Productivity cost model of the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis with abatacept

Background: The cost of the biological drug abatacept may be partly offset by reductions in the cost of productivity losses due to employee absences and reduced effectiveness at work because of rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

Methods: This was a 1-year productivity cost model based on epidemiologic and economic data. The setting was private industry in the US and the primary outcome measure was the difference in the costs of lost productivity and drug treatment with and without abatacept (‘cost difference’).

Results: The lost productivity cost of RA for a firm of 10,000 was $1.69 million, largely due to the cost of RA-related absenteeism ($1.55 million) rather than to worker displacement ($0.12 million) or care-giving for spouses with RA ($0.02 million). In the base case analysis (excluding presenteeism), 37% of the acquisition cost of abatacept was offset by reductions in the cost of RA-related productivity losses. In some industry groups (Utilities and Finance), and in models that included presenteeism, reductions in lost productivity costs exceeded the abatacept cost.

Conclusions: Much of the acquisition cost of abatacept may be offset by reductions in the cost of productivity losses due to RA. Abatacept treatment could be cost saving in some industry groups.     

Consumer versus Expert Hazard Identification: A Mental Models Study of Mutation‐bred Rice

Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in the management of potential risks has been low. Various reasons behind this have been identified, chiefly a disagreement between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus, and perceptions of insufficient openness about uncertainties in risk assessment. Whilst previous research has almost exclusively focused on genetically modified foods, the present paper investigates plant varieties developed by means of mutation breeding, a less‐debated class of novel foods. Two studies were conducted that investigated the mental models of experts and laypeople. The results revealed that the mental models of both groups differed in terms of scope, depth and the role of uncertainty. Furthermore, a number of misconceptions became apparent in the study of laypeople's mental models, often related to the regulatory system governing risk assessments of novel foods. Critical issue are outlined and communication needs are discussed.     

Aggregate trading behaviour of technical models and the yen/dollar exchange rate 1976–2007

The study analyzes the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen/dollar exchange rate. I show first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 2007. I then show that the aggregate transactions and positions of technical models exert an excess demand pressure on currency markets since they are mostly on the same side of the market. When technical models produce trading signals almost all of them are either buying or selling, when they maintain open positions they are either long or short. A strong interaction prevails between exchange rate movements and the transactions triggered by technical models. An initial rise of the exchange rate due to news, e.g., is systematically lengthened through a sequence of technical buy signals.     

异质交易者视角下的人民币外汇市场微观结构模型研究

本文基于异质交易者视角构建了人民币外汇市场微观结构模型以考察市场中基本面交易者和技术交易者的动态调整机制和人民币汇率的运动规律。通过对模型的求解,本文得到不同情况下汇率收敛于基本面汇率的市场微观结构条件和运动轨迹方程。当汇率基本面受到重大的外部冲击时,技术交易者、基本面交易者和做市商等参与者的相互作用会最终导致人民币汇率过度反应,汇率的运动轨迹会不断偏离汇率的基本面价值。而当外部冲击的大小在一定范围内时,人民币汇率会温和的最终趋向汇率的基本面价值。研究结论在一定程度上解释了汇率超调之谜和非线性之谜产生的机制,为促进人民币外汇市场稳健发展提供了政策启示。     

张家界旅行社人员流动效益分析

张家界是以旅游为主导的专业化旅游城市。伴随着旅游经济的发展,旅行社人力资源管理矛盾日益突出,旅行社人员流动频繁的情况尤严重。控制旅行社人员流动,根本目的在于控制过高的人员流动率,应留住核心人才,优化企业人才结构,提高企业与员工的双向信任度,从而增强企业凝聚力,创造真正的企业文化,最终提高企业效益。     

Impact of novel agents on patient-relevant outcomes in patients with previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia who are not eligible for fludarabine-based therapy

Background: Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is an orphan disease that primarily affects the elderly. The majority of symptomatic patients eligible for frontline treatment are unfit for fludarabine based chemoimmunotherapy. Historical treatment includes chlorambucil (Chl), bendamustine/rituximab (BR), and chlorambucil/rituximab/ChlR combination. Clinical guidelines now recommend the use of novel agents, such as ibrutinib (Ibr), in both frontline and relapse settings and other novel agents, such as idelalisib (with rituximab), in relapse settings. Despite compelling clinical results for novel agents, follow-up in clinical trials is relatively short and, thus, the comparative long-term benefits are still unknown.

