Hedging effectiveness of the Athens stock index futures contracts

This paper examines the hedging effectiveness of the FTSE/ATHEX-20 and FTSE/ATHEX Mid-40 stock index futures contracts in the relatively new and fairly unresearched futures market of Greece. Both in-sample and out-of-sample hedging performances using weekly and daily data are examined, considering both constant and time-varying hedge ratios. Results indicate that time-varying hedging strategies provide incremental risk-reduction benefits in-sample, but under-perform simple constant hedging strategies out-of-sample. Moreover, futures contracts serve effectively their risk management role and compare favourably with results in other international stock index futures markets. Estimation of investor utility functions and corresponding optimal utility maximising hedge ratios yields similar results, in terms of model selection. For the FTSE/ATHEX Mid-40 contracts we identify the existence of speculative components, which lead to utility-maximising hedge ratios, that are different to the minimum variance hedge ratio solutions.     

Determining overall risk

The risk journal literature lacks a clear and simple account of the conceptual issues involved in determining the overall risk of an action, and in explaining how risk is additive. This article attempts to bring a measure of clarity to these issues in as basic and non‐technical a way as possible. First of all, the view that risk is ‘expected harm’ is explained. The view that risk is a quantitative concept is then defended. The distinction between the risk run by doing action A in respect of possible outcome x, and the overall risk run by doing action A in general is explained, as is the position that the overall risk of A is determined by summing the risks of each possible harm that A could give rise to. The article then explains how risks can be summed over time, as long as the probabilities involved are determined according to probability theory. Finally, the article explains that in a doing a risk‐benefit analysis of A, positive aspects of a possible outcome x, where x is harmful on balance, must be incorporated into x's level of harm rather than incorporated into the benefit side of the risk‐benefit analysis of A.     

A stochastic differential game for optimal investment of an insurer with regime switching

We introduce a model to discuss an optimal investment problem of an insurance company using a game theoretic approach. The model is general enough to include economic risk, financial risk, insurance risk, and model risk. The insurance company invests its surplus in a bond and a stock index. The interest rate of the bond is stochastic and depends on the state of an economy described by a continuous-time, finite-state, Markov chain. The stock index dynamics are governed by a Markov, regime-switching, geometric Brownian motion modulated by the chain. The company receives premiums and pays aggregate claims. Here the aggregate insurance claims process is modeled by either a Markov, regime-switching, random measure or a Markov, regime-switching, diffusion process modulated by the chain. We adopt a robust approach to model risk, or uncertainty, and generate a family of probability measures using a general approach for a measure change to incorporate model risk. In particular, we adopt a Girsanov transform for the regime-switching Markov chain to incorporate model risk in modeling economic risk by the Markov chain. The goal of the insurance company is to select an optimal investment strategy so as to maximize either the expected exponential utility of terminal wealth or the survival probability of the company in the ‘worst-case’ scenario. We formulate the optimal investment problems as two-player, zero-sum, stochastic differential games between the insurance company and the market. Verification theorems for the HJB solutions to the optimal investment problems are provided and explicit solutions for optimal strategies are obtained in some particular cases.     

The politics of utility reform: a case study of the Ugandan water sector

The global pursuit of neoliberalist reforms has been a markedly political process resulting in a variety of outcomes. Using the case of the Ugandan water sector, the authors demonstrate that this political process is most pronounced when reforms lead to organizational changes and is less evident when private institutions are introduced.     

Long‐Run Consumption Risk and Asset Allocation under Recursive Utility and Rational Inattention

We study the portfolio decision of a household with limited information‐processing capacity (rational inattention [RI]) in a setting with recursive utility. We find that RI combined with a preference for early resolution of uncertainty could lead to a significant drop in the share of portfolios held in risky assets, even when the departure from the standard expected utility setting with full‐information rational expectations is small. In addition, we show that the equilibrium equity premium increases with the degree of inattention because inattentive investors with recursive utility face greater long‐run risk and thus require higher compensation in equilibrium.     

