Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the Brazilian yield curve and expected inflation

This study investigates how unexpected announcements in Brazilian and U.S. macroeconomic indicators affect the term structure of nominal interest rates, as well as implicit inflation expectations and real interest rates. Using daily data from March 2005 to December 2012, we employ an extended Vector Error Correction Model to take into account nonstationarity and the long-term equilibrium among different maturities of those curves. We found empirical evidence that macroeconomic surprises, domestic (Brazilian) and external (U.S. American), which lead the market to believe that there might be a higher risk of inflation or an overheated economy, raise nominal interest rates, implicit expected inflation and real interest rates. Surprisingly, in relation to the efficient-market hypothesis, we found that some macroeconomic surprises have a lagged effect on the yield curves. We also tested the impact of the global financial crisis of 2007–09 and found that the crisis affected significantly the direction and magnitude of the responses to macroeconomic news.     

Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach

This paper develops a flexible approach to combine forecasts of future spot rates with forecasts from time-series models or macroeconomic variables. We find empirical evidence that, accounting for both regimes in interest rate dynamics, and combining forecasts from different models, helps improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance for US short-term rates. Imposing restrictions from the expectations hypothesis on the forecasting model are found to help at long forecasting horizons.     

实证会计研究的有效性及其评价——兼评中国当前的实证会计研究

实证会计研究的目标在于更好地解释和预测会计实务，造就要求实证会计研究本身必须是有效的，唯有如此，才可能得出用以解释和预测会计实务的正确结论。要保证一项实证会计研究有效，必须同时满足两个条件：一是前提真实，二是推理正确。本文从逻辑学的角度，系统地分析了前提真实性的意义及其封中国实证会计研究有效性可能产生的影响。通过封实证会计研究的有效性及其评价进行研究，希望能封从事实证研究的国内学者提供参考，并封提高中国实证会计研究的整体水平有所帮助。     

How Islamic are Islamic banks? A non-linear assessment of Islamic rate – conventional rate relations

In this paper, we perform a non-linear assessment of Islamic rate – conventional rate relations for the case of Malaysia. Using monthly data covering the period January 1999 to November 2016, we find strong evidence supporting non-linear reactions of the Islamic investment rates to conventional rates in the long run and/or short-run for all matched maturities. More precisely, the Islamic investment rates exhibit faster upward movement (slower downward movement) in responses to conventional deposit rate increases (decreases). The asymmetric pricing behaviour of Islamic banks however tends to weaken as maturity lengthens. Accordingly, we infer that Islamic banks do not rigidly peg their investment deposit rates to conventional deposit rates as some have claimed in questioning the Islamicity of Islamic banks.     

高层住宅建筑施工中防渗漏技术的应用

高层住宅建筑施工越来越多,住宅用户对于建筑的质量要求越来越高,一旦出现渗漏的现象,将会造成用户的不满,而且影响到了高层建筑住宅上的信誉和形象,需要加强对防渗漏施工技术的有效应用,才能够避免出现渗漏的现象,从而保证高层住宅施工的总体质量.本文主要围绕高层建筑防渗漏施工技术的应用整改问题和论述,主要是结合高层住宅建筑的各个...     

Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market

This paper studies the predictive ability of a variety of models in forecasting the yield curve for the Brazilian fixed income market. We compare affine term structure models with a variation of the Nelson–Siegel exponential framework developed by Diebold and Li [Diebold, F., & Li, C. (2006). Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Yields. Journal of Econometrics, 130, 337–364]. Empirical results suggest that forecasts made with the latter methodology are superior, and appear to be more accurate at long horizons than other different benchmark forecasts. These results are important for policy-makers, as well as for portfolio and risk managers. Further research could study the predictive ability of such models in other emerging markets.     

上市公司违规及证券市场监管的研究综述

介绍了国内外关于上市公司违规以及证券市场监管的研究进展,揭示了建立包含有效的监管手段的外部监管机制以及建立以合理的公司治理结构为基础的内部公司约束机制的重要性,为规范上市公司行为提供了思路。     

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in South Africa and Nigeria: structural breaks analysis

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates has continued to generate interest from both the academia and financial industry players for many years. This study conducts an empirical investigation into the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for the two largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa – South Africa and Nigeria. Our methodology accounts for structural breaks in the data and the long-run relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets. The results of multivariate causality tests with structural breaks showed that causality runs from exchange rates to domestic stock prices in Nigeria (flow channel) while in South Africa, no causality exists between domestic stock prices and exchange rates. The results also reveal that there is causality from the London stock market to both countries’ stock markets, thus showing that international stock markets are driving both the Nigerian and South African stock markets.     

随机利率下的复合Poisson-Geometric风险模型及破产概率

本文主要研究的是在随机利率下保费收入为复合Poisson-Geometric过程的风险模型,在随机利率为levy过程的情况下,得到了破产概率满足的积分方程,以及得到最终破产概率的上下界所满足的积分不等式,以此作为保险公司经营的预警信号更具有现实意义。