Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data

Recently various exchange rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. Technically, these stochastic equilibrium models are diffusion processes which have to be estimated by discretely sampled observations. Using daily exchange rate data prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001, we develop a rigorous estimation procedure. Our estimates point to an increasing interventionist economic policy in the run-up to the Greek EMU entrance. A comparison of this econometric indication with policy information provided (ex-post) by the Bank of Greece (BoG) in its Annual Report 2000 reveals that the BoG indeed pursued such an active policy stance (so-called institutional frontloading strategies).      

基于径流路径优化的校园景观海绵化 改造研究——以天津大学青年湖片区为例

校园中以硬质铺装为主的场地能够满足师生日常公 共活动需求,然而集中的不透水地面、屋面会增大场地雨洪压 力。在保证硬质下垫面功能属性的同时,实现雨洪的有效管控 是校园景观海绵化改造的核心问题之一。通过获取高精度的 场地空间数据,构建SWMM概化模型,分析不同暴雨重现期 下不同场景的径流量、峰值流量、峰现时间及不同排水口的流 量变化规律,得出基于径流路径优化的校园景观海绵化改造对 策,即以优化雨水径流路径为导向,适当组织线性GSI措施, 引导产汇流方向,降低场地中有效不透水面积(EIA),减轻场 地雨洪压力。最后结合青年湖片区的景观现状,提出以优化径 流路径为导向的系统化、立体化、适地性、可观赏的校园雨洪 管理模式,对于中小尺度公共空间海绵化改造实践具有实操价 值和指导意义。     

Production and the Real Rate of Interest: A Sample Path Equilibrium

This paper examines a multiperiod production economy where investors do not observe the realizations of productivity factors or security expected returns. Unlike previous work, which expresses the equilibrium conditions as functions of unobservable (to both real-world investors and empiricists) moments of the distributions of returns, we express the equilibrium real rate as a function of the observable sample paths of realizations of returns. We provide a framework for empirically testing this and other asset pricing models without outside-the-model econometric assumptions needed for producing the unobservable moments of returns. We construct versions of the restrictions for any time interval between observations.     

浅论施工组织设计在高速公路管理中的有效应用

施工阶段高速公路施工组织设计,是确保项目正常施工的前提和基础。随着高速公路行业的迅猛发展,高速公路施工组织设计的正确应用越来越重要。本文将对高速公路施工组织设计中出现的相关问题展开分析,提出动态思想应用到施工组织设计中,以期实现施工组织设计在高速公路项目中的有效应用。     

农民工工资收入偏低分析——现实、宏观效应与原因

农民工工资收入长期处于一个较低的水平,然而,农民工对我国GDP及其增长做出了巨大的贡献。农民工对GDP增长的高贡献与其较低的工资收入水平导致了我国社会有效需求不足。农民工工资收入偏低的核心机制是古典产权制度下的工资市场定位。因此,要解决这个问题,必须进行相应的经济体制改革,构建和谐社会。     

试论建筑工程全过程造价的控制措施

我国现代化建设进程加快使得工程项目增多,成本造价控制成为工程建设项目的难题。而工程造价控制效果的好坏常受到多方面因素影响,立项、设计、施工、竣工等每个过程都会影响到造价的高低。这些因素的影响作用也决定了造价管理控制时应当建立良好的管理思路,针对这一点,本文重点分析了建筑工程全过程造价控制的相关策略。     

Mortgage product diversity: responding to consumer demand or protecting lender profit? An asymmetric panel analysis

This article explores determinants of mortgage product diversity for owner-occupied and investment loans in the Australian housing mortgage market. From 2001 to 2012, 65 lenders introduced 1220 mortgage products in Australia. We examine whether the product proliferation was a result of consumer demand or a response to pressure to lower lending rates. We find that consumer demand for mortgages does not have a significant relationship with the number of mortgage products, but that decreases in the policy interest rate are highly significant as an explanatory variable for product proliferation. Such behaviour is consistent with information obfuscation, reducing the ease with which consumers can compare lending rates. Further, the relationship between mortgage products offered and the policy interest rate is asymmetric: decreases in the cash rate are associated with increased mortgage products offered, but increases in the cash rate have a more muted effect on decreasing the number of products.     

Endogenous Money,Fiscal Policy,Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Comment on Palley,Tymoigne and Wray

One of the main collective contributions of the various heterodox schools of monetary thought, such as circuit theory, Post Keynesian theory, modern money theory (MMT) and others, has been to stress the importance of the endogeneity of money via bank credit creation. It is necessary to stress the notion of a collective contribution because of the various claims and counter-claims to academic priority made in the literature. The recent exchange between T.I. Palley and E. Tymoigne and L.R. Wray in this journal provides a clear example of this. This response examines the differences between these writers in some detail.     

What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries

The model derived in this paper yields testable implications concerning the long‐run co‐movements of real exchange rates, relative labor productivity, the trade balance and terms of trade. Countries with relatively higher output growth, trade deficits or improved terms of trade are found to have more appreciated real exchange rates, with the main channel of transmission working through the relative price of nontraded goods. Exogenous terms‐of‐trade shocks are found to be the most important determinant of long‐run movements in the real exchange rate for Denmark and Norway, while demand shocks account for most of the long‐run variance in the real exchange rate for Finland and Sweden.     

From Financial Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela

Recent work suggests a connection between domestic debt and external default. We examine potential linkages for Venezuela, where the evidence reveals a nexus among domestic debt, financial repression, and external vulnerability. The financial repression tax (as a share of GDP) is similar to OECD economies, in spite of higher debt ratios in the latter. The financial repression “tax rate” is higher in years of exchange controls and legislated interest rate ceilings. We document a link between domestic disequilibrium and a weakening of the net foreign asset position via private capital flight. We suggest these findings are not unique to Venezuela.