The Relationship between Anthropology and Economics

This article provides an institutional perspective on a recent effort by the author to develop a comprehensive empirical model of the “high-tech” sector of the Texas economy.¹ The model is unique in that it incorporates institutional phenomena into econometric analysis. This approach has been suggested by the author in previous work.²     

Stock Volatility during the Recent Financial Crisis

This paper uses monthly returns from 1802 to 2010, daily returns from 1885 to 2010, and intraday returns from 1982 to 2010 in the USA to show how stock volatility has changed over time. It also uses various measures of volatility implied by option prices to infer what the market was expecting to happen in the months following the financial crisis in late 2008. This episode was associated with historically high levels of stock market volatility, particularly among financial sector stocks, but the market did not expect volatility to remain high for long and it did not. This is in sharp contrast to the prolonged periods of high volatility during the Great Depression. Similar analysis of stock volatility in the United Kingdom and Japan reinforces the notion that the volatility seen in the 2008 crisis was relatively short‐lived. While there is a link between stock volatility and real economic activity, such as unemployment rates, it can be misleading.     

国际金融危机对中国经济冲击过程的系统回顾和思考

以国际金融危机发生为起点,按事件发生的先后顺序,系统、全面地分析了国际金融危机对中国经济冲击过程、冲击途径和冲击程度,并用分行业和分地区的数据进行了计量检验;以全新的视角对政府调控的作用进行了归纳;经济回升是政府调控结果,回升又带动经济内在动力的增加,从而为政府退出创造条件。     

Estimation of foreign MNEs spillovers in Spain

Using Spanish firm-level data, we estimate productivity effects of spillovers from foreign multinationals to domestic firms in both manufacturing and service sectors. We find evidence of a positive productivity effect from multinationals on domestic firms operating in the same industry. Analyzing inter-industry linkages, we find evidence consistent with positive productivity spillovers from forward linkages (i.e. from suppliers to buyers) and negative productivity spillovers from backward linkages (i.e. from buyers to suppliers). Our main results hold when analyzing differences between multinational and domestic firms, and for periods of economic growth and recession, although some differences arise. Interestingly, we find evidence supporting a positive role of spillovers during the last recession period.     

经济寒冬下的企业国际化状况——基于台州企业的实证研究

文章首先讨论了研究背景,认为成本、宏观货币政策、出口导向政策、汇率波动以及外部需求变化等是企业出口的主要影响因素。然后阐述了本研究的调查方法和内容,组织了30名学生对152家出口企业进行问卷调查以及20位企业经理进行访谈调查,从台州企业国际化经营基本状况,外部环境变化对企业国际化经营的影响,企业内部要素状况,企业的未来发展趋势及计划等几个方面进行分析。最后,得出结论,台州企业在国际化进程中还处在初级阶段,在危机中应立足转型升级,蓄势崛起,政府和行业协会的帮扶作用有待提高。     

产业政策影响了衰退期企业的并购决策吗?

产业政策是国家优化社会资源配置、调整产业结构的一种重要调控手段。研究产业政策对衰退期企业战略调整具有重要的现实意义。以2013—2018年A股上市企业的并购事件为研究样本,实证检验了产业政策对衰退期企业并购决策的影响、作用路径和经济后果。结果显示:衰退期企业更倾向于并购产业政策支持行业的企业,当衰退期企业所在行业本身不受产业政策支持时这种现象更加明显;从作用机制来看,产业政策具有明显的\"资源效应\",即当衰退期企业的融资约束程度越大时向产业政策支持行业进行并购的可能性更大,这种偏好在民营企业中更明显;从作用效果来看,衰退期企业向产业政策扶持的行业进行并购能够提升并购绩效。