Leverage vs. feedback: Which Effect drives the oil market?

This article brings new insights on the role played by (implied) volatility on the WTI crude oil price. An increase in the volatility subsequent to an increase in the oil price (i.e. inverse leverage effect) remains the dominant effect as it might reflect the fear of oil consumers to face rising oil prices. However, this effect is amplified by an increase in the oil price subsequent to an increase in the volatility (i.e. inverse feedback effect) with a two-day delayed effect. This lead-lag relation between the oil price and its volatility is central to any type of trading strategy based on futures and options on the OVX implied volatility index. It is of interest to traders, risk- and fund-managers.     

中国公司债券交易量与价格波动的关系

使用中国沪深证券交易所的公司债数据,检验了债券交易量与价格波动的线性关系和非线性尾部相关性,分析了债券流动性水平对量价关系的影响,研究了债券量价关系的时变特征。结果表明:中国公司债市场中债券交易量与价格波动之间存在显著的线性关系;债券流动性水平对量价关系有显著影响,债券流动性水平越高(低),则量价关系越弱(强);债券交易量与价格波动存在非对称的下尾相关性;债券量价关系具有时变性,市场低风险时期量价关系较弱,市场高风险时期量价关系较强。     

Irving Fisher's debt deflation analysis: From the Purchasing Power of Money (1911) to the Debt-deflation Theory of the Great Depression (1933)

Abstract

In 1933, Irving Fisher proposed an explanation for the Great Depression based on the distinction between the price level and price change effect of deflation in a context of over-indebtedness. This paper compares the debt-deflation theory of Fisher (1933 Fisher, I., 1933. The debt-deflation theory of great depressions, Econometrica 1 (1933), pp. 337–57. DOI: 10.2307/1907327[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) with the dynamic depression process he had expounded almost 20 years earlier in the Purchasing Power of Money (1911). The role played by both price level and price change effects in the analyses of Fisher (1933, 1911) are clarified in the context of the disequilibrium model of Tobin (1975 Tobin, J., 1975. Keynesian models of recession and depression, American Economic Review 65 (1975), pp. 195–202.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). More precisely, we show that the stationary equilibrium is assumed to be locally unstable according to Fisher's 1911 insights and globally unstable according to his 1933 analysis.     

中国数字经济的投入产出与产业关联分析

在新一轮科技革命的推动下,数字经济蓬勃发展,对经济社会影响重大。分析数字经济产业的投入产出结构及其产业关联特征,对于发挥数字经济的带动和支撑能力、推动中国经济增长及产业结构转型升级具有重要意义。本文使用2017年、2018年、2020年中国竞争型投入产出表对数字经济的投入产出结构和产业关联进行刻画,结果表明：第一,数字产业是传统制造业和服务业的重要中间投入和上游需求部门;第二,在产业静态关联方面,传统产业与数字产业的产业融合程度仍然较低,而数字产业对传统制造业和传统服务业的生产过程中均具有重要影响;第三,在产业动态联系上,数字制造业对国民经济各产业具有极强的需求拉动作用,但其他行业对数字产业的整体拉动作用较小。基于这些结论,本文为推动数字经济的发展提出了一些建议。     

新疆玛纳斯河灌区农业水价承受力调查

简介玛纳斯灌区水量分配与逐级水价现状及被调查对象基本情况，用玛纳斯河灌区农业水价承受力调查获得的数据对农业用水户水价承受力进行分析。分析结果表明：灌区末级水价承受能力的上、下限区间为0．14～0．165元／m^3。此时，水费占净收益的比重为18．05％～21．27％，占总成本的比重为7．83％～9．23％，占总产值的比重为5．46％～6．44％。提出提高农户水价承受能力的对策：农业用水户对水价的承受能力是很低的，虽现行水价水平仍可以承受，但提价空间已不大。因此，在推广节水措施的同时，深化水利管理体制和经营机制改革，加快水价进入成本的速度，利用价格这一经济杠杆的调节作用，促使农民进一步惜水、节水，逐步实现水资源的优化配置，使水利管理单位尽快走上良性循环、健康发展的道路。     

On the Welfare Gains of Price Dispersion

Can price dispersion be associated with higher levels of welfare? To answer we compare two economies that differ only in the way prices are formed. In the first, sellers post a unique price–quantity pair, with no price dispersion. In the second, sellers post a quantity only and let prices be determined ex post by realized demand, resulting in price dispersion. We show that while agents trade lower quantities when prices are dispersed (an intensive margin effect), they also trade more often (an extensive margin effect). At low inflation, the extensive margin dominates making agents better off with price dispersion.     

对企业技术创新自我实现的经济学分析

本文从经济学的理论角度分析了企业技术创新自我实现的可能性。分析发现：产品被成熟生产后的产量与资本报酬和资本边际生产率的大小有直接关系。因此，企业发展内部本身就可以通过市场供需调节来实现创新的循环和延续。从这一点上说，国家对于企业技术创新的鼓励政策应该更加依靠市场机制的作用。     

The Cross-industry Spillover of Technological Capability: Korea’s DRAM and TFT–LCD Industries

Studies of Korea’s Thin Film Transistor–Liquid Crystal Display (TFT–LCD) industry have emphasized the government policy, industrial organization, and the firm’s strategy as key success factors. However, the fact that knowledge spillover, which tends to occur between highly technologically related industries, can lead to a reduction in innovation effort has been overlooked. We examined the technological relationships between Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) and TFT–LCD industries and investigated their spillover into the areas of technology, human resources and organization, and network. The results show spillover in capital control, technology, production and quality management, organizational systems, and key personnel. This implies that spillover effect in high technology firms may diversify their products due to existing technological capabilities.     

公用事业的多产品定价与政府规制:由上海观察

上海电力公司热电联供的热力价格调整案例表明,完全分配成本法可能会导致共同成本在热力与电力产品问的不合理分摊。而激励问题的存在将加剧共同成本的不合理分摊状况,最终结果是用户的福利受到损失。同时。政府的规制行为受到特定利益集团间的竞争驱动,并且规制者自身有着特定的利益目标,最终规制政策的出台实质上是利益集团间的博弈均衡。为此,寻求更为合理的多产品价格规制方法,以及如何保证利益集团博弈中的规制均衡成为一种社会合意的结果,成为多产品公用事业政府规制改革中的重要问题。     

从房价上涨看中央政府与地方政府的博弈

近年来我国房价持续上涨,国家颁布一系列相关措施,但调控效果却并不显著。原因在于,分税制下中央政府与地方政府之间存在利益的冲突。地方政府关注的是房地产发展对地方经济效益的贡献,而非国民经济的均衡发展。地方政府的消极支持,使得房价有增无减。