The Ruin Probability of a Discrete Time Risk Model under Constant Interest Rate with Heavy Tails

This paper investigates the ultimate ruin probability of a discrete time risk model with a positive constant interest rate. Under the assumption that the gross loss of the company within one year is subexponentially distributed, a simple asymptotic relation for the ruin probability is derived and compared to existing results.     

建筑工程造价有效控制的途径浅析

本文从建筑工程项目的决策、设计、招标、施工阶段的造价控制,以及工程量清单计价和造价控制的信息化等方面探讨了有效控制建筑工程造价的有效途径。     

谈谈当前我省消灭无标生产工作的情况和问题

总结甘肃省开展消灭无标生产工作带来的变化，分析提出工作中存在的新情况、新问题及其对策。     

城市住宅型房地产项目财务成本构成及控制分析——以福州市为例

我国城市住宅商品房市场经过十余年上升式发展,多方面因素导致2008年开始进入下行周期,出现"量价齐跌",加大这些住宅型房地产企业的财务成本压力.通过分析开发项目的成本构成,提出恰当的目标成本控制手段,以利于实现房地产企业的利润最大化.     

Exchange rate versus inflation targeting: a theory of output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors

This paper develops a basic model for output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors under two alternative monetary policy regimes; exchange rate targeting (or monetary union) and inflation targeting. The conventional wisdom from one-sector models says that inflation targeting gives better output stabilization than exchange rate targeting when demand shocks occur, but the opposite when supply shocks occur. In a model with a traded and a non-traded sector, we show that the conventional wisdom holds for the non-traded sector. However, for the traded sector, we show that inflation targeting destabilizes output compared with exchange rate targeting when both supply and demand shocks occur. The only shocks where inflation targeting provides the better output stability for the traded sector are shocks to world market prices. The two-sector structure introduces new mechanisms that may turn around earlier results for aggregate production. For instance, a demand shock may induce higher aggregate output fluctuations with inflation targeting than with exchange rate targeting. Furthermore, a positive demand shock may prove to be contractionary under inflation targeting.     

‘Znakomstva I Svyazi’ (Acquaintances and connections) – Blat,the Soviet Union,and mundane entrepreneurship

The discussion regarding entrepreneurship and society has often presupposed that this society by necessity will be one that embraces the market economy as a guiding principle. This paper questions this assumption by discussing a command economy, namely the Soviet Union, as a fundamentally entrepreneurial society. By introducing the case of the blat, ‘Russia’s economy of favours’, the paper illustrates how mundane individual economies can be a part of entrepreneurship, and how flexible opportunity networks can support the rigidity of a command economy. Continuing from this, the exclusion of such irregular economies is discussed from an ideological rather than an analytic standpoint. The paper further presents some inferences that can be drawn from the case of the blat and which problematizes common assumptions in entrepreneurship studies.     

Inflation and capital accumulation in an OLG model with money in the production function

This article analyses the consequences of the money supply growth rate on capital intensity and economic growth in an overlapping-generations model with real balances entering the production function. Within this theoretical framework, anticipated inflation generates an ambiguous effect on capital–labour ratio, because two forces work simultaneously in opposite directions: one driving towards a pure Tobin effect (due to the OLG demographic structure of the economy) and the other pushing down the capital stock (due to the productive role of real balances). Despite the unclear effects exerted on capital intensity, higher monetary growth rates unambiguously reduce real money demand, consumption, total wealth and welfare.     

Sources of time-varying trade balance and real exchange rate dynamics in East Asia

A sticky-price model with minimal assumptions for identification is used to motivate a time-varying model that allows for state dependent innovations to explore the trade balance dynamics of a group of East Asian economies. This paper shows that the correlation between the trade balance and the real exchange has historically been highly conditional on the type of macroeconomic shock. Permanent (transitory) shocks have historically produced a positive (negative) correlation between the trade balance and real exchange rate over the last 20 years. Second, since the Asian financial crisis the real exchange rate dynamics of the East Asian countries have been dominated by persistent component(s), while the dynamics of the trade balance have been more influenced by transitory factors.     

A Jump-diffusion Model for Exchange Rates in a Target Zone

We propose a simple jump-diffusion model for an exchange rate target zone. The model captures most stylized facts from the existing target zone models while remaining analytically tractable. The model is based on a modified two-limit version of the C OX , I NGERSOLL and R OSS (1985) model. In the model the exchange rate is kept within the band because the variance decreases as the exchange rate approaches the upper or lower limits of the band. We also consider an extension of the model with parity adjustments, which are modeled as Poisson jumps. Estimation of the model is by GMM based on conditional moments. We derive prices of currency options in our model, assuming that realignment jump risk is idiosyncratic. Throughout, we apply the theory to EMS exchange rate data. We show that, after the EMS crisis of 1993, currencies remain in an implicit target zone which is narrower than the officially announced target zones.     

利率-汇率联动:理论综述与实证检验

利率风险和汇率风险是市场系统风险管理中最重要的因素,但两者之间并不是完全无关的,而是具有深刻的理论逻辑.文章回顾了利率汇率联动的相关文献,归纳了国内外学者对这一课题的研究成果,并对人民币利率一汇率联动状况进行了相关实证检验.认识并善于利用利率汇率联动性,有助于金融机构动态把握市场风险,实现资本配置最优化.