Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles

We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage-Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun’s law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called ‘distributive curve’ of the economy. Exploiting the observed non-linearity in extending an otherwise standard demand-distribution model (Taylor 2004 Taylor, Lance. 2004. Reconstructing macroeconomics. structuralist proposals and critique of the mainstream, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), we provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit-led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are two stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967 Goodwin, R.M. 1967. “A growth cycle”. In Socialism, capitalism and economic growth, Edited by: Feinstein, C.H. Cambridge, , UK: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counterclockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008 Kauermann, G., Teuber, T. and Flaschel, P. 2008. “Estimating loops and cycles using penalized splines”. Bielefeld: CEM working paper.  [Google Scholar]).     

Potential ecological and economic impacts of sea lice from farmed salmon on wild salmon fisheries

This paper examines the possible ecological and economic effects of sea lice from salmon farms on wild salmon populations and fisheries. A bioeconomic model is developed incorporating an age-structured population dynamics model of wild pink and chum salmon with mortality caused by farm-derived sea lice. Our model incorporates capture fisheries under two management policy scenarios. Results suggest that the ecological and economic effects are minor when the sea lice induced mortality rate is below 20%, while they can be severe if the mortality is greater than 30%. Sea lice have greater ecological and economic impacts on pink salmon than on chum salmon. The impact of farm lice epizootics on wild salmon is greater under a fixed exploitation rate than under a target escapement policy. As a result, a precautionary principle should be adopted, and appropriate management schemes and policy strategies should be developed to minimize these effects.     

期货市场价格操纵行为与监管——基于演化博弈理论

从演化博弈理论的视角,基于微分方程的稳定性理论,通过分析中间参数的变化对博弈系统的最终演化均衡的影响,论证了期货市场联合操纵行为演化的方向和路径,并结合"有限理性"个体的假设进行模拟。最后,对期货市场价格操纵行为的监管提出了相关建议。     

基于业态变异视角的我国百货业盈利模式思考

近年来,我国百货业经营模式从传统的自营模式逐渐转为联营模式,百货店对商品的进、销、存管理功能弱化,百货业的盈利模式随之也发生根本性的变化,出现靠收取专柜佣金或租金盈利的"通道费盈利模式"。这种盈利模式使我国百货业发展出现诸多弊端,并造成我国百货业态属性的变异,不利于我国百货业的持续发展。文章主要运用百货业上市公司数据,分析联营模式下我国百货业业务结构、利润来源、盈利能力和盈利潜力的变化,探讨了这种盈利模式对百货业核心技术、服务特征、盈利空间和风险形态的影响,并指出我国百货业盈利模式向"价值链盈利模式"转变所需要的条件和路径,据此提出相应转变的对策思路。     

美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率的灰色关联度分析

运用灰色关联度分析方法研究美中经常性贸易逆差与人民币汇率以及美国对华限制出口的相关关系,研究表明:人民币汇率与美中贸易逆差灰色关联度较小,显著小于与美国对华高科技出口限制因素的关联性.因此,不存在我国操纵汇率补贴出口企业保持对美国的贸易高顺差,美中贸易逆差主要是结构性逆差以及美国对华限制性出口政策的结果,人民币升值无益于美中贸易逆差的缩小.     

水利水电工程投标报价的策略和技巧探讨

本文以某估价M=1200万元的工程投标为实例,计算并分析出四个不同报价的得标概率,从而算出预期利润、三个对手的投标取胜的概率以及不同概率后的预期利润,进行合理的报价投标,通过对实际情况的结合,研究并探讨具体投标的技巧.     

从财务报告看企业的盈利能力

盈利能力是指企业获取利润的能力,而利润的构成和质量又是企业价值最直接的体现,因此,分析企业的盈利能力,探析利润的构成和质量,对于企业的投资者、债权人和其他各类会计信息使用者来说,都具有十分重要的意义。     

城乡统筹条件下农村集体建设用地使用权制度模式的实证分析——以城乡建设用地增减挂钩为视角

城乡统筹条件下,农村土地问题是一个不可回避而又相当关键的问题。在城乡建设用地挂钩试点中,不要固定某一模式,避短而取其长,可能是较优方案。严格限制政府公权力,使地方政府从"土地财政"中解放出来,使其失去利益的冲动回归理性。尊重农民的知情权和决定权,防止农民"被上楼"。引入"地票"交易模式,使农村建设用地使用权"同权同利"。     

浅析湖北省内城商行的问题和对策

城市商业银行作为我国金融体系的重要组成部分,在支持地方经济发展中发挥了重要的作用。本文重点通过分析了湖北省内各主要城商行发展的现状和不足,针对这些不足和问题,提出一些建设性的对策。     

上市公司经营性现金流操纵实证研究

本文在已有研究思路的基础上,改进了实证方法,考察了1999-2004年再融资的554家A股公司的经营性现金流操纵行为.1998、2001年虽然有现金流量表的规范文件出台,但经营性现金流操纵仍是我国A股上市公司的普遍行为.文章在跨期5年的实证考察中也印证了公司再融资时确实通过获得一次性的税费返还、收回被股东单位占用的资金、拖延支付货款以及其他与经营活动有关的支出等手段操纵上市公司的现金流.