KEYNES,KEYNESIANISM AND KRUGMAN

Short courses in economics carry an implicit warning: superficial analysis leads to simplistic conclusions. Where textbooks might be forgiven, a Nobel‐Prize‐winning economist who builds upon that superficiality deserves a reprimand.     

产能过剩与增长型衰退的货币责任——以房地产和光伏产业为例

货币投入对经济社会所具有的促进作用,是有利的货币供给冲击;而货币在短期内受高收益率的引诱而持续流入某个产业,导致该产业由产能过剩逐渐转向增长型衰退,就是不利的货币供给冲击。前者是货币的正面责任,后者则归于货币的负面责任。货币作为社会生产关系的产物,货币内在的社会性就要承担社会责任：中央银行应当在产业结构调整、治理产能过剩等方面制定和实施货币政策,对货币供给＂引导与控制＂;商业银行的贷款决策要警惕某些产业短期的高收益率,以规避引诱货币流入出现的＂信用繁荣＂;社会公众理性的投资行为,不仅能够获得合理稳定的投资收益,也是维护金融市场和货币体系秩序的内在要求。     

Lax money supply under globalization and detecting an early sign to anticipate deep recession

This article uncovers a macroeconomic threshold for avoiding deep recession under globalization. The analysis shows that there is a long-run natural rate of substitution between the broadest measure of money balances and nominal government spending, namely the natural fiscal velocity. Applying this threshold to the actual economy can give us two benefits: first, comparing the actual rate of substitution between the broadest measure of money balances and nominal government spending with the natural fiscal velocity can provide an early sign to anticipate deep recession under globalization. Second, controlling the actual fiscal velocity so as not to exceed the natural one is such a macro calibration that the authorities can easily justify their pre-emptive actions as a means of avoiding a deep recession trap under globalization.     

Forecasting US recessions with macro factors

Dynamic factors estimated from panels of macroeconomic indicators are used to predict future recessions using probit models. Three factors are considered: a bond and exchange rates factor, a stock market factor and a real activity factor. Three results emerge. First, models that use only financial indicators exhibit a large deterioration in fit after 2005. Second, models that use factors yield better fit than models that use indicators directly. Out-of-sample forecasting exercises confirm these results for 3-, 6- and 12-month horizons using both ex-post revised data and real-time data. Third, results show evidence that data revisions affect factors less than individual indicators.     

New development: Macroeconomic fables

This article uses a structural narratology approach to define four archetypal fables concerning managers and organizations, based on whether the narrative involves growth or decline for the protagonist and growth or decline for the organization which the protagonist leads. This approach is applied to three cases: a celebratory-political narrative about the Conservative Party of Canada's victory in the 2011 federal election; Charles Ferguson's Academy Award-winning documentary ‘Inside Job’ about the 2008 financial meltdown; and the ideological-polemical narratives of the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States. The article concludes that narrative analysis helps us understand the structure of these stories and helps us examine and question the assumptions about economic causation that they incorporate.     

经济衰退条件下基于企业动态能力的价值创造

本文分析了企业动态能力对企业价值创造的作用,指出企业动态能力对企业核心价值创造有着不可替代的地位,并以此为基础,结合全球经济衰退的大背景,对我国企业在全球经济不容乐观的条件下如何提升自身能力,应对危机,进行价值创造并尽快走出困境,提出了理论分析和建议。     

日本对外直接投资的新衰退与新动向、新特点

新世纪以来，由于国内外各种因素的影响，日本对外直接投资在上世纪90年代前期衰退的基础上，又出现了新的衰退。与此同时，日本对外直接投资的对象、内容、目的和方式也发生了相应的变化，出现了一些引人瞩目的新动向。     

广西工业产业结构现状分析与对策

文章从产业结构运行的比例性与平衡性、持续性与继起性、有序性与功能性上分析了广西工业产业结构的现状,提出了加大广西工业产业结构调整力度,促进产业结构优化升级的思路。     

Responsibilities,recession and the tourism sector: perspectives on CSR among low-fares airlines during the economic downturn in the UK

Responsibility has featured prominently in recent discussions about tourism governance. Nevertheless, research into corporate social responsibility (CSR) among travel and tourism businesses is at a relatively early stage. This paper reports on external stakeholders' perceptions of CSR among low-fares airlines (LFAs) in peripheral regions of the UK in late 2008; that is, during the current global economic downturn. LFAs, their business plans and their ability to contribute towards sustainable development have been the source of much public discourse and media scrutiny in the last decade. This paper does not set out to reopen that debate per se. Rather, it contributes to a deeper understanding of CSR in the tourism sector by arguing for a more nuanced approach to external stakeholders, one which is also informed by primary empirical research from qualitative sources, and which is conceptually informed by the latest thinking from other sectors of economic activity. Important inter-regional variations exist in external stakeholders' perceptions and valorisations of CSR, they are context-specific, and they are not static as their responses to the recent downturn reveal.