Volatility Relationship between Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

This paper utilizes calculated historical volatility and GARCH models to compare the historical price volatility behavior of crude oil, motor gasoline and heating oil in U.S. markets since 1990. We incorporate a shift variable in the GARCH/TARCH models to capture the response of price volatility to a change in OPEC’s pricing behavior. This study has three major conclusions. First, there was an increase in volatility as a result of a structural shift to higher crude oil prices after April 1999. Second, volatility shocks from current news are not important since GARCH effects dominate ARCH effects in the variance equation. Third, persistence of volatility in all commodity markets is quite transitory, with half-lives normally being a few weeks.

优化外商直接投资结构的研究——基于行业FDI数据的VAR模型

根据1990—2010年全国国内生产总值（GDP）、FDI在制造业的投资额（FM）、FDI在服务业的投资额（FS）、FDI在房地产业的投资额（FRE）及在教育领域的投资额（FE）的统计数据进行基于VAR模型的实证分析,认为长期看,外商在制造业的投资额（FM）和在服务业的投资额（FS）的增加导致全国GDP的增加,外商在房地产业的投资额（FRE）以及在教育领域的投资额（FE）与GDP反向变动;短期看,对全国经济发展的短期影响程度由高到低,依次是FDI在服务业的投资额（FS）、在制造业的投资额（FM）和在教育领域的投资额（FE）以及在房地产业的投资额（FRE）。建议以国务院颁布的《外商投资产业指导目录》为导向,积极利用外资及优化外商投资结构,在发挥外资对我国经济的积极推动作用的同时尽量减少外资的负面影响。     

Remittances as a social status signaling device

Like all human beings, migrants may have a concern about their prestige or social status in the eyes of left-home family and friends. They can remit money in order to signal their economic success and increase their status. We show that if migrants’ income is private information, unsuccessful migrants might accept a worsening of their living conditions and send back home large amounts of remittances only in order to make residents believe that they are successful. In some cases, successful migrants can signal their true favorable economic situation by remitting an even larger amount. The game presents various equilibria that differ with respect to the proportion and nature of the migrants who sacrifice consumption opportunities to status revealing actions.     

基于VAR模型的江苏省投资、消费与经济增长实证分析

本文利用江苏省1980年到2007年经济数据,在VAR模型的基础上,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解的方法对江苏省的投资、消费与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。结果发现,投资、消费和经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系,江苏省地区生产总值的增长与投资和消费都具有双向因果关系,消费对经济增长的贡献度比投资更大。因此,通过提高居民收入水平,才能刺激消费,促进江苏经济健康发展。     

大学校园商业活动的利弊分析与管理应对

随着近年来全国各大学的扩招与大学城的扩建,大学校园商业活动的发展势头逐渐呈上升趋势。大学校园商业活动对于大学的发展以及大学师生的学习生活具有非常积极的意义,但同时也存在一些消极隐患。针对这些隐患,只有采取相关有效的应对策略,才能真正实现大学校园商业活动的良性发展进而营造学校、师生与商家的共赢局面。     

基于复杂多响应相关性的稳健性优化设计

本文对目前复杂多响应问题中,响应间相关性复杂问题的稳健性优化设计方法进行了分析和总结,考察了2种复杂多响应的稳健优化技术,比较了各种方法的特点同时又考虑了稳健性满意度函数法,并对其进行了优化。研究结果表明,最优化稳健性满意度函数法能够很好的平衡复杂多响应中的优化与稳健性的问题,可以很好的解决现代工业产品中只考虑最优化忽略稳定性而导致"召回门"不断的问题。     

大型物流仓储类建筑防火安全设计方法探析

随着中国物流产业的蓬勃发展,越来越多大型物流仓储中心出现,但是随之而来的一些消防问题也摆在眼前,如防火分区面积过大、疏散问题、消防设施布置等。运用了性能化防火设计评估的方法对类似建筑进行分析模拟,并提出相关优化方案是一个比较可行的解决办法,通过该方法能够提高建筑安全性,增加设施的可靠性。     

基于满应变准则的大规模桁架结构的最小柔度设计

针对大规模桁架结构,推导出一种结构优化设计方法。其设计目标为整个结构的柔度最小,也即刚度最大;采用的力学准则为满应变设计准则;在整个桁架结构重量满足一定约束的前提下,通过优化各杆件截面积,达到整体柔度最小。仿真结果表明,该方法可以在有限迭代步数下实现桁架结构总体柔度最小。将两次迭代所有杆截面积之差总和作为停机准则,随着停机准则的减小,整个计算所用迭代次数逐渐增大,所需计算时间也逐渐增长。在实际应用中,应根据实际需求和成本限制综合确定停机准则。     

Distance measures between free trade and autarky for the world economy

We develop a methodology to determine numerically how globalized the world economy is. We present a global general equilibrium model capturing major OECD economies and a residual rest of world for which alternative metrics of distance between observed, free trade and autarky equilibria can be developed. We use data for 2000 and report a number of distance measures between the 2000 observed trade restricted equilibrium and both free trade and autarky equilibria noting the absence of prior literature on metrics of distance between equilibria. The measures are used to determine the degree to which the world economy is globalized.