旅游流在区域内聚:从自组织到组织--区域旅游研究的一个理论框架

首次提出并研究"旅游流的区域内聚"现象.根据系统的自组织与组织原理,以江浙沪地区为例,研究在旅游流的区域自组织演化中所形成的旅游中心城市,并研究以这些旅游中心城市作为节点而形成的区域空间结构和基于这种区域形态的区域旅游空间组织.     

货币供给、通货膨胀和粮食价格波动互动关系研究

在VAR模型和方差分解基础上,利用1997年以来的月度数据,分析货币供应量、通货膨胀和粮食价格之间的关系。结果显示：通货膨胀对粮食价格有显著影响,存在货币供应量、通货膨胀到粮食价格变动这一传导途径,同时发现通货膨胀有较强的自身惯性,通过抑制粮食价格来控制通货膨胀是无效的。     

论全面质量管理与质量管理体系标准的关系

阐述了全面质量管理与ISO9000标准的异同,比较分析了两者的相同点与不同点,论述了全面质量管理与ISO9000标准的关系。指出,实施ISO9000系列标准为主的质量管理是“以标准为主的质量管理”;全面质量管理是站在产品的制造者的立场建立的一种人本管理思想,而ISO9000是站在用户立场建立的一种管理制度;推行ISO9000可以促进全面质量管理的发展并使之规范化,ISO9000也可从全面质量管理中吸取先进的管理思想和技术,不断完善。     

Investor sentiment and the risk–return relation: A two-in-one approach

Traditional finance theory posits a positive risk–return relation, but empirical evidence is inconclusive. Retail investor sentiment has long been viewed as a distorting factor, while more recently institutional investor sentiment is thought to play a role. We examine the separate and joint impacts of retail and institutional investor sentiments on the risk-return relation. We find, at both market and firm levels, the risk-return relation is more likely to be distorted by the two investor-type sentiments jointly, rather than separately. We further find a cross-sectional pattern, with the risk-return relation being more sensitive to investor sentiment for stocks with specific characteristics.     

Social Position and Behaviour: A Formalization

Modern society has witnessed anever-increasing development in the social sciences;partly due to changes in mentality, and partly due tothe growing requirements of the economic and political world – requirements which frequently takeon the guise of necessity, as for instance in thecases of market research and electoral opinion polls.Such development has produced an increasing paralleldemand for mathematical accuracy and exactitude inthese fields.The intention here is to rationalize the basic logicand methodology of the sociological procedure; anintention, it is hoped, which could be influential inimproving practical sociological work by rendering itmore comprehensible. This requires the employment offairly sophisticated mathematical and statisticalnotions.Section 1 outlines the definitions considered essential for the rationalization of the basiclogic framework previously described.Section 2 discusses the general concept of statisticalvariance. Section 3 introduces the notion of ``heterogeneity'and offers several propositions linked to this concept.Section 5 revolves around the notion of ``inaccuracy'.Section 6 presents a theorem relating to theimmersion of metric spaces in Banach spaces, andshows how the theorem can be used to constructtheoretically satisfactory immersion algorithms.Section 7 together with the material, which ispreviously introduced in Section 4, outlines thecluster analysis and the principal components methodologies.     

Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors

Multi-step-ahead forecasts of the forecast uncertainty of an individual forecaster are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of his recent squared forecast errors, where the number of past forecast errors available decreases one-to-one with the forecast horizon. In this paper, the efficiency gains from the joint estimation of forecast uncertainty for all horizons in such samples are investigated. If the forecast uncertainty is estimated by seemingly unrelated regressions, it turns out that the covariance matrix of the squared forecast errors does not have to be estimated, but simply needs to have a certain structure, which is a very useful property in small samples. Considering optimal and non-optimal forecasts, it is found that the efficiency gains can be substantial for longer horizons in small samples. The superior performance of the seemingly-unrelated-regressions approach is confirmed in several empirical applications.     

Safer Guildford

There has been an increasing trend in recent years for public agencies to work in partnership with each other and with commercial organizations, which has presented special managerial issues and problems. The Crime and Disorder Act 1998 gave the police and local authorities a statutory duty to work in partnership in order to promote and improve community safety. One such partnership is Safer Guildford, which was formed before the legislation came into force and which consequently already had a range of community safety initiatives in place. However, the partnership still had to comply with the new legislation and had to conduct an audit of crime and disorder in its area and publish a strategy for dealing with it. By examining the progress of Safer Guildford using a management perspective, a number of lessons can be drawn that will inform the future management of community safety partnerships.     

论以系统思考促进学习型组织建设

文章主要分析系统思考与学习型组织的相关要义及其相互关系,并阐述以系统思考促进学习型组织形成的过程。     

Blocked-Error-R 2: A Conceptually Improved Definition of the Proportion of Explained Variance in Models Containing Loops or Correlated Residuals

Bentler and Raykov (2000, Journal of Applied Psychology 85: 125–131), and Jöreskog (1999a, http://www.ssicentral.com/lisrel/column3.htm, 1999b http://www.ssicentral. com/lisrel/column5.htm) proposed procedures for calculating R ² for dependent variables involved in loops or possessing correlated errors. This article demonstrates that Bentler and Raykov’s procedure can not be routinely interpreted as a “proportion” of explained variance, while Jöreskog’s reduced-form calculation is unnecessarily restrictive. The new blocked-error-R ² (beR ²) uses a minimal hypothetical causal intervention to resolve the variance-partitioning ambiguities created by loops and correlated errors. Hayduk (1996) discussed how stabilising feedback models – models capable of counteracting external perturbations – can result in an acceptable error variance which exceeds the variance of the dependent variable to which that error is attached. For variables included within loops, whether stabilising or not, beR ² provides the same value as Hayduk’s (1996) loop-adjusted-R ². For variables not involved in loops and not displaying correlated residuals, beR ² reports the same value as the traditional regression R ². Thus, beR ² provides a conceptualisation of the proportion of explained variance that spans both recursive and nonrecursive structural equation models. A procedure for calculating beR ² in any SEM program is provided.     

谈高层建筑施工组织与管理

文章简要概述了高层建筑的发展、施工特点和施工前的一些准备工作,对施工组织设计的编制、施工阶段相关目标的控制及施工技术的管理进行了探讨。