Risk Aversion,Uncertain Information,and Market Efficiency

Abstract. We reexamine and extend tests of the uncertain information hypothesis (UIH) proposed by Brown, Harlow, and Tinic (1988, 1993). We find that their empirical results are sensitive to the sampling procedure employed and that their particular methodology does not sufficiently distinguish between event and nonevent periods. When the sampling procedure is modified to identify only relatively large, isolated events, the test results generally do not support the UIH. Instead, significant price shocks are consistently followed by short-lived price reversals. We observe this behavior following positive and negative events regardless of whether the event is classified as risk increasing or risk decreasing.     

Three New Real Estate Price Indices for Geneva,Switzerland

This paper develops constant-quality price indices for three categories of real estate-apartment buildings, vacant land, and condominiums—for the city of Geneva, Switzerland. We use both the hedonic and repeat sales models to estimate the price level and, in turn, the rate of price change. The general pattern of each series suggests that real estate prices in Geneva were fairly stable throughout the 1970s, increased sharply during the 1980s, but gave back some of these gains in the early 1990s. Interestingly, the sharp rise in prices in the second half of the 1980s is very similar to that found in some regions of the United States. We also consider the problem, implicit in the repeat sales method, of revisions in previously estimated price indices as additional data become available in later years.     

Subordinated Market Index Models: A Comparison

The paper compares various processes subordinated to the Wiener process tomodel the leptokurtic characteristics of index returns. Empirical analysisis performed on the Dow Jones and Nikkei 225 indexes. A good model to capturethe typical tail behaviour of these indexes turns out to be a long Studentt distributed one.     

Money and exchange rates in the Grossman-Weiss-Rotemberg model

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on inflation, interest rates and exchange rates in a model with segmented asset markets developed by Grossman and Weiss (1983) and Rotemberg (1984, 1985). We find parameters for which real and nominal exchange rates in this model are (1) much more volatile than interest rates, inflation rates, and money growth rates, (2) highly correlated with each other, and (3) highly persistent. While this model fails to match the data in other important respects, it illustrates a potentially useful approach to modelling exchange rate behavior.     

Complementarity, coordination and compatibility: The role of fixed costs in the economics of systems

We analyze industry equilibrium and incentive to compatibility when goods produced by different producers generate utility only when consumed as component parts of a system. We assume the presence of two systems, each composed of some basic component and a set of differentiated complementary products. The combination of complementarity between the two components of the system and of fixed costs in the production of the complementary product results in a form of network effect. We focus on the role played by the size of the fixed costs in the production of the complementary products in determining the size of this system effect and, by this means, the structure and types of equilibria that may be observed: monopolistic or duopolistic, symmetric or asymmetric. We also highlight the consequence of the same fixed costs for the private and social incentives to render the systems compatible.     

Market based price support program: an alternative approach to large scale food procurement and distribution system

In most developing countries of the world, large scale public food procurement and distribution systems (PFDS) have become too expensive for the country governments to support from their own resources. Despite high financial and administrative costs of the programs, the degree of seasonal price stabilization and price support achieved through the activities remain quite low. Using the Bangladesh PFDS as a case study, this research indicates that considerable improvements in price support can be achieved by providing credit to the farmers immediately after the harvest. If the government procurement is reduced by 50 per cent in Bangladesh, and providing 150 per cent of the cost of running PFDS as credit, Bangladesh can improve the farmers' income and achieve better stability of cereal prices at a cost less than one-third of the current costs of the PFDS.     

股票价格均值回归理论研究综述

随机漫步理论认为股票的价格是不能预测的,许多实证检验的结果也支持了这一结论。但是,近年来均值回归理论对随机漫步理论提出了挑战。从长期来看,股票价格呈均值回归是必然的;均值回归具有不对称性;政府行为对股票的均值回归具有一定的影响。     

税收价格论对强化税收征管的现实意义

税收价格论认为税收是纳税人为消费公共品而向政府支付的“价格”,税收征纳双方在本质上是平等的交换关系。借鉴税收价格论,应当以个人为基点,从利益交换关系的角度,赋予纳税人作为交换一方应有的权利。应在整个公共部门经济的全过程中体现税收本质上的平等交换关系,并以法律的形式予以确定和保护。引进税收价格论,对提供新的税收征管思路,强化税收征管工作,具有重要的现实意义。     

税收优惠对外商投资影响的研究综述

税收优惠是各国政府用来吸引外商投资的常用手段。但是,税收优惠如何影响外商投资历来就是一个充满争议的话题。早期国际上关于税收优惠对外商投资影响的经典理论主要有庇古的福利经济学理论、“双缺口”模型和邓肯的国际折衷理论,而近来也有不少国内外学者分别从区位选择、融资来源、投资类型和投资形式等角度论证了税收优惠的作用。     

金融期货价格波动限制机制探讨

金融期货价格稳定机制延缓了价格发现过程，并造成了流动性干扰，但从降低期货、现货交易总成本来讲，它还是利大于弊，因此设置价格波动限制是一种可行的政策，而且在期货、现货市场同时设定的效果最好。此外，从不同价格波动限制方式的影响来看，选择弹性涨跌幅限制可较好地发挥价格限制的好处，减小价格限制的不利影响。