Financial System and Housing Price

The 2007/2008 US financial crisis is related to the securitization of mortgage loans and the housing-price boom and bust. In this article, we test the hypothesis that housing-price change is related to the development of the financial system. Using panel data for 23 countries from 1988 to 2012, we have found that the housing-price growth rate increases as the financial system moves a bank orientation to a market orientation. The policy implication is that the government should beware sudden increases in the capital market relative to the banking sector. Especially, more sophisticated financial supervision with respect to housing-price movement is required when a bank-based financial system progresses quickly to a market-oriented financial system.     

A Multiple and Partial Wavelet Analysis of the Oil Price,Inflation, Exchange Rate,and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia

This article provides a fresh insight into the dynamic nexus between oil prices, the Saudi/US dollar exchange rate, inflation, and output growth rate in Saudi Arabia’ economy, using novel Morlet’ wavelet methods. Specifically, it implements various tools of methodology: the continuous wavelet power spectrum, the cross-wavelet power spectrum, the wavelet coherency, the multiple and the partial wavelet coherence to the annual sample period 1969–2014. Our results unveil that the relationships among the variables evolve through time and frequency. From the time-domain view, we show strong but non-homogenous linkages between the four variables. From the frequency-domain view, we uncover significant wavelet coherences and strong lead-lag relationships. From an economic view, the wavelet analysis shows that Saudi economy is still exposed to several global risk factors, which are mainly related to the oil market volatility, and the pegging of the local currency to the US dollar. Such risk factors strongly and negatively affect the real economic growth, exert more pressure on inflation, and substantially limit the freedom to pursue an independent monetary policy.     

On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks

Daily and weekly seasonalities are always taken into account in day-ahead electricity price forecasting, but the long-term seasonal component has long been believed to add unnecessary complexity, and hence, most studies have ignored it. The recent introduction of the Seasonal Component AutoRegressive (SCAR) modeling framework has changed this viewpoint. However, this framework is based on linear models estimated using ordinary least squares. This paper shows that considering non-linear autoregressive (NARX) neural network-type models with the same inputs as the corresponding SCAR-type models can lead to yet better performances. While individual Seasonal Component Artificial Neural Network (SCANN) models are generally worse than the corresponding SCAR-type structures, we provide empirical evidence that committee machines of SCANN networks can outperform the latter significantly.     

开征物业税对房地产市场影响的实证分析——以成都市为例

开征物业税已成为我国税制改革的必然税制政策方向,它将对房地产市场产生重要的影响。基于成都现状,从实证角度分析了开征物业税所引起的税费变化因素与房价之间的相关关系,以及物业税与房地产市场内在的相关性等问题,论证了开征物业税将对成都房地产市场产生重要的影响。     

国际转让价格

国际转让价格的制定历来是跨国公司经营战略的一大难题。影响国际转让价格制定的因素有所得税差别、关税壁垒、竞争、通货膨胀、外汇管制、政治风险等。制定国际转让价格的方法分为以成本和以市价为基础两种,两种方法各有优劣。在实务中,跨国公司应联系自身的经营目标、组织结构、生产规模、定价策略以及各国经济、文化背景等因素加以选择。     

人民币汇率走势分析

不同的劳动生产率和不同的现代通货膨胀和紧缩,在不同的国家体现了不同的商品标准定位价格。国际汇率是依据各国当时的单位法定纸币可以交换的商品价值量确定的,应当是各种法定纸币的各国商品标准定位价格的比例。根据这样的现代通货理论,可以分析人民币和美元、欧元、日元汇率的基本走势。     

水价探析

从分析早期水价的形式出发,论述“三元”水价、水资源资产价格、水资源价格等有关概念,理清价值与价格的辩证关系,从价值的角度对水价进行理性探析。同时比较分析涉及水价方面的有关概念,使对与水价有关的几个易混淆的概念有较清晰明确的认识。     

三亚“价格调控”假日旅游供需矛盾的利弊及对策

三亚今年运用“价格杠杆”调控假日旅游市场供需矛盾,尝试经营假日旅游市场,但它是从局部利益出发的,对海南整体假日旅游经济有不良影响。鉴于三亚旅游对海南整体旅游业发展的重要性,应当处理好局部利益与整体利益的关系,本文立足于海南全省旅游经济发展,分析这一措施的利弊,并提出一些可供选择的方案。     

系数修正法在标定地价评估中的应用

本文从务实的角度出发, 系统阐述了系数修正法在标定地价评估中的应用。文中首先论述了系数修正法的基本原理,然后详细分析了影响地价的各种因素并给出了利用系数修正法评估地价的具体步骤, 最后通过评估实例进行了说明     

本币升值对股市的影响——基于日本的经验研究

作为一国经济晴雨表的股票市场,不可避免地受到汇率变动的影响。文章以日本为例,分析本币升值对股市的影响。分析表明,本币升值在短期内推动本国股市繁荣,往往伴生股市泡沫,但继续升值预期一旦消失,股市往往出现大幅度下跌。因此,在人民币持续升值的背景下,必须根据我国的实际情况慎重考虑其对股市的影响。