Dynamic preferences for popular investment strategies in pension funds

In this paper, we characterize dynamic investment strategies that are consistent with the expected utility setting and more generally with the forward utility setting. Two popular dynamic strategies in the pension funds industry are used to illustrate our results: a constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) strategy and a life-cycle strategy. For the CPPI strategy, we are able to infer preferences of the pension fund’s manager from her investment strategy, and to exhibit the specific expected utility maximization that makes this strategy optimal at any given time horizon. In the Black–Scholes market with deterministic parameters, we are able to show that traditional life-cycle funds are not optimal to any expected utility maximizers. We also prove that a CPPI strategy is optimal for a fund manager with HARA utility function, while an investor with a SAHARA utility function will choose a time-decreasing allocation to risky assets in the same spirit as the life-cycle funds strategy. Finally, we suggest how to modify these strategies if the financial market follows a more general diffusion process than in the Black–Scholes market.     

企业资源使用能力与IPO绩效的关系——基于所有权结构的调节作用

利用2009—2015年中国创业板上市企业的相关数据,采用OLS法,对企业资源利用能力与IPO绩效的关系以及所有权结构对上述关系的调节作用进行了回归分析。结果显示:企业的外部资源探索能力与IPO绩效部分正相关,内部资源利用能力与IPO绩效正相关;所有权结构负向调节内部资源利用能力与IPO绩效的正相关关系。     

Household Use of Agricultural Chemicals for Soil-Pest Management and Own Labor for Yard Work

In spite of its potential health and environmental risks and contribution to agribusiness, the use of agricultural chemicals for yard care has not been well studied. In our discrete-continuous choice model, estimated with data from a national survey, a household chooses how much money, if any, to initially spend on types of agricultural chemicals and applicators and how much time to subsequently spend on other yard work. Households in big cities or with large gardens are more likely to use organic chemicals. The probability that a household chooses a mix of do-it-yourself and hired applications of synthetic chemicals increases with income, age, and the presence of preschoolers. Among households that apply only synthetic chemicals without hired help, those with young children, with higher incomes, in big cities, and with male heads spend more on the chemicals. The time that such households spend on other yard work increases with expenditures on the chemicals. Cancellation of a pesticide registration might create an extra private cost for households with young children even though the ban might reduce external costs.     

价值捕获与财政可持续的城市更新模式 ——天津市的实证分析

研究目的：基于价值捕获理论建立符合中国现行制度的城市更新模式,以识别可行的城市更新项目,明确其优先序,实现城市更新的财政可持续目标。研究方法：空间分析和多元聚类法。研究结果：（1）从价值捕获的视角,城市更新项目可分为价值捕获型、难价值捕获型和增值不显著型。其中,价值捕获型项目对城市更新项目可持续开展起到重要作用。（2）利用包含公共设施完备度、地价增值空间、更新成本、项目面积和地类适宜性5项指标的评价体系,可有效识别价值捕获型项目和非价值捕获型项目,明确各项目的实施顺序。（3）公共设施完备度提升是实现城市更新地价增值的基础,天津市的实证分析表明,相比于地铁站和小学,三级医院、商服中心和绿地覆盖率提升是更为迫切的方面。（4）实证分析中,82个待更新项目中至少27个可归为价值捕获型,其中西沽、同义庄、席厂下坡项目等适于优先开展城市更新。研究结论：建立识别价值捕获型等不同类项目的指标体系,根据体系的分析结果开展城市更新工作,是一种财政可持续的城市更新模式。     

Why the self-employed are happier: Evidence from 25 European countries

Using survey data from 25 European countries, we can show that in most of the countries the self-employed are more satisfied with their jobs than employees. This paper aims to discuss the reasons why this is the case. The results show that part of the differences in job satisfaction between employees and self-employed individuals are due to creativity and autonomy in self-employment. This suggests that our results are in line with procedural utility theory ( and ). In other words, especially self-employed individuals seem to derive utility from the way outcomes are achieved.