Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?

For over 40 years, the gravity equation has been a workhorse for cross-country empirical analyses of international trade flows and — in particular — the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. However, the gravity equation is subject to the same econometric critique as earlier cross-industry studies of U.S. tariff and nontariff barriers and U.S. multilateral imports: trade policy is not an exogenous variable. We address econometrically the endogeneity of FTAs. Although instrumental-variable and control-function approaches do not adjust for endogeneity well, a panel approach does. Accounting econometrically for the FTA variable's endogeneity yields striking empirical results: the effect of FTAs on trade flows is quintupled. We find that, on average, an FTA approximately doubles two members' bilateral trade after 10 years.     

改进的郭涛算法解一类有限元离散常微分方程

文章提出了改进的郭涛算法,并运用该算法解区域分裂、有限元离散之后的非线性常微分方程两点边值问题。数值结果表明该算法能很好地收敛到准确解,精度较高。     

关矛缩小城镇居民收入差距的思考——以重庆为例

要促进社会和谐，必须消除或削弱现存的不和谐因素。从构建和谐社会出发，在定量分析重庆城镇居民收入差距变化趋势的基础上，分析了收入差距拉大对构建和谐重庆的不利影响，并就如何缩小重庆城镇居民收入差距，促进重庆社会和谐进行了初步探讨，提出了大力提倡第三次分配等对策建议。     

多码元差分解调CPFSK算法的改进

连续相位频移键控（CPFSK）信号广泛应用于便携式移动通信系统。在CPFSK的各种解调技术中，多码元差分解调方案表现卓越。但是，该算法存在硬件开销大的缺点。为了解决这一问题，提出了一种更实用的多码元差分解调改进型算法。当采用完全响应4CPFSK信号，在AWGN信道下，BER性能达到10^-3时，提出的改进型算法比原始算法在Eb／N0方面多需要0．9dB，但它的系统复杂度只有原来的1／10。所以，改进型算法更适合于移动通信系统的应用。     

Balanced cycles in an OLG model with a continuum of finitely-lived individuals

This paper studies the intertemporal equilibrium of a barter economy populated with a continuum of finitely-lived overlapping generations. Assuming isoelastic preferences and zero endowments at the beginning and the end of the individuals’ life-span, it proves the existence of an Hopf bifurcation and provides sufficient conditions on parameters for its occurrenceThe authors would like to thank an anonymous referee, Alain Venditti and Francesco Ricci for helpful comments and suggestions     

初值为无界情形时解的支集的瞬间收缩性

研究了一类带有强吸收项的半线性热方程的初值问题,在初值数据为无界的情形下讨论了解的支集的瞬间收缩性质,给出了强吸收项的系数与初值数据之间的具体依赖关系.     

Stochastic Depreciation and Optimal Consumption-Investment Decisions

Capital accumulation is viewed as the net outcome of accumulation and wasting. Accumulation is modelled by a Gaussian process whilst wasting is generated by a continuous time and continuous state-space pseudo-Poisson process. These assumptions imply that an economic agent's preferences, consumption, capital accumulation and wastage are governed by a form of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation containing an infinite number of terms. We demonstrate the optimisation procedures applicable to consumption and the expected wastage of capital and in the process show that isoelastic preferences are consistent with the model.     

AFTA and the Asian Crisis: Help or Hindrance to ASEAN Intra‐Regional Trade?

Using a modified gravity equation, this paper examines ASEAN intra- and extra-regional bias in bilateral trade flows and how these relationships have altered over time. We pay particular attention to the periods before and after the signing of AFTA as well as the crucial years prior to and following the Asian crisis. Given the 'openness' of ASEAN countries we consider not only intra-ASEAN trade but also the effect of AFTA on non-members. We find that trade flows were not significantly affected in the years immediately following the signing of the AFTA agreement and also that the traditional stance of ASEAN countries to outward-oriented economic activity has not been significantly damaged but rather stimulated by the AFTA process and/or the Asian economic crisis. We do find, however, that that one effect of the Asian economic crisis was to generate a stronger desire to source imports from within the region.     

SOLUTION OF THE EXTENDED CIR TERM STRUCTURE AND BOND OPTION VALUATION

The extended Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (ECIR) models of interest rates allow for time-dependent parameters in the CIR square-root model. This article presents closed-form pathwise unique solutions of these unsolved stochastic differential equations (s.d.e.s) in terms of functionals of their driving Brownian motion and parameters. It is shown that quadratics in solution of linear s.d.e.s solve the ECIR model if and only if the dimension of the model is a positive integer and that this solution can be achieved by construction of a pathwise unique generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process from the ECIR Brownian motion. For real valued dimensions an extension of the time-change theorem of Dubins and Schwarz (1965) is presented and applied to show that a lognormal process solves the model through a stochastic time change. Pathwise equivalence to a rescaled time-changed Bessel square process is also established. These novel results are applied to characterize zero-hitting time and to produce transition density and zero-hitting conditions for the ECIR spot rate. the CIR term structure is then extended to ECIR under no arbitrage, and its solutions and the transition density are represented under a new ECIR martingale measure. the findings are employed to derive a closed-form ECIR bond option valuation formula which generalizes that obtained by CIR (1985).     

中小投资者与会计信息失真

中小投资者对会计信息失真的发生及其带来损失的增加负有一定责任 ,这一责任是由中小投资者自身的一些原因所造成的 ;但中小投资者可采取相应措施减少会计信息失真的发生机会 ,降低其带来损失的程度。