Extensive-form games and strategic complementarities

I prove the subgame-perfect equivalent of the basic result for Nash equilibria in normal-form games of strategic complements: the set of subgame-perfect equilibria is a nonempty, complete lattice—in particular, subgame-perfect Nash equilibria exist. For this purpose I introduce a device that allows the study of the set of subgame-perfect equilibria as the set of fixed points of a correspondence. My results are limited because extensive-form games of strategic complementarities turn out—surprisingly—to be a very restrictive class of games.     

基于非均衡发展理论的区域协调内涵诠释

区域协调发展具有非常强的非均衡依赖性,或者说区域发展的非均衡性是一种客观存在.区域协调的本质是在产业关联紧密的基础上,通过区域经济要素的自由流动,促进区域经济有序发展,达到市场机会公平的过程.非均衡发展一般受经济发展的内在规律、市场作用和政府干预三种力量的影响.无论非均衡发展效应的好坏是三者综合作用的结果还是哪一方面的作用,任何忽视区域协调内涵问题,而直接实施非均衡发展战略的措施,最终可能导致更坏的结果出现.     

不同货币政策工具的实施效果实证分析——基于中国数据的VAR检验

由于我国特殊的国情,国有及国有控股企业占主导地位;同时随着经济开放程度的加深,私营企业、外资企业和其他非国有集体企业对经济增长贡献率不断提升.这两方面的原因加大了我国货币政策工具有效调控宏观经济的难度.然而,通过建立VAR模型对各种货币政策工具进行脉冲响应分析后认为,要提高我国货币政策工具的实际效果,必经途径是推动利率市场化和进一步深化国有及国有控股企业市场化.     

N‐FIRM OLIGOPOLY WITH GENERAL ISO‐ELASTIC DEMAND

In this note oligopoly with iso‐elastic demand is analysed. Unlike previous studies we consider general iso‐elastic demand rather than the case of unit elasticity. An n‐firm Nash‐Cournot equilibrium for the case of heterogeneous constant marginal costs is derived. The main result is a closed‐form solution that shows the dependency of the equilibrium on the elasticity of demand and the share of industry costs. The result has applications to a wide range of areas in oligopoly theory by allowing comparisons across markets with different elasticities of demand.     

The informational relevance of corporate social responsibility: evidence from DS400 index reconstitutions

This study examines the relationship between corporate social responsibility and financial performance by analyzing the intra‐industry wealth impact of additions and deletions to the Domini Social 400 index. Results from the event study analysis indicate that additions to the index generate a positive share price response for the announcement firm and a negative response by rival firms. The opposite reaction is observed for index deletions. Additionally, the share price response is more pronounced for informationally opaque industries. Our study highlights the importance of external monitoring agencies in providing meaningful information that helps resolve investor uncertainty regarding the quality of a firm's relationships with its primary stakeholders. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prudent expectations equilibrium in economies with uncertain delivery

In an economy with private information, we introduce the notion of objects of choice as lists of bundles out of which the market selects one for delivery. This leads to an extension of the model of Arrow–Debreu that is used to study trade ex ante with private state verification. Under the assumption that agents are prudent, equilibrium is characterized by the fact that agents consume bundles with the same utility in states that they do not distinguish. This is a weaker condition than the restriction of equal consumption imposed by Radner (Econometrica 36(1), 31–58, 1968), therefore, some no trade situations are avoided and the efficiency of trade increases.     

金融稳定分析的宏观模型综述及展望

金融系统的稳定性水平是金融功能是否有效发挥的反映,加入WTO后中国政府对经济系统进行了诸多方面的改革,金融系统的稳定性得到明显提升,但也存有压力与风险。金融稳定分析的宏观模型包括扩展的宏观经济模型、动态随机一般均衡模型和网络模型。其中,动态随机一般均衡模型具有较好的现实拟合度,应用性较强。应根据中国的社会背景和特殊的金融制度,构建中国特色的动态随机一般均衡模型。     

综合考虑多因素的项目风险应对策略选择方法

描述了项目风险管理中的项目风险应对策略选择问题。综合考虑项目工期、项目完工质量和项目风险应对成本等多个因素,以项目风险应对总收益最大为目标,构建了项目风险应对策略选择优化模型,通过求解优化模型来确定适合的风险应对策略。实例分析结果表明,所给出的项目风险应对策略选择方法具有可行性和实用性。     

投资决策中个人理性与集体理性博弈分析及对策研究

针对近期多起曝光的企业对外投资、担保大案,本文应用博弈论分析方法,在强调个人理性与集体理性矛盾的基础上研究投资决策中两者的完全信息博弈及无限阶段重复博弈,并建立相应的定量分析模型,通过分析博弈参与人均衡行为,指出投资决策中寻租的存在的必然性及巨大危害,并针对性的提出了适合实际操作的对策建议.     

基于产出冲击的国际储备需求的跨期均衡分析——真实经济的视角

与现有研究相比,文章从真实经济的角度构造了一个简单的基于代表行为人的跨期均衡模型,探讨基于产出冲击和消费平滑的主动性储备需求的决定。研究表明:主动性储备需求与产出冲击发生的概率、产出冲击大小、代表行为人的相对风险厌恶系数以及代表行为人的主观贴现率呈正向关系,与经济增长速度呈反向关系,而与储备资产的相对价格呈现出非线性的关系。通过数值模拟发现,我国主动性储备约占2007年GDP的6%(相当于我国2007年底国际储备的12%),说明我国近年来增加的国际储备存在较大的被动持有部分,目前的国际储备持有额已经从一定程度上脱离了实体经济的基本需求。因此,除紧缩的货币政策外,我国政府还需要进一步运用汇率政策、贸易政策以及其他干预政策直接降低被动国际储备额。