对人民币汇率和通货膨胀的思考

2005年7月汇改后,人民币汇率兑美元呈现加速升值的走势。与此同时,国内居民消费价格指数(CPI)上扬,人民币国内购买力呈贬值态势。物价的上涨使大多数劳动者无法从人民币汇率升值中受益,也将使人民币兑美元升值现象难以持久。本文认为在当前人民币兑美元汇率仍存在升值预期下应未雨绸缪,积极疏导流动性过剩,稳定物价水平。     

Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan

This paper explores theoretically and empirically the medium- and long-run relation of the terms of trade (ratio of traded goods prices) and economic growth of a pair of countries—one of which experiences a major catch-up process towards the other. Two theoretical interdependencies between the terms of trade and economic growth are offered: the home-market effect and the productivity-shock effect. These two effects are tested against each other in a cointegration analysis on data for Japan and the US from 1971 until 1997. Income is cointegrated with the terms of trade. The relevant empirical channel is the home-market effect. However, financial-market effects appear also to be relevant. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (4) (2007) 470–488.     

CURRENCY BOARD ARRANGEMENTS AS A SUPER‐FIXED ALTERNATIVE IN THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIME1

Currency board arrangements (CBAs) are currently widely proposed as a super‐fixed exchange rate solution to exchange rate volatility. This paper researches the nature, operation, benefits and disadvantages of CBAs. Benefits comprise improved policy credibility, lower inflation and interest rate levels, increased economic growth, increased foreign capital flows, and sharply reduced currency speculation. These are compared with the shortcomings of CBAs, such as the absence of a lender of last resort, real exchange rate misalignments and their consequences for the economy. The paper identifies the type of country that would be the most likely candidate to benefit from a CBA.     

20世纪90年代美国货币政策及对我国目前的启示

1993～2000年的美国和目前的中国都出现了高增长、低通胀的局面,一般认为美联储的货币政策为之作出很大贡献。本文在借鉴的基础上就我国目前在高增长、低通胀下的货币政策的几个主要问题提出建议。     

内部收益保证下养老基金的最优资产配置

研究内部收益保证下DC型养老基金的最优资产配置问题。利用鞅方法，在HJM利率期限结构下求得了最优资产配置的显性解。结论表明最优投资策略分为四部分：投机策略、利率套期保值策略、基准组合的复制策略及一揽予债券卖空策略。最后对最优策略的动态行为进行了数值分析。     

走进直销店——探访日本农产品流通新路

现在日本全国大约有1万家以上的农产品直销店,大多数都是在上世纪90年代泡沫经济破灭后开办的,属于农产品流通业态的新军。最近的统计显示,日本的农产品直销店的全年销售总额已超过6000亿日元,这相当于日本东北三县的农业生产总额。农产品直销店不仅使众多的农家获得了新生,更在一些地区带动了观光农业、食育事业、农家餐厅等城市和农村的交流项目,并引起了一股对传统菜肴和家乡菜再认识和评价的热潮。虽然中日两国的国情不同,但就中国国内的农产品流通的现状来看,笔者认为还是大有可借鉴之处的。从近年来困扰国内农产品流通的一大问题,即流通过程中的流通成本居高不下、流通环节仍然过多过杂的角度来看,农产品直销店的做法可以缓解这些相应的问题,而且文中已提到的其他相关作用也可以作为我们的积极参考。     

Characteristic properties of multivariate survival functions in terms of residual life distributions

This paper discusses the relationships among some characteristic properties of the multivariate survival function based on the residual life distribution, and provides the conditions for their equivalence. In the meanwhile, the corrected version of Ma (1996, Theorem 1 (ii) and (iii)) is given.     

固定利率住房抵押贷款对我国商业银行利率风险的影响

我国利率市场化改革正在稳步地向前推进,利率风险在商业银行经营和管理中的重要性正在、并且将会不断凸现。目前,我国商业银行的利率敏感性资产小于利率敏感性负债,重新定价缺口为负缺口,固定利率住房抵押贷款的推出使重新定价负缺口有进一步扩大的趋势。本文从边际的角度分析了固定利率住房抵押贷款对我国商业银行利率风险的影响。由于目标间的冲突,文章的结尾指出我国商业银行有实现战略转型,由目前短期内净利息收入最大化实现向股东权益价值最大化转变,同时兼顾监管时期内资本金条件约束的现实必要性与迫切性。     

The dilemma of exchange rate arrangements in East Asia

This paper analyzes exchange rate flexibility in East Asia and explores what has changed since the Asian financial crisis. Our focus is not on the choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime in East Asia, but rather on exchange rate flexibility and management in the region. We find that exchange rate management in East Asia differs based on the country and the time period. We identify major concerns about current exchange rate arrangements in East Asia, including asymmetric responses to external shocks, competitive devaluation, and the dilemma of choosing between asset dollarization and liability dollarization. The paper concludes with some policy implications for an exchange rate arrangement in East Asia.