国际金融危机对中国经济冲击过程的系统回顾和思考

以国际金融危机发生为起点,按事件发生的先后顺序,系统、全面地分析了国际金融危机对中国经济冲击过程、冲击途径和冲击程度,并用分行业和分地区的数据进行了计量检验;以全新的视角对政府调控的作用进行了归纳;经济回升是政府调控结果,回升又带动经济内在动力的增加,从而为政府退出创造条件。     

After the great recession : financial sophistication and housing leverage

US households face various choices in saving for retirement, with one of the most common decisions related to maintaining or paying off a mortgage. Using the 2010 and 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances, this study investigates the relationship between financial sophistication and mortgage decisions among middle-age households. A Heckman two-stage selection model is employed to investigate two separate decisions: mortgage holding and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios among mortgage holders. Results indicate that financial sophistication is positively associated with carrying a mortgage and higher LTV ratios. These results imply that financially sophisticated households may be using leverage to increase asset returns.     

HRM and performance: the vulnerability of soft HRM practices during recession and retrenchment

This multi‐method case explores how change in HRM implementation can impact performance metrics in a recessionary climate. Qualitative HR outcome data are mapped against financial metrics to explore adoption of hard‐line HRM practices in a major UK retailer. Despite record profits throughout the recession, the organisation responded strategically to worsening conditions in the labour market, firstly to maintain operational flexibility, but then to opportunistically enlarge jobs and intensify work to help achieve immediate gains in financial metrics, including a gain of 37 per cent in profit per employee over 3 years. These gains were achieved by derailing commitment‐based approaches to HRM, pointing towards the vulnerability of soft HRM systems during times of austerity or retrenchment.     

Demand fluctuations,labour flexibility and productivity

There is a dearth of studies analysing the relationship between demand variations, productivity and flexible working in the face of variable demand challenges confronting the tourism industry. This investigation seeks to inform important firm and industry specific labour management strategies for improving productivity. Using data for 43 medium sized hotels owned by two chains in the UK, this paper analyses productivity in relation to external (demand variations) and internal (labour management) conditions over an 8 year period from 2005 to 2013. The paper’s findings show that demand variation is the principal determinant of productivity. Numerical, functional and zero-contract hour flexible labour management also contributes to labour productivity. Significant differences in findings between establishments and departments indicate the importance of disaggregated analyses.     

The polarization impact of the crisis on the Eurozone labour markets: a hierarchical cluster analysis

This study assesses the impact of the Great Recession (2008–2014) on the process of integration of the Eurozone labour markets. Through an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis using several European labour market harmonized indicators, we find that the crisis led to a greater integration, and to a polarization within the area. In the aftermath of crisis, two groups of countries clearly emerged, consisting Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and Netherlands in the core while Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain in the periphery.     

大衰退孕育着大创新——解读英国第一份以创新应对危机的报告

当前席卷全球的金融危机正深刻地影响和改变着世界经济的发展。英国作为危机的主要受创国之一，在应对危机方面有着独特的理论视角。由英国国家科技和艺术基金会出版的《应对衰退：创新如何拯救低靡》报告，成为英国以创新为主题促进社会长远转型的理论先声。报告提出危机孕育创新，应该从当前所采取的经济拯救计划中，孕育未来，促进社会长远转型，而不是简单的应对和危机管理，并第一次定义了这次危机是全球经济高度网络化的结果，必须构建新的网络结构予以应对（网络化衰退，网络化措施）。这些观点被理论界认为是介于凯恩斯主义和熊彼特创新理论之间的中间路线，提倡供需两方面推动，特别提倡创新是从长远角度增加需求和供给的现实选择。本文详细分析了报告的思想内涵，提出了在全球化、网络化背景下我国在制定创新政策时一定要具有全球视野等观点，对我国以创新应对危机具有一定的参考价值。     

The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Fiscal Policy

This paper reviews the recent evolution of thinking and evidence regarding the effectiveness of activist fiscal policy, including how policy multipliers might vary with respect to economic conditions. Like many other countries that were hit by the “Great Recession,” the USA responded initially with active fiscal policy measures. But a more positive view of fiscal intervention appears to have developed earlier in the decade, and estimated decision rules confirm that there was an increase in policy activism. While this positive view has been tested by the unclear effects of fiscal policy during the Great Recession, recent evidence does suggest that fiscal policy may be especially effective in recession. Fiscal policy activism has also been tempered by recent concerns about growing government debt, a development which potentially might also undercut the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy.     

The role of human capital after the crisis in Italy: A regional analysis

In the years of the prolonged post-crisis recession, the well-known North-South divide in Italy has significantly worsened. Several structural weaknesses limit both post-crisis recovery and socioeconomic convergence. A greater understanding of the economic contribution of workers' human capital, which is not fully exploited in Italy, could address the two issues. We analyze the effects of human capital on local economic performance and productivity, along with other socioeconomic variables, controlling for the endogeneity problem. Workers with a better education can promote economic recovery through productivity enhancement in the South, while traditional aspects related to industrialization are significant in the “wealthy North”. However, structural aspects, such as the local financial systems, must be developed to start a path to convergence for the North and the South.     

江苏三大区域FDl分布差异原因的实证分析

选取1993—2007年江苏三大区域（苏中、苏南、苏北）的七个指标——人均GDP、人口、进出口总值、城镇固定资产投资额、金融机构存款余额、政府财政支出和教育水平的面板数据，通过最小二乘法进行计量检验，并用逐步回归法进行模型修正。得出结论：苏南地区的FDI流入最重要的影响因素是政府支出、进出口总值、城镇固定资产投资额、人均GDP和金融机构存款余额；苏中地区是城镇固定资产投资额与金融机构存款余额：苏北地区为政府支出、金融机构存款余额、人口和人均GDP。以该结论为依据提出政策性建议，政府应加强对苏北地区的扶持，     

Multinational companies and human resource management in Ireland during recession: A retrospective from a highly globalized economy

This article provides a retrospective investigation of the impact of the recent “great recession” on human resource management (HRM) in multinational companies (MNCs) in Ireland. Ireland represents a particularly fitting location within which to address this topic given its standing as one of the world's most economically globalized and MNC‐dependent economies and also because the country was very severely impacted by the global financial crisis. Using both primary and secondary data from a variety of sources, our analysis considers the impact of recession on HRM in MNCs, with particular focus on employment, pay and benefits, industrial relations, and the role of the human resource (HR) function. The findings suggest that HR practitioners played a central role in implementing a series of initiatives, many of which were operational in nature, to improve business performance. In so doing, we argue that practitioners in MNCs in Ireland behaved as archetypical “conformist innovators” during the recent recession, delivering operational HR responses to improve their organization's bottom line.