Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?

This article uses a small set of variables – real GDP, the inflation rate and the short-term interest rate – and a rich set of models – atheoretical (time series) and theoretical (structural), linear and nonlinear, as well as classical and Bayesian models – to consider whether we could have predicted the recent downturn of the US real GDP. Comparing the performance of the models to the benchmark random-walk model by root mean-square errors, the two structural (theoretical) models, especially the nonlinear model, perform well on average across all forecast horizons in our ex post, out-of-sample forecasts, although at specific forecast horizons certain nonlinear atheoretical models perform the best. The nonlinear theoretical model also dominates in our ex ante, out-of-sample forecast of the Great Recession, suggesting that developing forward-looking, microfounded, nonlinear, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models of the economy may prove crucial in forecasting turning points.     

Recession,terms of trade,and immigrants

The current literature does not adequately analyze how economic crisis affects employment of immigrants in host countries. It is generally believed that immigrants lose jobs and return home during recession. We show that recession may instead help relatively unskilled immigrants when it leads to terms-of-trade improvement in the host country, and when the unskilled sector is protected by minimum wage regulations. We also derive the condition under which the income gap between natives and immigrants falls.     

台湾资产不景气时期物价变动之计量分析

在1990-2002年中国台湾经济处于资产不景气时期,消费者物价呈温和上扬走势。为探讨在这段时期物价的走势与决定因素,本文以物价水准的计量分析,从成本面与需求面上找出最适的解释变权。并对于物价水平有较密切关系的变数,进行pearson相关系数分析,而后进行回归分析以便了解变数间的相关程度。总之,在这段分析期间,消费者物价变动的决定因素与趸售物价不尽相同。进口物价的变动直接冲击着趸售物价,然后再经由趸售物价而传递到消费者物价的变动上,此时,预期心理的因素仍扮演较重的角色。     

日本模式与日本经济复苏

本文阐述了日本经济从辉煌到衰退、又重现生机的过程及历史背景 ,对其衰退的主要原因——日本模式的悲哀——以及再生重振的软硬件条件和发展的潜力进行了探讨 ,并通过多种统计数据的分析对其前景进行了展望。     

Looking into the abyss? Brazil at the mid-2010s

In 2015, the Brazilian economy was afflicted by a lethal combination of a falling level of activity and accelerating inflation. Expectations for 2016 are equally or even more adverse, since the effects of rising unemployment emerge only after a lag. The domestic debate has opposed analysts who believe the crisis is due exclusively to past policy mistakes to analysts who believe that all was well until the government decided to implement austerity policies in 2015. A closer examination of the evidence shows that in fact both reasons contributed to causing the crisis, but it also suggests that its depth has a more proximate cause in the political collapse of the federal government in 2015, which led Brazilian society to an impasse for which a solution is not yet in view.     

区域创新系统衰退机理研究

本文运用社会燃烧理论分析了区域创新系统的衰退以及衰退机理,并进行实证研究,结果表明：区域创新系统存在衰退现象;区域创新系统衰退可发生在区域创新系统发展的任一阶段;区域创新系统的衰退存在着阶段性。本文首次将社会燃烧理论引入对区域创新系统研究中,并首次用来分析区域创新系统的衰退机理,丰富了区域创新系统的理论研究,并对区域创新系统的发展具有指导意义。     

South Pacific tourism in the mid-1980s

The Pacific Islands have weathered the world economic recession well, but not without changes in their approach to tourism. Poor economic conditions coupled with US airline deregulation caused considerable reassessment. The fear of recession, together with optimism concerning the future resulted in new services (while others were going out of business), a spate of hotel construction plans (even in areas with low occupancy rates) and a softening of attitudes towards tourism. The possibility of a huge Pacific Basin (Rim) market strongly influenced these development policies.     

论20世纪90年代日本的景气刺激对策

日本泡沫经济崩溃以后，政府为了刺激经济景气在1992至2000年期间，曾10次推行刺激对策，追加了130多万亿日元的公共投资，但由于种种原因，投资乘数效果降低，经济长期处于低迷，景气刺激对策及其效果值得研究和深思。