MCMC ESTIMATION OF LÉVY JUMP MODELS USING STOCK AND OPTION PRICES

We examine the performances of several popular Lévy jump models and some of the most sophisticated affine jump‐diffusion models in capturing the joint dynamics of stock and option prices. We develop efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for estimating parameters and latent volatility/jump variables of the Lévy jump models using stock and option prices. We show that models with infinite‐activity Lévy jumps in returns significantly outperform affine jump‐diffusion models with compound Poisson jumps in returns and volatility in capturing both the physical and risk‐neutral dynamics of the S&P 500 index. We also find that the variance gamma model of Madan, Carr, and Chang with stochastic volatility has the best performance among all the models we consider.     

PRICING ASIAN OPTIONS FOR JUMP DIFFUSION

We construct a sequence of functions that uniformly converge (on compact sets) to the price of an Asian option, which is written on a stock whose dynamics follow a jump diffusion. The convergence is exponentially fast. We show that each element in this sequence is the unique classical solution of a parabolic partial differential equation (not an integro‐differential equation). As a result we obtain a fast numerical approximation scheme whose accuracy versus speed characteristics can be controlled. We analyze the performance of our numerical algorithm on several examples.     

Growth uncertainty,generalized disappointment aversion and production-based asset pricing

We study a production economy with regime switching in the conditional mean and volatility of productivity growth. The representative agent has generalized disappointment aversion (GDA) preferences. We show that volatility risk in productivity growth carries a positive and sizable risk premium in levered equity. Our model can endogenously generate long-run risks in the volatility of consumption growth observed in the data. We show that introducing leverage with a procyclical dividend process consistent with the data is critical for the GDA preferences to have a large impact on equity returns.     

基于期权定价理论的风险投资决策

项目评价的传统方法———净现值(NPV)法在应用于风险投资项目时,由于低估了投资价值,往往会使得投资者失去一些有价值的投资机会。结合风险投资的特性,将期权定价理论应用于风险投资决策中,并建立连续及离散两种状态下的决策模型     

法律判决经济价值效应的金融学分析

法律判决不仅体现了法律对当事人在事件中关系的判断与处置,也会由此产生对当事人乃至全社会的经济价值效应。对于前者,判决体现的是法律的判断;对于后者,传统理论普遍认为是一个零和游戏。然而,从金融学的资产定价理论出发,却发现法律判决的社会经济价值效应并非零和,而且这些价值不仅影响了社会经济活动的行为判断,还对某些资产定价的传统理论提出了挑战。     

对价方式、盈余管理与市场绩效

选取国有企业控制权转移的样本,剖析有偿转让和无偿转让这两种不同对价方式对盈余管理的影响,并对不同的对价方式下控制权转移是否改进了企业的中短期及长期的市场绩效进行经验检验。研究发现：（1）有偿转让控制权的对价方式更易推动上市公司通过操控应计利润调低净资产,提高溢价率,以符合政策要求;（2）在整体上无偿类样本相对于同行业公...     

需求与生产成本扰动下的供应链最优定价订货模型

文章分析了供应链运作过程中由于突发事件引起的各种扰动,构建了由一个供应商和一个零售商组成的单周期单一产品供应链的Stackelberg博弈模型。在这个模型中,假设需求函数是指数函数,而生产成本函数为严格凸的两元一次函数,将订货量及其他影响生产成本的扰动因素引入模型,分析了不同情况下的供应链最优定价订货策略,并对各种结果进行了分析。结果表明,扰动发生后,供应链的定价、订货及收益均会发生变化。供应链将扰动带来的部分成本转嫁到消费者身上,供应商和零售商需要重新确立新的合作契约以确保供应链有序平稳的运行。     

阶梯定价、实时定价及其潜在影响

针对实施居民用电梯度定价的决定,研究认为,此次电价调整将提高整体电价水平。阶梯定价只是一种调节收入分配的手段,并没有促进电力行业资源的有效配置。对于未来的电价改革,在引入阶梯定价的框架下,仍存在较大的改革空间。可以考虑在阶梯定价中嵌入实时定价,据此可以用多元化的手段实现不同的目标。但这一切依赖于利益相关者是否具有改革的动力。     

Mixed logit analysis of trade-off effects between international airline fares and fences: a revenue management perspective

As transportation is essential for tourism development, effectively utilizing its perishable resources has become an important issue. This study aims to analyse the relationship between airline fares and using conditions from the perspective of millennial tourists and taking the Taipei–Tokyo market as an example. The study attempts to show a revenue management practice in the manipulation of homogeneous seat service and give millennial tourists a better understanding of their preferences for ticket choices. We categorize availability of flight, advance booking, ticket validity, and changing conditions as main attributes and develop a stated-preference questionnaire with multiple hypothetical scenarios for respondents to select in the experiment. We effectively collect 390 valid samples for a mixed logit analysis and the results show that all applied attributes are statistically significant. Ticket validity is revealed to be the most important fence with the largest willingness-to-pay value and followed by availability of flight, advanced booking, and changing conditions.