行为公司财务的最新发展及其启示

行为金融学目前已逐渐成为金融学研究中的一个重要领域,在它的影响下,公司财务领域内也形成了行为公司财务的研究范式。与经典的公司财务理论相比,行为公司财务引入了行为因素的影响,它认为外部市场的非有效性和内部管理者的非理性影响着公司的财务决策和公司价值最大化的行为。文章简单总结了行为公司财务的最新研究进展,也就是市场的非有效性和管理者的非理性对公司的融资政策、投资政策、股利政策和并购行为等各方面的影响。针对目前我国资本市场的非有效性,文章认为在我国上市公司的财务研究中应该引入行为公司财务的理论范式和研究方法,才能使得研究前提和结果符合我国的实际经济情况。     

Central bank interventions and implied exchange rate correlations

This paper examines the effects of the foreign exchange market interventions by the Bank of Japan on the ex ante correlations between the JPY/USD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD exchange rates. The correlation estimates used in the analysis are derived from the market prices of OTC currency options. The results show that central bank interventions significantly affect the market expectations about future exchange rate co-movements. In particular, we find that interventions tend to temporarily increase the ex ante correlations among the major exchange rates. However, our results also suggest that intervention episodes are associated with lower-than-average levels of exchange rate correlations.     

Corporate cash flow and stock price exposures to foreign exchange rate risk

This paper estimates the foreign exchange rate exposure of 6917 U.S. nonfinancial firms on the basis of stock prices and corporate cash flows. The results show that several firms are significantly exposed to at least one of the foreign exchange rates Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and Euro, and significant exposures are more frequent at longer horizons. The percentage of firms for which stock price and earnings exposures are significantly different is relatively low, though it increases with time horizon. Overall, the impact of exchange rate risk on stock prices and cash flows is similar and determined by a related set of economic factors.     

如何破解人民币国际化中的特里芬难题--让利率和汇率回归常态

任何一国主权信用货币在国际化过程中都会面临特里芬难题,而人民币国际化中的特里芬难题有其特殊性,如何破解这一难题值得我们深入考虑。文章从分析中国投资驱动、出口导向的增长模式入手,提出中国应尽快打破经济僵局和转变增长方式,让利率和汇率回归常态。更进一步地,文章认为中国应继续完善人民币的国际货币发行机制,同时较为稳步的推进资本项目可兑换。     

Interest Rates and Credit Risk

This paper explores the effects of shifts in interest rates on corporate leverage and default in the context of a dynamic model in which the link between leverage and default risk comes from the lower incentives of overindebted entrepreneurs to guarantee firm survival. The need to finance new investment pushes firms' leverage ratio above some state‐contingent target toward which firms gradually adjust through earnings retention. The response to interest rate rises and cuts is both asymmetric and heterogeneously distributed across firms. Our results help rationalize some of the evidence regarding the risk‐taking channel of monetary policy.     

Distribution of parallel exchange rates in African countries

This paper investigates the distribution of parallel exchange rates in African countries using exploratory data analysis techniques and model fitting. Stable laws are fitted to empirical distributions using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Empirical evidence supports the stable hypothesis these distributions are positively skewed and have tails that are much heavier than Gaussian counterparts. The stable hypothesis is further supported by the “converging variance test,” which suggests that these distributions have infinite variance.     

Transportation rates and plant location in oligopolistic competition with sequential entry

This paper examines the impact of quantity-discounted transportation rates on location patterns of oligopolistic competition with sequential entry. When transportation rates are constant, Hwang and Mai (1990) show that the entrant locates at the same point as the existing firms if the production function exhibits constant returns to scale. The entrant will locate farther away from (closer to) the market than the existing firms do if the production function exhibits increasing (decreasing) returns to scale. This paper shows that Hwang and Mai's results need not hold when transportation rates are a function of quantity shipped and distance traveled.