Does the liquidity effect guarantee a positive term premium?

This paper examines the liquidity effect and the term structure in two versions of the limited participation model—an imperfect information model and an adjustment cost model. With a discrete-state solution approach, I find a striking contrast: while the imperfect information model successfully generates the liquidity effect and the positive term premium seen in the data; the adjustment cost model replicates only the liquidity effect. This is because the adjustment cost that drives the liquidity effect in the adjustment cost model also creates an adjustment cost effect, which leads to a negative term premium.     

The Valuation of Volatility Options

This paper examines the valuation of European- and American-style volatilityoptions based on a general equilibrium stochastic volatility framework.Properties of the optimal exercise region and of the option price areprovided when volatility follows a general diffusion process. Explicitvaluation formulas are derived in four particular cases. Emphasis is placedon the MRLP (mean-reverting in the log) volatility model which has receivedconsiderable empirical support. In this context we examine the propertiesand hedging behavior of volatility options. Unlike American options,European call options on volatility are found to display concavity at highlevels of volatility.     

Non-cooperative Tacit Collusion,Complementary Bidding and Incumbency Premium

This article focuses on testing the intuitive idea of Folk Theorem in a repeated game, and the existence of complementary bidding and incumbency premium. Through careful analysis of bidding behaviors in the Dallas-Ft. Worth (DFW) school-milk industry, I find that cooperation based on rationality and repetition satisfies the conditions for a kind of Folk Theorem. The data also strongly suggest that all major milk processors are engaged in complementary bidding to allocate consumers geographically and command statistically significant incumbency premia in their incumbent districts. Even if the equilibrium outcomes are largely non-cooperative, some pieces of circumstantial evidence uncovered in this school-milk market study may be sufficiently convincing to enable dispensing with evidence of actual communication.     

Are auction revenues affected by rising art buyers’ premia? The case of early American art

The steady rise in the premiums charged to art buyers at auction (above hammer price) has been underway since 1992. This article, using a stable and bounded sample of repeat purchase of American works created before 1950, reveals that this tact has reduced hammer prices for that art. However, renewed and hyper-competitive efforts to bring more and higher quality art to market by the two main houses, Sotheby’s and Christie’s, have resulted in general profitability. Nevertheless, we calculate that a rise in buyers’ premia at Sotheby’s, a publically traded company, has reduced revenues and profits below their potential in the absence of such increases.     

The impact of liquidity on inflation-linked bonds: A hypothetical indexed bonds approach

Sovereigns mainly issue inflation-linked bonds (ILB) in order to save money. More than 15 years’ experience with this financial instrument in the United States has led to the conclusion that these bonds are characterized by low liquidity issues. Recently, various papers have started to analyze the impact of liquidity on ILB yields. This paper develops a new strategy for estimating the liquidity premium based on Campbell and Shiller's (1996) hypothetical ILB yields. We find significant effects of ILB-specific liquidity measures for the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada. Based on these findings, we derive the liquidity premium in ILB yields, liquidity-adjusted estimates for the break-even inflation rate and the inflation risk premium. In the United States, for instance, the average of the liquidity premium is 0.56%-points, and the average liquidity-adjusted break-even inflation rate and inflation risk premium amount to 2.67%-points and 0.22%-points, respectively.     

Pricing fx forwards in OTC markets – new evidence for the pricing mechanism when faced with counterparty risk

By using daily foreign exchange (fx) market data for five major currency pairs, this article shows that, especially since the beginning of the financial crisis, pricing of fx forwards has not matched the pricing formula derived from the covered interest rate parity (CIP). This corresponds to previous empirical results. Therefore, the CIP leads to systematic over- or underpricing. Overall, four statistically significant explanatory factors for this systematic over- or underpricing have been identified – the volatility in the difference between the interest rate levels, the spot price, the fx forward spread and the counterparty risk. In particular, the high significance of the counterparty risk demonstrates that pricing models for fx forwards should be reviewed.     

基于中部六省名牌比较的山西省名牌问题思考

本文认为,名牌产品是质量和效益的集中体现,代表着一个国家和地区的经济竞争能力和科技发展水平。山西省经济整体发展水平与名牌现状基本上一致,不论在中部还是全国都排名靠后。山西“十一五”规划第一次提出名牌战略问题,将为山西名牌建设和经济发展提供一个良好的政策平台;强调要着力抓好转变经济增长方式和加快推进产业结构调整两项战略任务,将为名牌建设搭建一个经济平台。山西省的经济命脉和最大的支柱产业煤炭,到目前为止只有一枚中国驰名商标。因此,山西省今后要努力在煤的品种和衍生产品上打出名牌,同时要推进产学研一体化,着力提高企业持续的技术创新能力,为名牌建设提供一个科技平台。     

基于CAPM的黄金风险溢价研究

运用CAPM理论中的边际风险价格的概念,通过分析一个包含了黄金市场和股票市场在内的市场资产组合,定量给出了黄金的风险溢价。同时检验了黄金收益是否在CAPM框架内有效。在与我国股市进行比较之后,得出投资者可将黄金包括到投资组合中去,以取得更好的风险收益比。     

Financial Stability in European Banking: The Role of Common Factors

In this paper, I investigate the development and determinants of CDS spreads for 18 major European banks between December 2001 and January 2004 applying factor analysis to daily data. Two clear-cut conclusions can be drawn. First, the dominating first common factor that explains 88 percent of all variation in the system, impacts on all banks in a similar direction. This suggests a strong market integration. However the size of the response of each bank’s CDS spread to the first common factor differs substantially, probably reflecting differences in individual bank’s exposure and riskiness. Second, the first common factor appears significantly related to the European P/E ratio and the European-wide 2-year nominal interest rate. This finding suggests that the common factor may be interpreted as a general indicator of market conditions. JEL Classification Numbers: G12, G15, G21, C30     

The term structures of equity and interest rates

This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model capable of jointly explaining the term structure of interest rates, returns on the aggregate market, and the risk and return characteristics of value and growth stocks. Both the term structure of interest rates and returns on value and growth stocks convey information about how the representative investor values cash flows of different maturities. We model how the representative investor perceives risks of these cash flows by specifying a parsimonious stochastic discount factor for the economy. Shocks to dividend growth, the real interest rate, and expected inflation are priced, but shocks to the price of risk are not. Given reasonable assumptions for dividends and inflation, we show that the model can simultaneously account for the behavior of aggregate stock returns, an upward-sloping yield curve, the failure of the expectations hypothesis, and the poor performance of the capital asset pricing model.