A methodology of technological foresight: A proposal and field study

The study of one's own business future is a distinctive element of a business strategy. Innovative companies are aware of weak signals coming from the periphery and of trends in their industry, and they monitor the coherence between weak signals and trends (the external perspective) and strategic direction (the internal perspective).The literature today does not provide well-framed and complete methodologies for assessing the coherence among trends, vision and products. Therefore, the authors propose a methodology called “the methodology of future coverage”, which measures how much the strategy oriented to the future effectively covers trends and megatrends. In other words, it helps to check the contents and the coherence of the firm' vision and products and those of the trends that will have relevance for the future of the industry, and this process supplies firms with supplementary information on how to improve. The authors tested this methodology and exemplified its use via the Eurotech case study, employing longitudinal analysis.The methodology can be useful as a tool for diagnosing the coherence between trends and company strategy. Moreover, from a dynamic point of view, it can be used as a tool to check on the company's progress in following up on trends by adapting its strategy over time. Finally, the methodology can be also used as a tool for cross-comparison of the “level of future orientation” among companies in the same industry.     

覆盖目标信息收集在室内分布系统设计中的应用

无线覆盖是网络规划设计的核心。在无线室内分布设计中,覆盖目标信息收集的好坏决定了网络的覆盖质量。本文重点介绍覆盖目标信息收集在无线室内分布系统设计规划中的应用。     

中国政府住房保障范围的变迁与现状研究

在梳理政府住房保障范围的划分标准与影响因素的基础上,通过回顾中国政府住房保障范围的阶段性变迁历程与现状,将中国政府住房保障范围上存在的主要问题总结为三方面,即政府定位不明确,住房政策缺乏长期目标和法律保障;中央政府和地方政府对于住房保障范围存在不同的诉求;现阶段政府住房保障范围过于宽泛,但户籍壁垒又使大量低收入居民处于住房保障之外。由此,提出了解决我国政府住房保障范围问题的相应对策。     

中国失业社会保险制度改革探讨

当前,我国的失业社会保险制度出现了统筹层次低、覆盖面较窄、促进再就业的功能弱化等问题,需要通过适时提高统筹层次、扩大企业社会保险的覆盖面和完善失业社会保险促进再就业等措施进一步改革完善。     

The effect of a Durbin–Watson pretest on confidence intervals in regression

Consider a linear regression model and suppose that our aim is to find a confidence interval for a specified linear combination of the regression parameters. In practice, it is common to perform a Durbin–Watson pretest of the null hypothesis of zero first‐order autocorrelation of the random errors against the alternative hypothesis of positive first‐order autocorrelation. If this null hypothesis is accepted then the confidence interval centered on the ordinary least squares estimator is used; otherwise the confidence interval centered on the feasible generalized least squares estimator is used. For any given design matrix and parameter of interest, we compare the confidence interval resulting from this two‐stage procedure and the confidence interval that is always centered on the feasible generalized least squares estimator, as follows. First, we compare the coverage probability functions of these confidence intervals. Second, we compute the scaled expected length of the confidence interval resulting from the two‐stage procedure, where the scaling is with respect to the expected length of the confidence interval centered on the feasible generalized least squares estimator, with the same minimum coverage probability. These comparisons are used to choose the better confidence interval, prior to any examination of the observed response vector.     

机构投资者会主动管理媒体报道吗？

文章实证检验了机构投资者是否存在通过管理媒体报道来获取超额收益的行为。研究发现：（1）媒体报道对股票价格的影响符合“注意力驱动效应”,即媒体报道数量与股票超额收益显著正相关;（2）机构投资者会利用媒体报道的这一效应来获取股票超额收益,即机构投资者存在利用媒体来制造信息噪音以引导市场热点的短期炒作行为,进而验证了“主动媒体管理”假说;（3）机构投资者的媒体管理行为会提高其所持有股票未来大幅下跌的可能性,即带来更大的股价崩盘风险。文章将机构投资者行为和媒体报道进行了有机结合,拓展了相关领域的研究文献,而且研究结论为进一步规范机构投资者行为和媒体报道提供了经验证据。     

The relationship between risk-neutral and actual default probabilities: the credit risk premium

The study investigates empirically the relationship between the risk-neutral measure Q and the real-world measure P. We study the ratio between the risk-neutral and actual default intensities, which we call the coverage ratio or the relative credit risk premium. Actual default intensities are derived from rating agencies annual transition matrices, while risk-neutral default intensities are bootstrapped from CDS quotes of European corporates. We quantify the average risk premium and its changes over time. Compared to related literature, special attention is given to the effects of the recent financial and European sovereign crises. We find that average credit risk premia rose substantially and that post-crisis levels are still higher than those observed before the financial crisis. This observation is especially true for high-quality debt and if it persists, it will have an impact on corporates funding costs. The quantification and revision of risk premia contributes to the discussion of the credit spread puzzle and could give extra insights in valuation models that start from real-world estimates. Our work is furthermore important in the context of state aid assessment. The real economic value (REV) methodology, applied by the European Commission to evaluate impaired portfolios, is based on a long-term average risk premium.     

Analyst coverage and stock return synchronicity: evidence from regulation changes in China’s IPO market

This article investigates the relation between analyst coverage and stock return synchronicity in the IPO market. Using a unique data set in China from 2005 to 2012, we find a significantly different effect of analyst coverage on synchronicity before and after the implementation of important 2009 IPO regulation changes in China. Specifically, we document that analyst coverage reduces synchronicity but that this effect is significant only after 2009. In addition, we extend this research to further distinguish the information production role of underwriter and independent analysts. We find that prior to 2009, underwriter analysts’ coverage decreases synchronicity but independent analysts’ coverage does not. However, in the post-2009 period, both types of analyst coverage are significantly and inversely associated with synchronicity. Overall, our results support analysts’ role as producers of firm-specific information in an emerging IPO market and shows that this role depends on the institutional environment.     

走出责任保险伦理困境的观念路径

责任保险市场面临着严峻的伦理困境,扩张冲动与伦理焦虑之间存在紧张关系。为此,应基于观念与技术的二元立场系统审视责任保险,关注其正当性基础转换的现实,坚持保险伦理一般伦理相区别、侵权责任确定与保险赔偿责任确定相界分的原则,注意保险技术因应保险道德危机的相机性,以矫正伦理焦虑背后观念性偏差、消除扩张责任保险的观念性障碍。     

财政保障新型农村养老保险制度实施策略分析——以“全覆盖”目标为视角

新型农村养老保险制度的"全覆盖"目标从预期的2020年提前至2012年实现,比预定时间提前了8年。新型农村养老保险制度的实施存在养老金替代率低、对农民选择缴费补贴机制激励性不足、政府财政资源配置不科学等障碍,需从财政视角出发,在补贴制度设计、缴费档次安排以及政府间财力分担等方面实施有效的政策,进一步完善我国的新型农村养老保险制度。