The new exchange rate policy in the Asian emerging economies – goodbye trouble,hello comfort?

In this paper, we discuss new aspects of exchange rate policy that can be observed in the Asian emerging economies. In the first place, we show the alternative regimes they may choose and their respective pros and cons. Secondly, we concentrate on the recent strategy of systematic undervaluation of one's currency – figuring prominently among ‘big’ Asian players such as China and India – and the most likely implications of such a strategy for domestic allocation, distribution and stabilization goals. With the background of Germany's experiences in 1969, almost on the eve of the Bretton Woods' system collapse, we model a speculative attack on an undervalued currency in the vein of the Flood–Garber seminal paper from 1984. Now, however, the country in concern (just like India and China) possesses strong rather than weak fundamentals. The continuous accumulation of international reserves, in addition, leads to the question of an ‘optimal management’ of foreign exchange reserves in Asian emerging economies with regard to size and composition. We finally propose a sequence of reforms/policies that should be implemented in those Asian emerging economies on their still long journey to a regime featured by autonomous monetary policy, flexible exchange rate and capital mobility. A brief summary and an outlook for future research close the paper.     

谈当代马克思主义发展观的传承与创新

当代中国的发展观是一个与时俱进的理论体系,它是对马克思主义发展观的传承。这个理论体系具体体现为：由“两手抓”到“三个明”的全面发展;从“发展是硬道理”到“发展是党执政兴国的第一要务”;从“以经济建设为中心”到“以人为本”的全面发展,从“鼓励一部分地区先富起来”到“统筹和协调发展”;从加快“现代化”进程到“可持续发展”等。随着社会和时代的发展,这个理论体系将不断地丰富和发展。     

大庆市资源型产业结构转型对策研究

资源型城市的产业结构转型问题是困扰东北区城市经济经济持续发展的重要障碍。本文以我国最大的石油城市－大庆市为例,探讨了东北区资源型城市产业结构的特征、转型面临的问题,并提出了相应的对策。     

资本约束、风险管理与商业银行成长

基于资本必须覆盖风险命题的要求，银行的风险管理能力决定了银行的资本规模和资本的配置，银行资本管理实质上等价于风险管理，资本约束实质上就是风险约束。资本软约束是制约中国商业银行成长的主要障碍之一，但仅仅致力于资本充足率问题的解决并不能保证我国商业银行的可持续成长，风险约束是制约我国商业银行成长的瓶颈。只有从制度、技术和经营战略等方面入手，不断提高风险管理能力，建立以资本约束为核心的业务增长模式和资源配置方式，尽快实现成长模式由资金约束到资本约束的转变，中国商业银行才能在效益、质量和规模协调发展的基础上实现持续成长。     

低碳物流探析

低碳物流是物流产业在低碳经济背景下发展的新阶段,其与低碳经济的发展理念保持一致。中国物流产业存在低碳意识薄弱、装备和技术水平落后、信息化水平低、粗放经营等问题。建立低碳物流,应积极引进或开发低碳物流技术,建立低碳物流信息系统,推行共同配送、第三方物流和逆向物流的运作体系,同时还应有政府在金融、税收政策和法律法规方面的支持。     

Stackelberg equilibrium with many leaders and followers. The case of zero fixed costs

I study a version of the Stackelberg game with many identical firms in which leaders and followers use a continuous cost function with no fixed cost. Using lattice theoretical methods I provide a set of conditions that guarantee that the game has an equilibrium in pure strategies. With convex costs the model shows the same properties as a quasi-competitive Cournot model. The same happens with concave costs, but only when the number of followers is small. When this number is large the leaders preempt entry. I study the comparative statics and the limit behavior of the equilibrium and I show how the main determinants of market structure interact. More competition between the leaders always displaces the followers. Instead, how a stronger threat of entry affects the equilibrium depends on the technology. With strictly convex costs it is the followers that eventually displace the leaders.     

Enlarging the EMU to the east: what effects on trade?

The purpose of this article is to assess the implications of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) accession of eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) on their share of EMU-12 imports. Overcoming biases related to endogeneity, omitted variables and sample selection, our results indicate that the common currency has boosted intra-EMU imports by 7%. Under the assumption that the same relationship between the explanatory variables and imports will hold for EMU-CEEC trade, we intend to predict the future impact of the Euro. Our findings suggest that except for the least integrated countries, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, all CEECs can expect increases in the EMU-12 import share.

房地产属性、收入差距与房价变动趋势

以往关于收入差距与房价之间关系的研究,较少兼顾房地产的消费与投资双重属性。文章基于双重属性的角度,首先从理论上阐述了收入差距与房价之间的动态关系。在经济发展水平较低的情况下,房地产的消费属性凸显,收入差距扩大会抑制房价上涨;随着经济的进一步发展,房地产单一属性不明显,收入差距变化对房价不存在显著影响;当经济发展水平较高时,房地产投资属性占优,收入差距扩大会促进房价上涨。进一步对理论结果进行实证研究发现,整体上我国收入差距与房价之间无显著相关关系,单一属性不明显;但就省际差异而言,在经济发展水平较高的省份,收入差距促进了房价上涨,而在经济发展水平较低的省份,收入差距则抑制了房价上涨。随着时间的变化,收入差距由抑制房价上涨转变为促进房价上涨。     

关于电子产业技术创新影响因素的实证分析

对中国产业技术创新诱导因素的分析必须在具体的经济、制度环境下进行。以市场集中度、产业内企业规模、产权制度基础、产业开放程度为影响因子,对电子产业的实证分析显示,市场集中度、产权制度变化与产业创新能力的相关性不强,出口与创新负相关,增加产业内大企业的比重、适度增加进口对创新有促进作用。     

Racing in two dimensions

In this paper we study an industry in which there is an ongoing sequence of R&D races between two firms. Firms are engaged in product innovation. Products are horizontally and vertically differentiated. There are two key characteristics/dimensions to products, and the level at which these are embodied in products can be increased by R&D. At each time firms can spend R&D on improving their product in one or both dimensions. We allow the possibility of economies scope — so R&D undertaken in one dimension can spillover to the other. The question we are interested in is whether a firm that is ahead in a single dimension but behind in another will focus all its R&D effort in the area in which it is ahead (product specialisation), or whether it will try to do R&D in both dimensions in the hope that it might get ahead in both and end up with a superproduct that dominates in both characteristics. The outcome of this R&D competition determines a Markov transition probability matrix determining the evolution of the industry. We show that when the R&D technology is characterized by constant returns then the only steady-state outcome is one in which the economy stays forever in a position in which one firm produces a super-product and the other gives up doing R&D altogether. This outcome is unaffected by the degree of economies of scope. When the R&D technology is characterised by decreasing returns, then the industry will visit all states and so will exhibit both product specialisation and superproduct dominance at various times. Now the extent of economies of scope matters and we show that the greater the extent of economies of scope, the less likely is the industry to exhibit product dominance, and the more likely it is to exhibit product specialisation.