The Media's Role in Influencing Perceptions of Housing Values and the Resulting Impact on the Macroeconomy

The housing market is a major component of the economy and persistent negative media reports can adversely affect perceptions and expectations of homeowners as to the value of their home. As a result, households reduce their expenditures and increase their savings in an effort to rebuild lost wealth. In the short run the economy suffers and the recession is magnified. This paper demonstrates, through an empirical study, how negative media reports regarding the deteriorating conditions of the national housing market affects what households feel their housing is worth.     

中国房地产泡沫到底有多大

利用Ramsey模型，采取资本边际收益率法，实证测试了2000～2004年我国房地产的泡沫度，得出了期间我国房地产经历了从负泡沫、无泡沫到正泡沫演变的结论。     

Arena-based events and crime: an analysis of hourly robbery data

This article makes use of hourly crime counts to model the relationship between events that take place at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ and robberies, an arena that has caused local controversy regarding the costs and benefits of hosting such an entertainment venue. Results from the econometric model suggest that the NHL’s New Jersey Devils ice hockey games, concerts, and Disney-themed events are all associated with increases in robbery, while various other event categories such as the NBA basketball games played by the Nets and boxing, and mixed martial arts (MMA) matches are not associated with an increase. These findings support two complementary ecological theories of crime that focus on how events provide additional opportunities for crime by increasing the associated benefits while simultaneously decreasing the cost for economically motivated offenders to take advantage of.     

资本市场泡沫和市值蒸发的理论思考

货币资源的可增值性为货币资源的膨胀、萎缩,提供了必要前提,资本市场的虚拟性又为资本市场泡沫和市值的蒸发提供了条件,资本市场上经常出现的缺口,通过进一步影响货币资源,催化资本市场泡沫的增大与破灭,市场的膨胀与蒸发。缺口效应增加泡沫和市值膨胀,属虚增的社会财富。而缺口破灭的泡沫市值蒸发则造成社会财富的损失。为此要发挥政府的宏观管理职能,保持资本市场供求平衡,保持宏观经济政策的稳定性和持续性,减少货币资源的浪费和损失。     

旅游罩:类型、形成机制及其对旅游业发展的启示

旅游罩(tourism bubble)的研究在我国尚未见相关文献,相比较而言,国外的研究已有一定的基础.本文首先引入旅游罩的概念范畴,并对其基本类型作了进一步的划分,认为在旅游活动中,主要存在旅游者罩(tourist bubble)、旅游业罩(tourism industry bubble)和旅游目的地罩(tourist destination bubble)三种不同类型的旅游罩.在此基础上,探讨了不同类型旅游罩的形成机制,认为旅游者的心理因素形成了旅游者罩,大众旅游组织方式形成了旅游业罩,旅游目的地的规划和管理因素形成旅游目的地罩.最后,文章分析了旅游罩对旅游业发展的启示,认为旅游罩的形成和存在在一定程度上对旅游业的发展是不利的,需要采取相关的措施,控制旅游罩的形成或打破旅游罩,以促进旅游业的健康、有序、协调发展.     

The impact of perceived security and consumer innovativeness on e-loyalty in online travel shopping

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impacts of perceived security and consumer innovativeness on online travel shopping. A survey questionnaire was used to collect data and a total of 283 questionnaires were used for data analysis. The mechanism of perceived security and consumer innovativeness was then identified. The study results indicate that: (1) higher perceived security increases the perception of website image and trust; (2) consumers with a higher level of innovativeness tend to trust travel websites; (3) website image has a mediating effect between perceived security and trust; and (4) trust has a mediating effect between website image and e-loyalty.     

Adaptive Learning in an Expectational Difference Equation with Several Lags: Selecting among Learnable REE

It is demonstrated that adaptive learning in the least squares sense may be incapable of satisfactorily reducing the number of attainable equilibria in a rational expectations model when focusing on the forward‐solutions to the model. The model examined, as an illustration, is a basic asset pricing model for exchange rate determination that is augmented with technical trading in the currency market in the form of moving averages since it is the most commonly used technique according to questionnaire surveys. The forward‐solutions to such a model are preferable to the backward‐solutions that are normally utilized since announcement effects is an important feature in currency trade. Because of technical trading in foreign exchange, the current exchange rate depends on j _max lags of the exchange rate, meaning that the model has j _max+1 rational expectations equilibria, where several of them are adaptively learnable in the least squares sense. However, since past exchange rates should not affect the current exchange rate when technical trading is absent, it is possible to single out a unique equilibrium among the adaptively learnable equilibria that is economically meaningful. It is worth noting that the model examined can also be viewed as a model for stock price determination in which the forward‐solutions to the model are preferable to the backward‐solutions since the importance of announcement effects is a common characteristic for currency and stock markets.     

Why Do Some Households Save So Little? A Rational Explanation

This paper offers an explanation for the puzzle of low wealth holdings among a significant fraction of the elderly. Instead of invoking irrational, nonrational, or nonoptimal behavior to resolve the puzzle, it is shown that widespread low wealth holdings are consistent with a rational life-cycle model of saving with uncertain lifetime and borrowing constraint. When there is uncertainty about the length of life, it is optimal for some individuals to save little and exhaust their wealth early. The characteristics of these individuals are derived. The simulation results support that the model can account for low wealth holdings as well as early terminal wealth depletion. The analysis also rejects the common perception that uncertain lifetime reduces dissaving. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D11, D91, E21, I12, J14.     

绿色财富观:生态文明时代人类的理性选择

如果说农业文明社会是以土地资产为主流的财富观,那么工业文明社会则是以有形和无形资产为主流的财富观,而生态文明时代理应是以绿色财富为主流的财富观。本文以生态文明时代为背景,以科学发展观为指导,对绿色财富内涵特征、分类以及构建策略进行了探讨.     

对大学文化的理性认知与现实建构——大众文化批判的视角

大众文化和理性主义之间不是对立物,在大众文化悖兴的背景下,发挥大学新功能已成为新思路。应从理论与实践的统一上认识大众文化和理性主义的关系,坚持理性逻辑,树立理想主义精神,发挥马克思主义在大学文化建设的导向作用,坚持大学的功能和发展方向,在传承文化精华的基础上实现批判超越,并以理性逻辑建构大学文化。