京津城际高速铁路对区域经济影响定量分析

建立高速铁路对区域经济发展影响的分析指标体系,采用灰色预测和多元线性回归模型测算出2008年、2009年＂无＂京津城际铁路情况下京津地区的相关经济数值,基于＂有无对比原则＂分析京津城际高速铁路对京津两地的区域经济贡献。     

Determinants of the global and regional CO2 emissions: What causes what and where?

Using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model and an unbalanced panel dataset of 128 countries covering 1990–2014, this study aims to examine the key impact factors (KIFs) of the global and regional carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and analyse the effectiveness of non-renewable and renewable energies. Given the potential cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity is applied. The overall estimations imply that the KIFs at the global level are economic growth, followed by population size, non-renewable energy, and energy intensity in order of their impacts on CO₂ emissions; conversely, the KIFs at the regional level vary across different regions and estimators. The results also suggest that renewable energy can lead to a decline in CO₂ emissions at the global level. At the regional level, only for two regions (i.e., S. & Cent. America and Europe & Eurasia) renewable energy has a significant and negative effect on CO₂ emissions, which may be affected by the share of renewable energy consumption in the primary energy mix. Finally, the results indicate varied causality relationships among the variables across regions.

Abbreviations: AMG: Augmented mean group; BP: British Petroleum; BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa; CCEMG: Common correlated effects mean group; CD: Cross-section dependence; CIPS: Cross-sectionally augmented Im, Pesaran, and Shin; CO₂: Carbon dioxide; PS: Population size; D-H: Dumitrescu-Hurlin; EI: Energy intensity; EU: European Union; EU-5: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom; Europe & Eurasia, Europe and Eurasia; GDP: Gross domestic product; IEA: International Energy Agency; KIF: Key impact factor; LM: Lagrange multiplier; Mtoe, Million tonnes oil equivalent; NRE: Non-renewable energy; RE: Renewable energy; S. & Cent. America, South and Central America; STIRPAT: Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology; VECM: Vector error correction model; WDI: World Development Indicators     

世界体系理论及其运作机制研究

世界体系理论兴起于关国,是针对全球化发展历程中资本主义世界变动的现实,吸收众多理论营养形成的一种多学科一体化的理论体系。世界体系有其特定的内涵和特征,有其自身运行的机制,是在结构变动和周期发展中,通过商品链和其中的国家发挥作用而把世界联系成一个有机整体。世界体系理论为当前现实政治、历史、社会问题提供了较新颖的分析工具。     

经济系统中的数学建模

论述了经济系统中数学模型的建立问题,并对数学建模过程进行了理论分析。     

陈传康区域旅游开发思想研究

陈传康先生是我国著名的地理学家,区域旅游开发学的奠基人,其区域旅游开发思想有着深厚的理论基础、系统而丰富的内容,是我国区域旅游开发学领域的优秀思想遗产,对我国区域旅游开发学术研究和区域旅游开发实践产生了深远的影响.     

区域旅游媒体营销初步研究

通过分析我国目前区域旅游媒体营销现状，提出其存在的问题：结合媒体营销的特点，提出了相应的对策。     

我国市场化进程与外资流入方式选择的地区性比较分析

本文以地方省(自治区、直辖市)为分析目标,从市场化进程的角度来分析外资进入各地区的行为特征。通过一个简单的二期微观经济模型从理论和实证两方面阐述和论证了一个假说:在外资进入总量一定的条件下,市场化程度高的地区,外资进入时会选择这样一种进入方式———高直接投资比例,低国际借贷投资比例。     

金融周期波动下银行流动性缓冲调整行为研究——来自美国银行业的经验证据

本文研究金融周期波动下银行流动性缓冲的调整行为,并采用1999-2018年美国4 719家银行的季度面板数据进行实证检验.研究结果表明:第一,银行持有流动性缓冲具有明显的顺周期效应;第二,银行业务特征会影响流动性缓冲的周期性调整:核心存款占比越高、贷款承诺越多的银行波动幅度越大;而批发融资占比越高、对证券化依赖程度越深...     

Reconciling sustainability, systems theory and discounting

Most definitions of sustainability imply that a system is to be maintained at a certain level, held within certain limits, into the indefinite future. Sustainability denies run-away growth, but it also avoids any decline or destruction. This sustainability path is hard to reconcile with the renewal cycle that can be observed in many natural systems developing according to their intrinsic mechanisms and in social systems responding to internal and external pressures. Systems are parts of hierarchies where systems of higher levels are made up of subsystems from lower levels. Renewal in components is an important factor of adaptation and evolution. If a system is sustained for too long, it borrows from the sustainability of a supersystem and rests upon lack of sustainability in subsystems. Therefore by sustaining certain systems beyond their renewal cycle, we decrease the sustainability of larger, higher-level systems. For example, Schumpeter's theory of creative destruction posits that in a capitalist economy, the collapse and renewal of firms and industries is necessary to sustain the vitality of the larger economic system. However, if the capitalist economic system relies on endless growth, then sustaining it for too long will inevitably borrow from the sustainability of the global ecosystem. This could prove catastrophic for humans and other species. To reconcile sustainability with hierarchy theory, we must decide which hierarchical level in a system we want to sustain indefinitely, and accept that lower level subsystems must have shorter life spans. In economic analysis, inter-temporal discount rates essentially tell us how long we should care about sustaining any given system. Economists distinguish between discount rates for individuals based on personal time preference, lower discount rates for firms based on the opportunity cost of capital, and even lower discount rates for society. For issues affecting even higher-level systems, such as global climate change, many economists question the suitability of discounting future values at all. We argue that to reconcile sustainability with inter-temporal discounting, discount rates should be determined by the hierarchical level of the system being analyzed.     

区域因素与外商直接投资技术外溢——浙江的实证检验

基于外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment,FDI)在浙江城市分布表现出较大差异的事实,运用11个城市的工业数据,研究了技术外溢效应与地区经济、社会变量的关系。回归结果表明:省域层面上浙江FDI整体技术外溢效应不明显;政府科技研发投入、人力资本、基础设施、重工业产值比重、国有经济比重等因素与FDI技术外溢存在正相关关系;更新改造投资比例与对外开放度两因素与FDI技术外溢存在负相关关系。在对回归结果分析的基础上提出了若干政策建议。