论“人口红利”衰退及其效应最大化

我们有1／4以上的人均GDP的增长是靠人口年龄结构优势获得的。但2010年比以往更加突出的用工荒现象却使得专家们纷纷发出“刘易斯拐点”的警告,无论刘易斯拐点是否已经到来,我国“人口红利”衰退已是不争的事实,给社会经济发展既带来机遇又增加挑战,我们应采取调整人口政策、优化产业结构、提高劳动力素质、推动城乡一体化等措施来积极应对,实现“人口红利”效益最大化。     

日本寿险业的盛衰变迁及其对我国的启示

日本寿险业的盛衰变迁是日本保险业多年来盲目扩张、追求规模、过分依赖政府保护、缺乏富有竞争优势的管理体制、缺乏透明的经营管理及财务制度结构、资金运用失败的必然结果。为此，建议我国寿险业界着重从开发新险种、适当放宽保险资金的运用渠道、进一步加强对保险公司的法人监管及资金的专业化管理、建立健全保险业社团法人体系等诸方面寻求解决之道，进一步完善我国的寿险市场。     

试析美国经济的增长性衰退及对中国的影响

美国经济滑坡已持续 1年多时间 ,由于美国经济在世界经济中所占比重约为 30 % ,因而导致世界经济全面走软。本文首先分析了美国经济的现状 ,然后 ,引用世界银行提出的“增长性衰退”这一概念 ,分析了美国经济的未来走势。最后 ,文章根据结论分析了美国经济的增长性衰退对我国经济的影响     

中日“萧条经济”比较分析

根据《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大词典》对于“萧条”的定义,对照中,日两国的实际经济状况,我们可以认定目前中国和日本均处于“萧条经济”之中,但却分属两种不同类型,对两种萧条经济的特征,表现形式和原因等进行比较分析可以发现,货币政策对于二者的作用均不明显,但原因却有不同,目前,积极的财政政策应是两国共同的主要政策方向,同时,由于体制性因素是二者萧根本原因,故而作者主张进行结构调整。     

论20世纪90年代日本的景气刺激对策

日本泡沫经济崩溃以后，政府为了刺激经济景气在1992至2000年期间，曾10次推行刺激对策，追加了130多万亿日元的公共投资，但由于种种原因，投资乘数效果降低，经济长期处于低迷，景气刺激对策及其效果值得研究和深思。     

资产负债表的宏观管理研究——论治理经济危机的新思路

由于传统宏观经济管理分析包含健康的资产负债表这一微观经济基础,所以这些经济分析主要着眼于流量研究,看不到资产负债表衰退或不健康这一事实。本文通过资产负债表的存量分析,看到了真实经济、金融机构和资本市场之间的内在联系,丰富了宏观经济管理的微观基础理论,为治愈金融危机和经济危机提供了新的指导原则,从而为预防我国经济衰退寻找新的管理方案。     

The effect of science and technology parks on firms’ performance: how can firms benefit most under economic downturns?

The objective of this research is to evaluate the effect of the economic recession on the performance of firms located in science or technological parks. Compared to off-park firms, we propose that under an economic crisis park benefits are more noticeable, since firms located inside parks have less resource restraints and access to external sources of information and knowledge. Moreover, we observe that as firms invest on internal R&D, they tend to reinforce these park benefits. Empirical evidence gathered data on employment and sales from 2007 to 2012 for the group of firms which participated in the Spanish Technological Innovation Panel. The results confirm the positive role played by science and technology park locations under economic downturn environments, especially when firms investing in internal R&D.     

Securitization bubbles: Structured finance with disagreement about default risk

An additional reason for the structured finance boom of the 2000s may have been disagreement about default risk of collateral assets. When risk-neutral investors disagree about average default probabilities, structuring collateral cash flow raises prices by concentrating optimists’ demand on risky tranches. With disagreement about default correlation, low-correlation investors believe in diversification and pay high prices for senior tranches they deem riskless. High-correlation investors value junior tranches they expect to pay whenever aggregate conditions are good. Risk aversion and short selling through credit default swaps reduce the prices of both pass-through and structured securitizations but may increase the return to tranching.     

Investment Decisions in Anticipation of Recessions and Outperformance of Pre-Acting Firms

We empirically examine whether firms make investment decisions in anticipation of recessions and subsequently perform better. Using a large quarterly dataset of fixed asset investments for U.S. firms during 1984–2012, we show that not all firms efficiently adjust their investment decisions in anticipation of a recession. However, we find that pre-acting firms that properly adjust their investment decisions (i.e., underinvest) before a recession outperform re-acting firms that fail to make proper investment decisions (i.e., overinvest) before a recession in subsequent returns on assets, returns on investments, and market-adjusted return measures.