资本项目开放对劳动议价能力与收入份额的影响 ——基于跨国制造业数据的分析

本文基于跨国制造业数据实证研究了资本项目开放对于劳动收入份额的影响效应。基于不同方法、指标和模型的分析结果显示：总体上看,资本项目开放未对制造业劳动收入份额产生显著影响;分样本结果表明,资本项目开放会对发展中而非发达经济体的劳动收入份额产生显著负面影响,而且外部融资依赖度越高的行业受到的负面影响程度越大。资本和劳动要素议价能力的相对变化是形成上述结果的关键。进一步的分析证实资本项目开放显著降低了发展中经济体的劳动议价能力,但对发达经济体劳动议价能力未形成明显影响,从而为前述结论提供了机制支撑。在决定资本项目是否开放以及开放时机的选择时,应对包括收入分配在内各种因素的可能复杂影响加以充分考虑     

Trade openness and financial development in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of institutional structures

This article examines the role of institutional structures in the relationship between trade openness and financial development in sub-Saharan economies. The study is based on empirical data from sampled sub-Saharan African countries for a period of 1996–2017. The system generalized method of moment was employed to estimate the models. The findings suggest that, even though trade openness has a positive significant influence on the level of financial development in sub-Saharan African economies, this relationship is enhanced through the presence of good institutions in these economies. Thus, for these economies to realize the full benefit of the effect of trade openness on financial development, they need to strengthen their institutions.     

Inflation and globalisation: The Tawney Lecture 2022

The paper examines the causal relationships and interdependence between inflation and globalisation over centuries: in the sixteenth century, in the age of Spanish silver; then in the first age of modern globalisation from in the middle of the nineteenth century; and finally in the new globalisation that took off in the 1970s. In the latter cases, inflation was a response to a negative supply shock, and eventually generated policy decisions on economic opening. Both recent globalisations may be explained as technologically driven, and some of the most important productivity gains involved the cost of transport, but the fundamental innovations substantially pre-dated the moment at which they were economically transformative. Scarcity dramatically changes relative prices, but not the overall price level. Initially inflation became a policy solution, an attractive way of meeting the challenges of scarcity, but then its increasing costs became apparent, and more, rather than less, global integration looked like a way of reducing costs and minimising social pressure. Policy choices were involved in generating the globalised world: not only the removal of impediments to commerce, but also a consensus around a stable and internationally applicable monetary framework, whether the gold standard in the late nineteenth century or a modern inflation targeting regime in the late twentieth century.     

The growth effect of trade openness on African countries: Evidence from using an instrumental variable panel smooth transition model

This paper assesses the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Africa by accounting for the heterogeneity of African countries. In addition, the paper contributes to the literature on trade openness and economic growth nexus by applying the instrumental variable panel smooth transition regression, a methodology that accounts for nonlinearity and endogeneity in the relationship between the two variables. The results of the empirical analysis reveal that the investment ratio is a channel through which trade openness affects economic growth in the African continent. In addition, the relationship between trade openness and economic growth varies according to the degree of a country's development in Africa. The study finds a negative relationship between openness and growth in low-income countries. Conversely, for upper-income countries, the coefficients of trade indicators are positive and statistically significant. The results indicate that African countries are not homogeneous, especially concerning trade openness and economic growth nexus.     

Trade openness,financial openness,and macroeconomic volatility

This paper develops a new model of an open economy for a study of macroeconomic dynamics under different degrees of trade and financial openness. The model is estimated using quarterly data on the Chinese economy over the period 2005Q3-2020Q4 and then applied to analyze how macroeconomic volatility varies with trade and financial openness in several representative settings. We find that the impacts on macroeconomic volatility of trade openness and financial openness depend on the nature of the underlying shocks and a moderate degree of trade openness, together with a high degree of financial openness, yield the optimal welfare results in most cases. These results highlight that the effects of trade and financial openness on macroeconomic volatility differ in various situations and that their interactions can lead to different welfare results.     

The effects of financial openness and financial efficiency on Chinese macroeconomic volatilities

This paper builds an open-economy DSGE model to study the effects of financial openness and financial efficiency on the macroeconomic volatilities and estimate the model with the Bayesian method and Chinese quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2017Q4. We further test the validity of model predictions with panel analyses of Chinese provincial data from 1987 to 2016 and various robustness tests. The results show that: first, further financial openness will lead to an increase in output volatility but U-shaped changes in consumption and investment volatilities. Second, financial efficiency improvement helps to reduce the macroeconomic volatilities but has a diminishing marginal benefit. Third, our estimates of China's degree of financial openness and financial efficiency are both at the medium level close to the thresholds. It implies that further financial openness will dramatically increase the macroeconomic volatilities but whether financial efficiency improvement can mitigate instability is uncertain.     

城市数字经济发展能够影响FDI区位选择吗？

本文在理论分析数字经济影响FDI区位选择的内在机理基础上，采用中国2011—2018年284个地级城市作为研究样本，构建数字经济指数，运用双向固定效应模型实证分析数字经济对FDI区位选择的影响，并进一步检验数字经济影响FDI的间接作用机制和系列异质性特征。结果显示，数字经济发展促进了城市FDI的流入，并以间接影响制造业发展加速FDI流入，经过各种稳健性检验后结论依然成立；异质性分析表明，在实施宽带中国的城市、东部地区和数字经济发展水平高的城市，数字经济对强化FDI区位选择的影响更加显著；机制分析表明，数字经济通过推动数字金融、刺激居民创业渠道影响FDI。这些发现为新时期中国夯实数字经济发展，扩大对外开放并稳定外资找到了新思路并提供了实证依据。     

Financial openness,financial sector development,and income inequality: With an extensive set of pull and push factors

This paper investigates the impact of financial openness on financial sector development and income inequality. We use the de jure and de facto measures of financial openness across 78 countries from 1980 to 2019. By employing a system generalized method of moments (GMM) with 5-year averaged data and a novel push and pull modeling framework, we obtain three key results. First, the de jure measure of financial openness exacerbates income inequality and is sensitive to banking crises and conflict intensity. Second, the de facto measure spurs stock value traded in emerging market economies (EMEs) and declines domestic credit in Africa. Third, the interaction between de facto measures with schooling and governance factors affects financial sector development and income inequality. We highlighted that the mere usage of the de jure measure and their interaction is incorrect. The key implication is that valuable information about the real impact of openness can be obtained from the de facto measures and their interaction with favorable macroeconomic fundamentals, governance factors, and adverse nonpolicy factors.