Taking superintelligence seriously: Superintelligence: Paths,dangers, strategies by Nick Bostrom (Oxford University Press, 2014)

A new book by Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, is reviewed. Superintelligence explores the future of artificial intelligence and related technologies and the risks they may pose to human civilization. The book ably demonstrates the potential for serious thinking aimed at the long-term future. