The international policy trilemma in the post-Bretton Woods era

The international macroeconomic policy trilemma suggests that despite the appeal of exchange rate stability, financial account openness and monetary sovereignty, these cannot be achieved simultaneously. Using elements of Euclidean geometry, this paper proposes a new method for testing the trilemma and finds considerable evidence in support of it. Further tests indicate that, on average, policy configurations are not on the trilemma constraint, i.e. there is a degree of ‘trilemma-ineffectiveness’, which is costly for real output growth and price inflation. It is shown that these costs are associated with limited exchange rate stability and financial account openness.     

湖北省对外开放度对技术效率影响的实证分析

本文采用Batteseand Coelli提出的随机前沿分析模型来研究湖北对外开放度对技术效率进步的影响。主要采用frontier4．1和Eviews3．0软件进行了实证分析，得出结论：湖北省的技术效率是逐年提高的。湖北省对外开放度和技术效率之间存在正的协整关系和双向的因果关系。     

中国对外直接投资影响因素的实证分析——基于2007-2009年国际面板数据的考察

文章利用2007-2009年中国对相似文献   

Does good governance matter for FDI inflows? Evidence from Asian economies

This paper examines the effects of the six components of good governance on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in 15 Asian economies for the period 1996–2007 using a fixed effect model for panel data with heteroskedasticity corrected standard errors. The study also employs the feasible general least square (FGLS) and Prais-Winstein panel estimation methods in order to check the consistency of the results with the fixed effect model. The empirical results reveal that of the six components of good governance, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, rule of law, and control of corruption are the key determinants of FDI inflows, as they exhibit consistent results under different models. However, the study finds no significant evidence with voice and accountability and regulatory quality in FDI inflows. The study reveals that human capital, infrastructure, lending rate, and GDP growth rate also have a significant influence on FDI inflows. We conclude that a country which can enhance its governance environment in general is likely to attract more foreign direct investment despite offsetting deficiencies in other dimensions of good governance such as voice and accountability and regulatory quality.     

浙江省经济开放度与经济增长关系研究——基于VAR模型的动态分析

利用浙江省1988—2011年相关经济数据,选取外贸开放度、外资开放度和对外经济合作度3个指标,采用VAR模型对浙江省经济开放度与经济增长关系进行实证研究。结果表明:出口和对外经济合作是推动浙江省经济增长的主要力量;对外经济合作对经济增长的贡献不应被忽视;进口开放度对经济增长具有反向作用;经济增长是外资开放度的Granger原因;经济开放度是经济增长的Granger原因。浙江省经济要保持持续增长应进一步提高经济开放程度。     

Income Inequalities and International Trade in Goods and Services: Short- and Long-Run Evidence

In this article, we study the short- and long-run effects of trade openness in services on wage inequalities. The sample covers ten Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries from 1980 to 2005. We find a differentiated impact of trade in goods compared to trade in services: while trade in goods has a short- and a long-run impact on inequalities, trade in services has only long-run effects. Moreover, we also find that international trade in services has a stronger impact on inequalities than international trade in goods, and this effect does not concern only inequalities between top incomes and low incomes but also between top incomes and median incomes.     

Good or bad? The influence of FDI on productivity growth. An industry-level analysis

This paper attempts to reconcile the often inconclusive evidence on the role of FDI in the process of economic development by taking into account the heterogeneity both among industries and among countries. Using a comparable database at the industry level for 35 countries in the OECD, Asia and Eastern Europe from 1987 to 2002, we test for the influence of both stage of development and sectoral FDI patterns in the relationship between FDI and productivity growth. In certain industries and for the catching-up countries, a significant and positive relationship emerges when FDI coincides with high investment or export orientation.     

Linkage between international trade and economic growth in GCC countries: Empirical evidence from PMG estimation approach

This paper explores the empirical evidence of the links between economic growth and openness to international trade by controlling for auxiliary variables in the model for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the annual sample period 1980–2010. After testing for cointegration based on a recent bootstrap panel test, we employ the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique of M.H. Pesaran, Y. Shin, and R. Smith (1999. “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 94: 621–634) that is appropriate for drawing sharper conclusions in dynamic heterogeneous panels by considering long-run equilibrium relations. The results show evidence of cointegration relationship between the variables of interest, and reveal that economic growth responds positively to trade openness over both the short run and long run. The evidence is robust to using various trade openness measures and to alternative model specifications, suggesting thus the non-fragility of the linkage between economic growth and openness to international trade for the GCC region. Our findings are then promising and support the view that economic growth is directly and robustly linked to trade openness for the GCC countries.     

Impact of trade openness on GDP growth: Does TFP matter?

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study is to empirically explore the impact of trade openness on GDP growth initiating with the idea that trade openness cannot be fully characterized through the different openness measures only, we propose to account for total factor productivity (TFP) development level as an additional dimension of countries’ trade integration. Our empirical application is based on 35 years’ balanced panel of 82 countries spanning 1980–2014. To address the potential endogeneity issue, we use the system GMM estimator developed for dynamic panel data models. The results outline that there exists an interesting non-linear pattern between trade openness and GDP growth when TFP development level is taken as an intervening variable into account: trade may have a negative impact on GDP growth when countries have specialized in low-TFP development level; trade openness clearly boosts GDP growth once countries exhibit a minimum threshold of TFP development level. Therefore, there is some pattern of complementarity between trade openness and TFP development level so that the higher the TFP development level, the higher the impact of the trade openness on GDP growth.     

城市化进程中贸易开放的碳减排效应

文章基于2003-2012年中国省际面板数据,通过构建城市化水平测算指标体系、邻接矩阵、地理距离空间权重矩阵、经济距离空间权重矩阵,采用面板门限模型、空间杜宾模型,实证检验贸易开放、城市化对二氧化碳排放的影响效应。结果发现,贸易开放、城市化、二氧化碳排放均存在显著的空间集聚效应。贸易开放对二氧化碳排放的作用受人力资本存在的单一门限值影响,若地区人力资本越过门限值,贸易开放可以显著抑制二氧化碳排放;反之,贸易开放对二氧化碳排放则有促进作用。