Materials and methods: The authors developed a simulation model to generate treatment specific lifetime estimates of Overall Survival (OS) and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) for treatment with BR, Chl, ChlR, and Ibr. Two potential clinical scenarios were modelled: with and without novel agents for treating CLL. The model was based on health states relating to first- and second-line progression-free survival (PFS), post-progression survival, and death.

Results: Where novel agents were assumed unavailable, mean OS ranged from 5.4–8.5 years and QALYs from 3.5–6.1. Where novel agents were available, the mean OS increased to 10.0 years, with a corresponding increase in QALYs to 7.6. Frontline Ibr use followed by Physician’s Choice, including novel agents at relapse, resulted in projected increase in OS of between 18% (1.5 years) and 85% (4.6 years), corresponding to a 25–117% increase in QALYs, compared with currently available traditional therapies.

Limitations: The limitations of this analysis include immature OS data and the assumption of equivalent efficacy across all novel agents in terms of their impact on PFS and OS.

Conclusions: The use of novel agents is predicted to yield substantive gains in predicted lifetime OS and QALY improvements compared to traditional therapies in CLL patients who are ineligible for fludarabine-based chemoimmunotherapy.     

信息不对称下金融衍生品市场过度投机成因分析

金融衍生品市场应规避由过度投机导致的风险。从信息不对称角度,分析金融衍生品市场中过度投机的成因;并运用加入可选择风险因素的委托-代理简化模型分析指出在信息不对称下,由于缺少代理人约束机制,导致代理人风险成本不变,最终产生过度投机现象。最后,尝试性地提出我国金融衍生品市场风险防范的具体建议。     

中外租赁业发展之比较

现代租赁业发展至今,已有四、五十年的历史。由于租赁能够为承租人,出租人,供应商、政府财政等各方带来种种好处,近年来,世界各国的租赁市场均在迅速发展。然而,由于各国的经济、金融发展水平,市场化发展程度,以及经济及政治环境不同,其租赁业的发展也存在异同。本文将从租赁准则、租赁机构、租赁现状三个方面,对中外不同国家的租赁业发展进行比较、分析,最终总结出中国租赁业未来的发展趋势。     

基于新冠肺炎疫情后三亚旅游业高质量发展的研究

随着新型冠状肺炎疫情在全国各地蔓延,给国内的旅游业造成巨大的冲击.借此,文章从新冠肺炎疫情对三亚旅游业产生的影响进行研究,依据《三亚市有效应对疫情支持旅游企业发展十条政策措施》(三府办〔2020〕19号)的通知,同时,借鉴2003年非典时期,张家界应对疫情成功有效的措施,有针对性地提出发挥以政府为主导的策略和以涉旅企业...     

煤炭资源枯竭型城市工矿用地变化驱动机制研究 ——基于利用主体视角

研究目的:基于利用主体视角探析煤炭资源枯竭型城市工矿用地变化驱动机制。研究方法:以萍乡市安源区为例,运用土地利用动态度和土地利用转移矩阵分析工矿用地变化特征,采用用地单元转换概率表达主体决策行为,基于多智能体系统构建工矿用地变化模拟模型定量研究其驱动机制。研究结果:(1)安源区现状工矿用地和工矿废弃地数量分别呈减少和增加趋势,其中工矿废弃地变化较为剧烈;(2)政府、工矿企业、农民和居民的土地利用行为直接或间接地造成了工矿用地变化,其中政府的决策权重最高,居民最低;(3)工矿企业决策受煤炭资源储量影响最大,农民耕地和园林地的利用决策受土壤质量影响最大,距农村居民点距离和环境质量则分别是农民和居民公园选址决策的主要影响因素。研究结论:安源区工矿用地的变化反映了城市转型发展时期土地利用变化特征,工矿用地的整治和再利用应综合考虑不同主体的决策行为和主要影响因素,工矿用地变化模拟模型可以定量反映主体决策对研究区工矿用地变化的驱动机制,为其利用与管理提供科学依据与决策参考。