旅华英国游客O→D旅游客流动力机制研究

文章在分析目前客源地→目的地旅游客流动力机制相关研究理论现状与不足的基础上,提出了＂推—拉—阻＂旅游动力机制。然后,在10个热点旅游城市采用100分制6点等距量表,以537份旅华英国游客有效问卷数据为依据,对旅华英国游客来我国城市旅游的旅游动力中的推力因子、拉力因子、阻力因子及其权重进行了研究。研究结果表明,旅华英国客流旅游动力中主要有8大推力因子、9大拉力因子和7大阻力因子,推力在促动力中占44%,拉力在促动力中占56%,阻力相当于促动力的39%。     

Attitudes,norms and difficulties underlying road sharing intentions as drivers and cyclists: Evidence from the Czech Republic

Cycling-inclusive urban planning is attracting attention worldwide because of the environmental, health, economic, and transport benefits inherent to cycling from the individual and the societal perspectives. The Czech Republic is one of the emerging cycling countries that are trying to promote and support cycling, but cycling mode shares are low because of the poor quality of the scarce infrastructure and the psychological barrier of the perceived lack of safety when cycling in mixed traffic. This study takes a multimodal approach based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and focuses on the factors underlying the willingness to share the road from the perspective of cyclists and drivers: positive attitudes toward cycling, positive attitudes toward cyclists’ behavior, social norms toward cycling and anxiety to share the road. A web-based questionnaire was tailor-designed and administered in the Czech Republic via social networks, web forums, and the Civinet network, and a hybrid bivariate-ordered model tested the behavioral framework. Results show that the willingness to share the road as a cyclist or as a driver relates positively to positive attitudes towards cycling and cyclists’ behavior, and negatively to the anxiety of sharing the road. Moreover, mediator effects are observed and a clear relation emerges between the experience on the road as both a cyclist and a driver on the willingness to share the road as a cyclist. Lastly, results show that the factors underlying road sharing intentions are related significantly to gender, travel habits, and perceived personal and infrastructure-related barriers to cycling.     

基于排队论的公交站点停车位优化及实证分析

优化设计公交站点停车位数是站点建设的一步重要工作,停车位数过多或过少都会影响公交系统的运营效率和服务质量。鉴于此,此文将探讨基于排队理论的公交站点停车位数优化方法,并以武汉市街道口站为例,运用该方法进行了实证分析,以期对武汉市的公共交通建设提供理论上的参考。     

城市交通与旅游协调发展定量评价——以大连市为例

城市交通和城市旅游之间互相拉动同时也互相限制,二者相互影响.实现二者高质量协调是实现城市旅游可持续发展的必由之路.因此,城市交通和旅游系统之间协调发展研究对二者共同发展具有一定的导向作用.文章以大连市为例,首次通过模糊数学建立评价体系,探究两系统间发展模式及其演变关系,为妥善处理交通和旅游的发展关系提供借鉴性参考.     

From passenger growth to aircraft movements

Airlines are able to deal with passenger growth by either increasing the frequency or the aircraft size, which may entail different numbers of aircraft movements. Forecasting the latter is necessary for evaluating technologies, approaching future emissions or anticipating capacity constraints. Purpose of this paper is to forecast a typical fleet mix and the growth of aircraft movements on flight segments worldwide based on an assumed passenger growth. The methodology is implemented in a model called Forecast of Aircraft Movements. Basic approach is the assignment of each flight segment worldwide to a distance, passenger number and aircraft category. For each combination of distance and passenger numbers a typical fleet mix is defined. The forecasted worldwide growth of passenger demand and the empirically determined fleet mix is applied to all segments in order to derive a future scenario. Assuming a certain seat load factor, the frequency growth can be deduced from the aircraft movements generated for all segments. The paper includes a forecast for aircraft movements in a future scenario based on real schedule and passenger data and gives a detailed overview of the methodology and results considering airlines' behaviour.     

Traffic evacuation time under nonhomogeneous conditions

During many manmade and natural crises such as terrorist threats, floods, hazardous chemical and gas leaks, emergency personnel need to estimate the time in which people can evacuate from the affected urban area. Knowing an estimated evacuation time for a given crisis, emergency personnel can plan and prepare accordingly with the understanding that the actual evacuation time will take longer. Given the urban area to be evacuated, street widths exiting the area's perimeter, the area's population density, average vehicle occupancy, transport mode share and crawl speed, an estimation of traffic evacuation time can be derived. Peak-hour traffic data collected at three, midblock, Mumbai sites of varying geometric features and traffic composition were used in calibrating a model that estimates peak-hour traffic flow rates. Model validation revealed a correlation coefficient of +0.98 between observed and predicted peak-hour flow rates. A methodology is developed that estimates traffic evacuation time using the model.     

探究车道被占用对城市道路通行能力的影响

从车道占用对城市道路通行能力的影响入手,运用对比分析法、推理演绎法以及排队论等方法,建立道路通行能力模型、道路价值度模型、相关性分析模型、排队长度模型。并运用Matlab软件,得出所占车道不同对该横断面实际通行能力影响不同,车道被占用影响的路段车辆排队长度与事故横断面实际通行能力、事故持续时间、路段上游车流量间的关系,以及排队长度等结果。     

组织管理对空中交通管制员工作能效的影响分析

综合借鉴SHELL模型和Reason模型的概念,参考国际民航组织《安全管理手册》,分析民航运行体系中组织管理对空中交通管制员工作能效的作用路径,提出组织管理对管制员工作能效产生积极影响的方法和建议.     

适应中国高速铁路客流特性的售票组织策略优化研究

售票组织是铁路客运日常管理工作的重要内容之一，其策略的制定必须与客流特性相适应。分析中国高速铁路客流与既有线及国外高铁客流的不同点，在此基础上，提出以席位销售优化控制为核心的售票组织策略。实践证明了所提出策略的有效性。     

交通高职院校报关师资培训的设计与实现

交通高职院校承担着为行业和地方服务的双重任务。随着经济结构调整、产业升级和经济发展方式的转变,交通高职院校要完成支撑产业、服务经济转型的使命,满足经济社会发展的需要,就要适时对专业布局进行优化和结构调整,配备合格的师资,这就需要对教师进行培训。文中围绕教师的培训内容,以报关为例提出了报关师资的培训设计和实现途径。