Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment

This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.     

A true simulation study of three estimators at equal protection of respondents in randomized response sampling

In this study, three different estimators for estimating the proportion of a sensitive attribute in survey sampling are compared at equal protection of the respondents. The three estimators considered are due to Odumade and Singh (2009, Comm. Statist. Theory Methods) , Singh and Sedory (2011, Sociological Methods and Research) and a new estimator obtained by minimizing a chi‐squared distance. A SAS Macro is developed to compare these three estimators using a simulation study at equal protection of the respondents. A set of data from a real face‐to‐face interview was collected using two decks of cards and has been analyzed. The results are discussed.     

区域经济实力的二次相对评价

提高各地区发展经济实力的有效努力程度比评价各地区经济实力更为重要。采用二次相对评价方法,可以消除由于各地区客观经济基础的不同而产生的对评价结果的影响,能够真正体现各地区在发展区域经济实力方面的主观有效努力程度。     

"绝对的相对",抑或"相对的绝对"——汤森和森的贫困理论比较

英国经济学家彼得·汤森认为贫困是因为缺乏资源而被剥夺了享有常规社会生活水平和参与正常社会生活的权利,提出相对贫困测量方法.但是阿马蒂亚·森对此提出了质疑,认为贫困在能力的范围内是绝对的,相对贫困只是绝对贫困的补充而不能替代绝对贫困,是一种绝对的相对贫困观.本文对两人的贫困理论进行了比较和归纳.     

英语同义词的差别

同义词包括绝对同义词和相对同义词。英语中绝大多数同义词属相对同义词,其差别体现在语义、语体、搭配和句法分布等方面。另外,有些多义词能与不同意义的词构成同义词聚合。     

基于差分GPS相对定位的方法探究

GPS相对定位技术已深入到测绘、导航、通讯等的各个领域,尤其在美国政府取消SA和AS政策后,更是得到了广泛的应用。如测量飞行器和船舶编队的飞行及航行时的相对位置。本文以GPS伪距定位基本原理为基础,针对已知位置信息目标和未知位置信息目标之间的相对位置问题进行了探究。     

The impact of production offshoring on the skill composition of manufacturing firms: evidence from Italy

In this work we explore how the international outsourcing of production impacts the skill composition of employment within Italian manufacturing firms. In particular, our aim is to assess whether the choice to offshore production activities to cheap‐labour countries implies a bias in the employment of skilled workers relative to unskilled ones.

Using a balanced panel of firms covering the period 1995–2003, we set up a counterfactual analysis in which, by using a difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching estimator, we compare the dynamics of skill demand for treated and control firms while addressing the possible problem of selection bias.

Our results identify a ‘potential’ skill bias effect of production offshoring. In particular, we find that treated firms tend to show an upward shift in the skill ratio with respect to the counterfactual sample, but coefficients are not significantly different from zero. When we look at the elements of the skill ratio separately, we find that the skill bias is driven by a fall in the employment of production workers (blue collars), rather than by the increase in the employment of non‐production workers (white collars), thus providing further evidence on the unskilled labour‐saving nature of international outsourcing.     

Who votes for public environmental goods in California?: Evidence from a spatial analysis of voting for environmental ballot measures

Voting referenda provide direct evidence of the demand for public goods. A number of previous studies have used referenda to analyze the support for public environmental goods. These studies have used aggregate data from large jurisdictional units (usually counties) and summary income measures such as the mean or median, and have usually found that higher income areas offer greater support for environmental propositions. We examine environmental referenda voting in California using census block group data, spatial dependence controls, and detailed income distribution data. We find that household income has a negative marginal effect on environmental referenda voting for most of the income range when using census block data. In addition, controls for spatial dependence significantly reduce the magnitude of most coefficients. This suggests that OLS estimates of referenda determinants are biased. We also show that county level data may be subject to severe aggregation bias and might not be appropriate for referenda studies.     

我国人口流动与中央财政转移支付相对力度的区域差异分析

为了缩小东中西部地区的发展差距,中央财政加大了对中西部地区的转移支付力度,但在促进区域经济发展收敛和实现地区财政均等化方面其效果如何,文章试图从一种新的视角加以分析与诠释。改革开放以来大规模的人口跨地区流动,特别是年轻劳动力从中西部地区向发达的东部地区流动,改变了各地区的人口结构和总扶养比,进而影响中央财政转移支付的实际效果。研究结果表明,由于西部地区总扶养比高于东部地区,中央财政对西部地区的转移支付相对力度反而低于东部地区。文章最后提出将地区人口负担差异纳入中央财政预算分析体系,通过增加中央财政对经济落后地区的转移支付促进地区经济增长收敛和提高地区财政帮扶的实效性。