基于BP神经网络的征地区片综合地价评估

文章提出了征地区片综合地价的BP神经网络系统的基本构造,并在充分考虑城市规划和生活水平对征地区片土地价格影响的基础上,对神经网络的评估系统进行了设计.给出了征地区片综合地价评估的指标体系及特征指标的量化计算公式.以雅安市雨城区最新的征地区片综合地价为基础,利用改进的BP神经网络模型对它们进行了训练和模拟,取得了良好的模拟结果,证明了ANN法用来测算征地区片综合地价的可行性和先进性.     

生产性服务业对制造业集聚、竞争力提升的影响及两产业耦合关联的实证研究

运用DEA模型、显示性比较优势指数和协整耦合关联度,对我国长三角区域和珠三角区域的生产性服务业与制造业集聚和竞争力提升的关联以及两类产业的耦合关联进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:长三角区域的金融保险业和房地产业以及珠三角区域的交通运输物流仓储及邮电通讯业和金融保险业分别与本区域的制造业集聚显著正相关;长三角区域和珠三角区域的生产性服务业各细分行业对本区域制造业竞争力的提升有促进作用,但其增值贡献较小;生产性服务业与制造业之间存在耦合关联,但存在生产性服务业推动制造业耦合结果显著性的非对称差异,且长三角区域的该方面差异表现略大。     

跨国公司生产性服务业FDI地理集聚因素研究——基于中国1997—2009年的数据分析

信息壁垒的存在及高质量服务购买时的经验性特征,使跨国公司生产性服务业FDI在最初进入时往往会追随制造业。实证研究表明:除了制造业FDI,生产性服务业FDI往往和东道国制造业表现出很大的关联度;一国受教育程度、开放度等都是影响因素之一;东道国生产性服务业种类的上升会降低东道国制造业的生产成本。     

A network experiment in continuous time: The influence of link costs

In recent work on non-cooperative network formation star-shaped networks play an important role. In a particular theoretical model of Bala and Goyal (2000) center-sponsored stars are the only strict Nash networks. In testing this theoretical model, Falk and Kosfeld (2003) do not find experimental evidence that players select the center-sponsored star. Based on a slight modification of Bala and Goyal’s model, we design a network formation experiment in which, depending on link costs, periphery-sponsored stars and the empty network are the only strict Nash networks. We observe that almost all groups not only reach a strict Nash network once but also switch the center player in periphery-sponsored stars several times. The main innovation in our experiment is to use a continuous time framework which we believe to be a more realistic setting to study behavior in network formation situations and which makes coordination on stars much easier than simultaneous strategy adaptation in discrete time. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10683-006-9125-1. JEL Classification C72 · C92 · D81     

复杂网络视角下突发性公共卫生危机管理

本文从复杂网络的视角重新审视了突发性公共卫生事件的危机管理。研究结果表明,复杂网络的小世界特性和无标度特性为突发性公共卫生危机的传播带来了新的挑战,在突发性公共卫生危机的传播过程中,采用切断超级传播者、隔离、免疫、信息公开与反馈等措施可以收到不同程度的危机预防和控制效果。本文结合传统的预防-处理-善后三阶段危机管理体系,提出了复杂网络视角下的突发性公共卫生危机管理政策建议。     

European systemic credit risk transmission using Bayesian networks

The analysis of systemic credit risk is one of the most important concerns within the financial system. Its complexity lies in adequately measuring how the transmission of systemic default spreads through assets or financial markets. The transmission structure of systemic credit risk across several European sectoral CDS is studied by dynamic Bayesian networks. The new approach allows for a more advanced analysis of systemic risk transmission, including long-term and more complex relationships. The modelling reveals as relevant only relationships between the original series and one- and two-lagged series. Network structure learning displays a robust and stationary underlying risk transmission structure, pointing to a consolidated transmission mechanism of systemic credit risk between CDSs. Between 5 % and 40 % of sectoral CDS series variances are explained by the network relationships. The modelling allows us to ascertain which relationships between the CDS series show positive (amplifier) and negative (reducer) effects of systemic risk transmission.     

世界工厂的定位能促进中国生产性服务业发展吗

中国生产性服务发展受制于需求因素。本文研究表明,世界工厂的定位使中国生产性服务缺乏有效市场需求的支撑而发展滞后。当前政府鼓励生产性服务发展的政策应该以需求为导向,立足于巩固和加强生产性服务与制造业的产业关联,进而扩大对生产性服务的中间需求。     

Forecasting and Arbitrage of the Nikkei Stock Index Futures: An Application of Backpropagation Networks

A neural network model was used in forecasting the basis in SIMEX Nikkei Stock Index futures. Results for out of sample show that the neural network forecast performance was better than that of the ARIMA model. Also, a two-way ANOVA confirms that the employed neural network was able to provide the trader with more arbitrage profits than the traditional cost-of-carry model even though it observed relative less profitable arbitrage timing. The results can be attributed to the network';s higher ability to capture nonlinear market patterns.     

Delphi: A brief look backward and forward

In response to a request by the guest editors, we have set down our thoughts regarding the evolution of Delphi, beginning with our immersion in the subject in the late 1960s and concluding with some rumination about its future. Our focus is on the changing roles of Delphi. Most importantly, with the profound impact of the internet on organizational and community planning systems, it will foster a new age of participation through communication, coordination, and collaboration.     

Institutionalism and Econometrics: Toward a Meaningful Synthesis

For the last twenty years, the world economy has evolved at a great speed. Every good, capital asset, and knowledge is mobile and induces more competition. Innovation in commodities is a complex process that requires more cooperation. To innovate in the knowledge economy, firms nowadays must establish “win-win situations” for individuals in creating networks. These networks are useful for firms in order to come up with innovative strategies. The building of networks enables the interactions between agents, the environment, and institutions. The interdependence of agents and institutions is not new to evolutionary theory (Commons 1931 Commons, John R. “Institutional Economics.” American Economic Review 21, 4 (1931): 648–657. [Google Scholar]; Veblen 1898 Veblen, Thorstein. “Why Is Economics Not an Evolutionary Sciences?” Quarterly Journal of Economics 12, 2 (1898): 373–397.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). However, I argue that institutions must be more flexible than ever before in order to help agents adapt to the modern knowledge economy. On the basis of the role of meso-networks, I propose new long-run specialization and short-run competitiveness that will promote greater efficiency and equality around the world in relation to firms and countries exporting industrial goods into world markets. Within the innovative networks, I analyze the role of two different actors: (i) the “economic leader” who has a long-run strategy and (ii) the “go-between leader” who knows how to diffuse “useful information” to actors to help them innovate in new products, services, or processes.