对内部控制的重新认识

内部控制理论从其产生发展到现在经历了漫长的过程，人们对它的认识也在发生不断的变化。内部控制理论的发展可以分为形成阶段、发展和完善阶段。在内容上，由最初的“二分法”发展到“三要素”、“五要素”，尤以美国COSO报告的内容为代表。现阶段的内部控制能否发挥作用，控制环境及人的因素是非常重要的。此外，还应该加强对内部控制过程的监督。     

Estimating unknown join points: Determination of the yen-dollar exchange rate

We propose a Bayesian procedure to estimate a switching regression in which the number of switching points (i.e. join points) is not known. We apply the Bayesian procedure to a regression model for the yen-dollar exchange rate using monthly data from January 1973 to June 1992. We identify three join points in January 1978, September 1988, and March 1990. We compare the post-sample forecast performances of our switching regression model to those of other regression models. The post-sample forecasts show that the Bayesian switching model performs better than the other models.     

A unified approach to validating univariate and multivariate conditional distribution models in time series

Modeling conditional distributions in time series has attracted increasing attention in economics and finance. We develop a new class of generalized Cramer–von Mises (GCM) specification tests for time series conditional distribution models using a novel approach, which embeds the empirical distribution function in a spectral framework. Our tests check a large number of lags and are therefore expected to be powerful against neglected dynamics at higher order lags, which is particularly useful for non-Markovian processes. Despite using a large number of lags, our tests do not suffer much from loss of a large number of degrees of freedom, because our approach naturally downweights higher order lags, which is consistent with the stylized fact that economic or financial markets are more affected by recent past events than by remote past events. Unlike the existing methods in the literature, the proposed GCM tests cover both univariate and multivariate conditional distribution models in a unified framework. They exploit the information in the joint conditional distribution of underlying economic processes. Moreover, a class of easy-to-interpret diagnostic procedures are supplemented to gauge possible sources of model misspecifications. Distinct from conventional CM and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) tests, which are also based on the empirical distribution function, our GCM test statistics follow a convenient asymptotic $N(0,1)$ distribution and enjoy the appealing “nuisance parameter free” property that parameter estimation uncertainty has no impact on the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics. Simulation studies show that the tests provide reliable inference for sample sizes often encountered in economics and finance.     

A probabilistic analysis of the trading the line strategy

We provide analytic models for which the appropriate statistics of the trading the line strategy, N _h , can be derived in closed form. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions concerning the average duration of the open position, E(N _h ), the variance of the open duration, Var(N _h ), the average of the stopped log price, E(S _{N h} ), the variance of the stopped log price, Var(S _{N h} ), the correlation, Corr(N _h , S _{N h} ), and the Laplace transform, E(e^{?s N _h} ). These results are obtained, in discrete time settings, for binomial and other price scenarios. Furthermore, when analytic results are not possible, such as the case of a normal distribution for log returns, we show by simulation that our general conclusions still hold. Using these statistics we point out some of the subtle features of the trailing stops strategy.     

论我国非讼程序的立法完善

非讼程序,是公力救济在民事非争议案件领域的特殊表现形式。在和谐社会语境下,非讼程序的内外双重价值凸显,既可以高效快速地完成对非争议案件的审理,又可以及时有效的达到对民事纠纷的事先预防。于立法和实践两个层面分析我国非讼程序的现状和缺陷,从宏观和微观的双重维度提出切实的完善路径,将有效助力于中国特色社会主义法律体系从＂已然形成＂迈向＂全面完善＂。     

内部性解决机制的比较分析

交易成本或不完全信息是内部性产生的主要原因,由于交易成本和不完全信息是普遍存在的,所以内部性也是普遍存在的.市场机制、法律程序、社会性管制都在一定范围、一定程度上对解决内部性问题发挥作用.只有当因交易成本过高使市场解决内部性无效时,社会性管制才作为一种替代性的机制发挥作用.     

解决农地征收中法律纠纷的程序性对策研究——以天津滨海新区为例

规范征地的关键是程序性的制约,征地程序不是可有可无的点缀。我国现行征地程序不规范、不合理,侵害了被征地农民的知情权、参与权和申诉权。国外在现代化进程中,建立了比较完善的土地征收程序,对我国征地程序的完善具有较强的启示作用和借鉴意义。     

论我国的股东派生诉讼制度——兼评我国2005年修订的《公司法》第一百五十二条

我国2005年修订的《公司法》新增了股东派生诉讼制度,成为我国公司法律修改史上的一大突破。该制度具体体现在新《公司法》第一百五十二条,主要包括其主体资格及前置程序这两个部分。不同国家或地区对股东派生诉讼制度有不同的规定,学者们对该制度也有不同的立法建议。对股东派生诉讼制度进行研究有利于更好地保护股东（特别是中小股东）的利益,优化我国的公司制度,促进社会主义市场经济的发展。     

数字化核电厂紧急事件的人因可靠性分析

本文以核电厂为背景,针对紧急事件将认知模型分为五个阶段:监视与激发、信息收集、任务定义及状态分析、决策与任务执行,并对每一认知阶段详细分析了失误因素,失误原因及绩效形成因子。其次,对核电厂紧急事件提出了定量化分析步骤和方法。最后,本文以核电厂给水失水紧急情况人因事件为例进行详细操作规程分析,并对该事件的每一失误阶段进行定量化计算。     

APP基于流程的精益生产研究与应用

针对APP在批次管理条件下,因产品品种烦多,生产批量少所造成的设备利用率不高、公司准时交货率较低、员工加班时数多等问题,提出基于流程的精益生产思想,在优化和规范企业生产流程的基础上,建立科学合理的组织结构及职能职责,同时建立细胞化生产系统,实施结果表明,该管理模式有效提高生产效率,降低产品生产周期。