Trouble in Paradise: the 2007–2009 Global Economic Recession and Hawai'i's Visitor Industry

This is a case study of the impact of the global economic recession of 2007–2009 on Hawai'i's visitor industry. The industry responded to the downturn largely with advertising blitzes to its primary market on the US mainland. Notwithstanding these efforts, diminished lift capacity and visitor arrivals, combined with widespread discounting, resulted in a 26% decrease in real visitor spending in 2009 versus that in 2006. The industry recovered during 2010 and 2011, but major hotel foreclosures, State bond downgrades and lost accommodations jobs are enduring scars. The experience demonstrated anew Hawai'i's need to strengthen its visitor industry and diversify its economy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

美国金融危机及应对策略

美国金融危机主要在于金融风险内生力量和外部环境两个因素,其所引发的世界经济衰退导致中国经济增长减速。从经济学的角度来分析,中国应该在扩大投资、促进国内消费、扩大政府支出、继续促进出口等方面,积极应对金融危机和经济衰退,同时要继续注重环境与生态的保护。     

The cul-de-sac of foreign industrial investments to Russia

Abstract

The aim of this article is to determine the rationale for the ‘irrational’ investment behaviour of multinational corporations (MNCs) in Russia. During the on-going recession in a number of major sectors, MNCs have undertaken only a very limited number of divestments and, instead, have commissioned a record number of new manufacturing facilities (by opening new plants and expanding the capacities of existing plants). To explain this phenomenon, we first provide an overview of existing theoretical and empirical studies on investments in difficult locations and divestments of foreign subsidiaries, and identify the major weaknesses of the prevailing approaches and underlying assumptions of such studies. Next, we present a detailed picture of both industrial investments and divestments in Russia from January 2015 to March 2017. Finally, we indicate how a combination of systemic and contingent factors (pressure from the host country’s government, subsidiaries’ orientation towards the host country’s markets, and the absence of potential local and international acquirers for existing Russian manufacturing facilities of Western MNCs) has created ‘cul-de-sac’ conditions for foreign-owned industrial assets in Russia.     

山东棉花生产的衰退与集中：一个比较优势分析框架

[目的]近几年来,山东棉花生产严重衰退,同时伴生棉花生产布局的大幅调整和集中。需进一步探明相同的外部市场环境和类似的产业发展条件下,山东棉花衰退与集中的缘由。[方法]利用1995年、2005年、2015年山东主要植棉县的生产统计资料,计算规模优势指数、单产优势指数、集中度优势指数、综合优势指数,并对比测算结果与现实集中情况的匹配程度,证实山东省棉花生产的区域布局在不断优化,棉花生产逐渐向比较优势县(区)集中。[结果]山东棉花生产的衰退与集中符合区域棉花生产的比较优势,是农民根据棉花生产的市场机会、比较优势(古典比较优势和内生比较优势)和市场深化的宏观经济环境做出的理性选择。[结论]今后山东的棉花生产应有进有退,在生产优势县(区)实施更具针对性的棉花支持政策,加强对鲁西北盐碱地棉花育种与栽培技术的科研支持,缩小因自然因素导致的产量缺口,争取让国家目标价格政策覆盖到省内三大棉花优势区域,并在黄河三角洲设立国家级棉花生产保护区。     

The Lasting Well-Being Effects of Early Adulthood Macroeconomic Crises

This paper studies the effects of macroeconomic crises experienced in early adulthood on subjective well-being (SWB) later in life. Using repeated cross-sectional survey data of over 100,000 individuals from 38 countries around the world combined with historical data on macroeconomic circumstances, I find that having experienced a macroeconomic crisis at ages 18–25 is detrimental to SWB. This result is in line with earlier literature that focuses on other individual-level outcomes. However, the analysis presented in this paper reveals that outcomes related to individual’s earnings, employment status, family life, and religion cannot fully explain the lasting effect of macroeconomic crises on well-being. Results on heterogeneous responses show that the negative effect is largest for females and for individuals with low educational attainment.     

Time-varying connectedness of metropolitan housing markets

We construct a time-varying measure of connectedness for 382 U.S. metropolitan housing markets using monthly house price data from 1975 to the present. Housing connectedness in the long run is found to be much stronger than the instantaneous connectedness, both of which exhibit notable variation over time and across metropolitan areas. Unlike stock market connectedness, housing market connectedness leads the business cycle; it helps predict the likelihood of future recessions.