Aggregate Dividend Behavior and Permanent Earnings Hypothesis

The study examines the aggregate dividend behavior of U.S. corporations based on the permanent earnings hypothesis. Using annual data of aggregate earnings and dividends from 1871–1993, I find that although managers change dividends proportional to permanent earnings changes, they make revisions with a larger percentage change in dividends than in permanent earnings. The results from the post‐war data show that firms follow a partial adjustment policy with a long‐term dividend payout target in mind and make revisions with a delay. The quarterly data analysis yields results similar to those of the post‐war annual data.     

Burn or bury? A social cost comparison of final waste disposal methods

This paper evaluates the two well-known final waste disposal methods, incineration and landfilling. In particular we compare the social cost of two best-available technologies using a point estimate based on private and environmental cost data for the Netherlands. Not only does our comparison allow for Waste-to-Energy incineration plants but for landfills as well. The data provide support for the widespread policy preference for incineration over landfilling only if the analysis is restricted to environmental costs alone and includes savings of both energy and material recovery. Gross private costs, however, are so much higher for incineration, that landfilling is the social cost minimizing option at the margin even in a densely populated country such as the Netherlands. Furthermore, we show that our result generalizes to other European countries and probably to the USA. Implications for waste policy are discussed as well. Proper treatment of and energy recovery from landfills seem to be the most important targets for waste policy. Finally, WTE plants are a very expensive way to save on climate change emissions.     

农村剩余劳动力的就业问题

在我国,农村大量剩余劳动力的存在是一个不容忽视的事实,本文对影响农村剩余劳动力就业因素进行了分析,认为解决问题的关键不仅在于农业和农村本身,还在于积极推进城市化,引导劳动力合理流动,发展劳动密集型的产业和中小企业。     

西方现代股利政策理论及实证研究回顾

本文对西方现代公司股利政策方面的理论和实证研究进行了一个综合性的回顾和分析。其中包括主流的股利行为模型、股利的信息内涵、代理成本、追随者效应,也包括国内研究中较少涉及的债务约束、声誉学说、成长机会和交易成本问题,以期对国内相对落后的股利政策研究和随意性较强的股利政策制定带来一定的借鉴意义。     

National Income Accounting and Public Policy

Modern national income accounting was designed in the early 20th century for the purpose of providing improved indicators about the performance of the economy so that government policy makers could better control the economy. The way that performance is measured affects the types of policies used to try to accomplish policy goals. Two attributes of national income accounting are analyzed for their effects on economic policy. First, government production is included in the national income accounts at cost, rather than at market value as private sector output is measured. This biases policy toward a larger public sector. Second, output is measured as a homogeneous dollar amount. This biases policy toward focusing on increasing quantities of inputs and outputs in the production process, rather than on innovation and entrepreneurship, which are the true engines of economic progress. Economic policy could be improved by focusing less on national income as an indicator of policy, and more on the underlying processes that foster economic progress.     

弱化我国货币政策传导机制因素探讨

当前我国货币政策传导机制不顺畅，其主要原因是：需求不足制约了中央银行货币供给，经济实体经济结构与金融经济结构的不对称阻碍了货币政策传导的信贷渠道，传导机制的机构活力不足，金融市场发育不成熟使货币政策实施的有效空间减少，等等。因此，必须认真研究提高货币政策传导效率的途径，使中央银行货币政策意图顺利实现。     

建立铁路公益性运输补偿机制的探讨

铁路公益性运输超越了企业的职能范围,企业应当得到国家补偿。为此,建议按照依法、据实补偿原则,以税收抵扣方式进行补偿,以利于铁路运输企业的积累和发展。     

基于人工神经网络的地铁施工招标综合评估模型

广州地铁工程是国内数个重要的大型城市基础建设项目之一。目前对于这种复杂的大型工程项目,迫切需要一个成熟可靠的公开招标评估系统。根据广州地铁工程的实际招标评标数据,提出应用人工神经网络(ANN)建立地铁施工招标综合评估模型。BP神经网络具有很强的自学习和自适应能力,可以精确地迫近复杂的非线性动态函数。经过训练网络,基于BP网络的模型成功量化了主观和定性的技术评估指数,得出较满意的评估结果。该模型可以通过增加样本提高精度,从而应用在地铁和其他类似建设项目招标中。     

国际投资税收政策对跨国企业集团投资战略的影响

由于各国经济发展水平、经济资源优势和经济国际化程度不同,各国都制定符合各自经济政策目标的国际投资税收政策,采取的税收优惠政策的侧重点也各不相同。跨国企业集团在制定投资战略时应注重分析各国引导投资的侧重点并充分加以利用,在投资战略选择中,必须慎重确定投资所在国的重点优惠项目或重点优惠地区,全面考虑投资国和投资所在国之间的国际税收协调性,正确认识资本投入量同税收负担与其他投资环境要素之间的关系。应以全球的观点进行国际化投资战略规划,以谋求集团整体税收负担的最小化和整体投资收益的最大化