保险公司偿付能力恶化预测研究

文章在分析公司财务预测研究方法应用前提的基础上,运用MDA模型和Logistic线性回归模型预测方法对我国保险公司偿付能力恶化进行预测研究。结果表明两个主流模型均能在保险公司偿付能力恶化前1~2年较好地进行预测,但是由于两类错估率的不同,MDA模型要优于Logistic模型。     

构造与市场经济相适应的现代公有制形式

公有制的改革与发展问题是建设有中国特色社会主义经济的核心问题。要完善社会主义初级阶段基本经济制度，实现公有制与市场经济的结合，只在公有制的实现形式上做文章是不够的，还必须高度重视和认其解决公有制本身的存在形式即公有制形式问题。     

Herd Behaviour in Adoption of Network Technologies

In technology adoption, herd behaviour can lead to a suboptimal outcome as shown, among others, by Choi (1997). However, empirics find little support for the idea that a less efficient technology can conquer the market and lock out a more efficient one. Accordingly, we improve and generalize Choi's results, by introducing an additional source of uncertainty: the economic environment. We investigate how the economic environment can affect herding and consequently the efficiency of the technology choice. The result is a smaller adoption bias. In the limit, firms may optimally experiment with the new technology that turns out to be social welfare improving.     

巨灾风险证券化及在中国保险市场的应用

在分析了巨灾风险的损失频率与损失幅度的特点、传统保险与再保险对抗巨灾风险的局限性等方面的基础上，重点介绍了巨灾风险证券的几种产品类型，分析了各种风险转移方式的优缺点。最后，根据中国保险市场的特点，从应用环境和应用条件两个方面提出了开展巨灾风险证券化应用的若干设想。     

我国农村环境问题的经济分析及解决途径

本文分析了我国农村存在的环境问题,从经济学角度分析了农村环境问题产生的原因,并提出了农村环境问题的治理措施与途径:消除其公共物品性和外部性。     

Medical insurance with rank-dependent utility

Summary. A well-known result in the medical insurance literature is that zero co-insurance is never second-best for insurance contracts subject to moral hazard. We replace the usual expected utility assumption with a version of the rank-dependent utility (RDU) model that has greater experimental support. When consumers exhibit such preferences, we show that zero co-insurance may in fact be optimal, especially for low-risk consumers. Indeed, it is even possible that the first-best and second-best contracts are identical. In this case, there is no “market failure”, despite the informational asymmetry. We argue that these RDU results are in better accord with the empirical evidence from US health insurance markets. Received: February 26, 2001; revised version: October 4, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"The authors would particularly like to thank Simon Grant, John Quiggin, Peter Wakker and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions on earlier drafts. The paper has also benefitted from the input of seminar audiences at The Australian National University, University of Auckland, University of Melbourne and University of Sydney. Ryan also gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the ARC, through Grant number A000000055. Correspondence to:R. Vaithianathan     

财政透明化背景下的政府治理变革

财政透明度是民主社会中更为广泛的公众知情权和政府信息披露制度的重要组成部分。中国财政透明度同发达国家相比存在很大的差距，甚至落后于许多发展中国家。本文通过对财政透明度的基础理论分析，认为财政透明化作为政府治理变革的核心，对于政府治理效率的提高有积极性影响。为了适应经济全球化发展趋势，在更多领域内参与国际竞争与合作，就必须规范政府行为，实现政府治理再造，     

公共品供给中的政府责任

在公共品供给中,政府责任是提供它需要并且能够提供的公共品。需要提供的公共品是指在现有的资源技术条件下,达到社会效用最大化所需提供的公共品。能够提供的公共品是指征到拉弗曲线隐含的最大税收量所能提供的公共品。需要并且能够提供的公共品是指需要提供的公共品与能够提供的公共品中量较小的一方。通过比较政府实际提供的公共品与需要并且能够提供的公共品,可以评价政府在这一领域称职与否。     

The Prosecution of Public Figures and the Separation of Powers. Confusion within the Executive Branch – A Conceptual Framework

Criminal investigation and prosecution of politicians, top civil servants and other public figures are topics frequently discussed in the media. The nature of the investigating or prosecuting authority varies between countries – from the general public prosecutor, through magistrates to independent counsels or parliamentary investigation commissions. This paper analyzes the role and status of public prosecutors within the separation of powers-concept. Prosecutors are usually part of the executive and not the judicial branch, which implies that they do not enjoy the same degree of independence as judges, and are ultimately subordinated to the directives of the minister of justice or the government. Conflicts of interest may hence arise if members of government can use the criminal process for their own or partisan interests. The incentives of public prosecutors in different jurisdictions are compared.     

Unemployment insurance: The role of electoral systems and regional labour markets

Levels of insurance against unemployment vary considerably across countries. Replacement rates, the ratio relating income from unemployment to what people earned when they were employed, are higher in countries with proportional electoral systems than in countries with majoritarian systems. Also, replacement rates are positively correlated with per capita income and negatively correlated with the countries' unemployment rates. I develop an electoral competition model that replicates these stylized facts.