Dynamic estimation of the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Asia

This paper studies the relationship between trade openness and output growth for a sample of twenty-three Asian countries using both a static OLS and a dynamic ECM estimation models. At the country specific level, the findings of this study provide robust empirical evidence indicating that higher revealed trade openness is not the main engine explaining the Asian economic-growth miracle. In particular, the authors find that physical capital accumulation is at the core of the observed long-run output per worker growth. At the regional level, the authors observe a marked difference between the pre and post 1997–1998 financial crisis, whereas, in the post period, trade openness has a positive and significant effect on output growth. In general, the results from the dynamic estimations prove that the conventional OLS static estimates underestimate the effect of investment on output growth. In addition, the dynamic model allows for a separation of gains from trade between short term and long term. The paper results also provide evidence in support of the idea that, countries with a growing degree of trade openness may experience faster per-capita output growth through gains in productivity associated to capital accumulation, rather than the assumed technological spillover effects from the trading sector. Again, at the regional level in the post financial crisis period both short term and long term gains from trade are relevant to growth. Why more trade does not necessarily imply faster growth at all levels of revealed trade openness growth, remains a conundrum.     

营商环境优化能够提升全球价值链分工地位吗*

本文基于世界银行发布的历年营商环境报告相关数据，从OECD ICIO提供的基础数据测算结果的基本事实出发，理论阐释了营商环境对攀升全球价值链的影响及可能机制。以此为理论先导，进一步利用跨国面板数据的计量检验发现：第一，营商环境优化的确对价值链分工地位具有显著正向作用；第二，上述正向作用不仅来自营商环境优化直接效应，而且还通过价值链迁移、创新活动激发、贸易条件改善等中介作用形成间接效应。据此，打造国际一流营商环境对促进中国攀升全球价值链具有重要支撑作用。     

Threshold effect of economic openness on bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the non-linear effects of two aspects of economic openness, namely, trade openness and financial openness, on banking system stability. We use a panel of 42 emerging markets from 2000 to 2014 to test whether bank risk-taking behaviour varies with the level of openness. We find that a higher degree of trade openness promotes bank stability linearly. Conversely, the non-linear effect of financial openness on bank risk-taking is evident. When the financial system is not sufficiently open, the impact of financial openness on bank stability is insignificant. However, as the domestic financial market becomes more open, financial openness can help discipline the behaviour of banks, making them more stable. We also find evidence that these effects are transmitted through the market discipline channel. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening the domestic regulatory framework and transparency as the economy becomes more integrated.     

Speculative bubbles in emerging stock markets and macroeconomic factors: A new empirical evidence for Asia and Latin America

The purpose of this study is firstly to test for the existence of periodically collapsing stock price bubbles in Asian and Latin American emerging stock markets for the period 1990–2009. We use the new non-cointegration test developed by Taylor and Peel (1998) with the Residuals-Augmented Least Squares (RALS) method of Im (1996) and Im and Schmidt (2008) for monthly data of price indexes and dividends. The results show that the hypothesis of formation of bubbles cannot be rejected for all of the studied emerging stock markets. This evidence implies that the co-integration relation between the prices and the dividends is not always supported, indicating that the stock prices do not reflect their fundamental values in the emerging stock markets. We then link speculative bubbles with macroeconomic and financial factors, which is an interesting contribution of this study. The degree of equity market openness is found to be the key factor, positively related to the formation of speculative bubbles in these markets.     

资本项目开放与经济增长研究的比较分析

近年来国外学者对资本项目开放与经济增长相关性进行了大量的实证研究,认为实证结论差异的原因在于度量指标和样本上存在区别。多数实证研究认为发展中国家开放资本项目的收益少于发达国家。本文认为其原因在于资本项目开放后,在增加投资、提高资源配置效率和增加政策约束性方面,发展中国家所获得的收益小于发达国家。因此,发展中国家开放资本项目必须具备一定的宏观经济和微观金融条件。     

美国涉华诉讼对科技交流政策的影响和展望

美国司法部的“中国行动计划”实施三年以来,给中美两国正常的科技合作和学术交流带来了严重的影响和打击。近期美国一系列涉华诉讼引发了各界讨论,迫切敦促美国政府机构在保护知识安全的同时必须兼顾学术开放。美国最高科技政策决策机构决意出台实施指南,解决科技学术界的紧迫关切。中美两国领导人的线上会晤也就全球关切的议题进行交流合作,释放了积极信号,我国亦应鼓励科研人员继续进行跨国界的科学探索,努力促成和恢复中美在科技、人文等领域的正常交流合作。     

财政支农的市场一体化效应及其政策

以增加农民收入从而支撑具有产业、区域特征的市场一体化为视角,对财政政策不同的支农方式和支农工具所产生的不同的农业市场一体化效应进行了分析,认为直接收入补贴明显好于价格支持;间接支农优于直接支农;而且不同的支农项目对市场一体化的促进作用差异显著。为此,提出了逐步减少价格支持,增加直接收入补贴,增加财政间接支农力度,引导农业生产要素多渠道利用,促进农业系统内外部合作,重视三农无形资产,建立适当监督机制等政策建议。     

我国金融开放和贸易开放的互动渠道研究

将新贸易理论的技术效应、规模经济、产业转移一起视为我国现阶段贸易开放和金融开放的互动渠道,计量发现仅有产业转移渠道在我国的贸易开放和金融开放的互动中起到显著正向作用;规模效应仅与贸易开放有显著正向互动;技术效应则仅与贸易开放存在反向互动,亦不能担当两者互动的中介作用。基于结构向量自回归的方差分解发现产业转移在贸易开放和金融开放的方差波动的解释能力中都占据重要地位,大于技术效应和规模效益之和。     

邓小平的务实品格及其对改革开放的影响和启示

一个国家或政党的领导人只有保持务实的品格,才能随时保持清醒的头脑,才可能在国家发展和世界舞台上展现出其独特的魅力。中国之所以有改革开放及其伟大成就,在很大程度上得益于邓小平的务实品格。邓小平的务实品格影响了中国的改革开放,是中国特色社会主义建设的宝贵精神财富,对坚持科学发展观与和谐社会的构建仍有着极其重要的启示。