of two models of temperature-based weather derivatives. The Alaton et al. model (2002) and the continuous-time autoregressive (CAR) model of Benth et al. (2007) are applied to temperature data from twelve cities in China. The objective is to determine which is the better model for temperature derivative modeling in Chinese cities. We found the CAR model to be more accurate in terms of normality of residuals and smaller relative errors. However, the shortcomings of both the Alaton et al. model and the CAR model are revealed in this study as well.     

数字偏好、尾数定价与线上非对称价格黏性

文章基于京东、苏宁、国美、天猫四家电商经营的六大类家电的价格数据，分析了数字偏好、尾数定价对中国线上市场价格黏性的非对称性的影响效应。研究发现，中国线上市场确实存在明显的数字偏好现象，具体有数字“0”“8”“9”，其中数字“9”为最受欢迎的尾数。基于Logit模型进一步发现：数字“0”“8”“9”对于产品价格变化存在非对称的影响作用；随着数字“0”“8”“9”结尾的位数越多，其阻碍价格变化的能力越强，非对称的影响作用也越加明显；若产品价格提高，以偏好数字结尾会显著降低价格变化的可能性；节日效应会显著削弱由偏好尾数给价格变化带来的负向阻碍作用，甚至成为加快价格上涨的一个重要因素。     

The effect of specific discount pattern in terms of price promotions on perceived price attractiveness and purchase intention: An experimental research

This study aims to investigate consumer perceptions and reactions in terms of specific discount patterns (fixed price, 40% discount, discount from 500 TL to 300 TL and 20% + 25% discount) in price promotion. According to the results, specific discount patterns in price promotion have a significant effect on perceived price attractiveness and purchase intention. When the specific discount patterns in price promotion and gender interaction were analyzed in terms of perceived price attractiveness, the scenario of the “discount from TL 500 to TL 300” significantly differentiated from both the control scenario (fixed price) and experimental scenarios for female. For males, no significant difference was found between the control and experimental scenarios. In terms of purchase intention, a significant difference was found between the fixed price scenario and the discount scenario from 500 TL to 300 TL and between the fixed price and 20% + 25% discount scenario. The theoretical managerial implications of the study were discussed, and future research suggestions were presented.     

Profit shifting and tax-rate uncertainty

Using firm-level data for 1,084 parent firms in 24 countries and for 9,497 subsidiaries in 54 countries, we show that tax-motivated profit shifting is larger among subsidiaries in countries that have stable corporate tax rates over time. Our findings further suggest that firms move away from transfer pricing and toward intragroup debt shifting that has lower adjustment costs. Our results are robust to several identification methods and respecifications, and they highlight the important role of tax-rate uncertainty in the profit-shifting decision while pointing to an adjustment away from more costly transfer pricing and toward debt shifting.     

The long-run reversal in the long run: Insights from two centuries of international equity returns

We perform the most comprehensive test of long-term reversal in national equity indices ever done. Having examined data from 71 countries for the years 1830 through 2019, we demonstrate a strong reversal pattern: the past long-term return negatively predicts future performance. The phenomenon is not subsumed by other established cross-sectional return patterns, including the value effect. The long-term reversal is robust to many considerations but highly unstable through time. Finally, our findings support the overreaction explanation of this anomaly.     

Compensation for illiquidity in China: Evidence from an alternative measure

This paper shows that liquidity is an important source of priced risk in China. Using A-share stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchange over the period 2007–2017, we examine the influence of liquidity on stock returns. A new liquidity measure that captures multiple dimensions of liquidity is proposed. Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regression shows that the expected return is negatively correlated with liquidity. Based on Fama and French (1993), we propose a five-factor pricing model by incorporating reversal factor and liquidity factor. Time-series regressions show that the liquidity factor makes significantly marginal contributions to explaining excess stock returns. The liquidity factor based on the proposed measure works better than alternative liquidity measures such as turnover, Amihud illiquidity measure and the measure in Liu (2006).     

Asset pricing and energy consumption risk

This paper proposes energy consumption in the US as a new measure for the consumption capital asset pricing model. We find that (i) industrial energy growth produces reasonable values for the relative risk aversion coefficient and the implied risk-free rate; (ii) compared to alternative consumption measures, industrial energy performs well in explaining the cross-sectional variation in stock returns with the lowest implied risk aversion and pricing errors; (iii) the industrial energy consumption risk model performs equally well as the Fama–French three-factor model in the cross-sectional asset pricing tests; and (iv) total energy consumption risk is priced in the presence of the Fama–French factor risks.     

Inferring information from the S&P 500, CBOE VIX,and CBOE SKEW indices

This paper compares the information extracted from the S&P 500, CBOE VIX, and CBOE SKEW indices for the S&P 500 index option pricing. Based on our empirical analysis, VIX is a very informative index for option prices. Whether adding the SKEW or the VIX term structure can improve the option pricing performance depends on the model we choose. Roughly speaking, the VIX term structure is informative for some models, while the SKEW is very noisy and does not contain much important information for option prices. This paper also extends Zhang et al. (2017, J Futures Markets, 37, 211–237) into three typical affine models.