A Proposed Segmentation Framework for the Outdoor Recreation Market

Various segmentation variables and their usefulness are examined in the context of the outdoor recreation market.The utilization of values as an augmenting variable is proposed and discussed. In addition, a model of the interrelationship between values, demographic, attitudes toward outdoor recreation, and outdoor recreation behavior is developed.     

论“人口红利”衰退及其效应最大化

我们有1／4以上的人均GDP的增长是靠人口年龄结构优势获得的。但2010年比以往更加突出的用工荒现象却使得专家们纷纷发出“刘易斯拐点”的警告，无论刘易斯拐点是否已经到来，我国“人口红利”衰退已是不争的事实，给社会经济发展既带来机遇又增加挑战，我们应采取调整人口政策、优化产业结构、提高劳动力素质、推动城乡一体化等措施来积极应对，实现“人口红利”效益最大化。     

The Relationship between Anthropology and Economics

This article provides an institutional perspective on a recent effort by the author to develop a comprehensive empirical model of the “high-tech” sector of the Texas economy.¹ The model is unique in that it incorporates institutional phenomena into econometric analysis. This approach has been suggested by the author in previous work.²     

Estimating Probabilities of Recession in Real Time Using GDP and GDI

This work estimates Markov switching models on real‐time data and shows that the growth rate of gross domestic income (GDI), deflated by the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, has done a better job recognizing the start of recessions than has the growth rate of real GDP. This result suggests that placing an increased focus on GDI may be useful in assessing the current state of the economy. In addition, the paper shows that the definition of a low‐growth phase in the Markov switching models changed considerably from 1978 to 2005. The models increasingly came to define this phase as an extended period of around zero rather than negative growth, diverging somewhat from the traditional definition of a recession.     

美国经济衰退的原因及解决的策略

近年来,美国的经济衰落严重地影响全球经济的健康发展。然而美国不甘心这种局面持续下去,在全球各地处处制造麻烦,以图混水摸鱼,挽救美国经济走出颓势。结果事与愿违,美国至今还没有从金融危机中走出来。那么是什么原因导致了美国的经济衰退呢,美国经济怎样做才能走出衰退的局面呢,这需要研究经济的人认真研究和探索,从中吸取教训,从而为中国经济的健康发展提供有益的借鉴。     

经济寒冬下的企业国际化状况——基于台州企业的实证研究

文章首先讨论了研究背景,认为成本、宏观货币政策、出口导向政策、汇率波动以及外部需求变化等是企业出口的主要影响因素。然后阐述了本研究的调查方法和内容,组织了30名学生对152家出口企业进行问卷调查以及20位企业经理进行访谈调查,从台州企业国际化经营基本状况,外部环境变化对企业国际化经营的影响,企业内部要素状况,企业的未来发展趋势及计划等几个方面进行分析。最后,得出结论,台州企业在国际化进程中还处在初级阶段,在危机中应立足转型升级,蓄势崛起,政府和行业协会的帮扶作用有待提高。     

Are there free rides out of a recession? The case of Switzerland

During the 2008/2009 recession, most countries resorted to discretionary fiscal policy measures. In this paper, we run two simulations with the KOF Swiss Economic Institute’s macroeconomic model to assess how both the Swiss stimulus measures, and the measures taken by Switzerland’s major trading partners, have affected the Swiss economy. The KOF baseline estimate incorporates fiscal stimulus packages in Switzerland and abroad. We re-run the model, modifying the exogenous variables to represent situations in which no fiscal action was taken (a) in Switzerland and (b) elsewhere. We find that the spillover from the foreign efforts to curb the recession dwarfs the effect of the domestic stimulus packages. In addition to making its own (rather limited) efforts to fight the recession, Switzerland also took a long free-ride that far exceeded the short one it paid for.     

China＇s Economy in 2007/2008： Coping with Problems of Runaway Growth

Fuelled by high domestic investment and rapid export expansion, China ＂s economy grew by ll.4 pereent in 2007, the highest increase since 1994 and the fifth eonseeutive year of double-digit growth. Such spectacular growth performance is unprecedented in the world＇s economic history. However, the Chinese Government is again worried about a possible ＂hard landing＂for the economy, as no economy can sustain very strong growth for extremely long period without overheating. Cracks in China ＂s economy are indeed emerging. The eonsumer priee index shot up to 6.9percent in November 2007, the highest level in a decade, with the annual inflation for 2007 rising to 4.S pereent, well above the government＇s ＂comfort level＂ of 3 percent. This prompted China＇s top leadership to declare that reducing economic overheating and curbing inflation would be the top poliey priorities for 2008. To contain such cost-push inflation, the government has to tackle its root causes, such as excessive liquidity, which is caused by the undervaluation of the renminbi, which in turn is attributable to China＇s chronic external and internal maeroeeonomie imbalances~ High growth is likely to continue in 2008, at around l O pereent, with inflation of S-6 pereent expected, despite the anticipated tighter maeroeeonomie control measures and the more troubled external economic environment （e.g. the expected US economic slowdown）. Regardless, China ＂s fundamental problems associated with runaway growth will largely remain. In addition, if the US economy slips into a serious recession, the Chinese economy will not be able to deeouple from it and escape unscathed.