Riding the swaption curve

We conduct an empirical analysis of the term structure in the volatility risk premium in the fixed income market by constructing long-short combinations of two at-the-money straddles for the four major swaption markets (USD, JPY, EUR and GBP). Our findings are consistent with a concave, upward-sloping maturity structure for all markets, with the largest negative premium for the shortest term maturity. The fact that both delta–vega and delta–gamma neutral straddle combinations earn positive returns that seem uncorrelated suggests that the term structure is affected by both jump risk and volatility risk. The results seem robust for macroeconomic announcements and the specific model choice to estimate the risk exposures for hedging.     

Bayesian and Bühlmann credibility for phase-type distributions with a univariate risk parameter

Credibility theory is a statistical tool to calculate the premium for the next period based on past claims experience and the manual rate. Each contract is characterized by a risk parameter. A phase-type (or PH) random variable, which is defined as the time until absorption in a continuous-time Markov chain, is fully characterized by two sets of parameters from that Markov chain: the initial probability vector and transition intensity matrix. In this article, we identify an interpretable univariate risk parameter from amongst the many candidate parameters, by means of uniformization. The resulting density form is then expressed as an infinite mixture of Erlang distributions. These results are used to obtain a tractable likelihood function by a recursive formula. Then the best estimator for the next premium, i.e. the Bayesian premium, as well as its approximation by the Bühlmann credibility premium are calculated. Finally, actuarial calculations for the Bühlmann and Bayesian premiums are investigated in the context of a gamma prior, and illustrated by simulated data in a series of examples.     

税务征收体制下的社会保险费征管制度建设研究

我国社会保险费征管体制改革正在不断深入。当前,社会保险费征管仍存在制度设计有待完善、法律依据不够清晰的问题。本文基于税收征管视角,对社会保险费征管制度进行了重新审视,在全面梳理了制约社会保险费征管制度完善的限制性因素的基础上,从科学设置社会保险费征管前置程序、全面构建社会保险费征管的保障程序等多个方面,对将社会保险费征管融入税收征管流程的可行性进行了分析和探讨,以期为我国社会保险费征管制度的完善提供参考。     

对中国上市公司控制权溢价的实证分析

运用2001-2004年的样本数据。在对中国上市公司控制权的隐性利益水平所进行的分析显示,中国上市公司的转让溢价水平除了与转让比例呈正相关以外,转让溢价水平与净资产收益率、现金比率、流通股数和公司规模均呈负相关。同时,随着转让比例的上升,一开始溢价比例会增加,但当转让比例达到一定程度时,溢价比例又会下降,溢价比例与转让比例之问是一种倒U型的非线性关系。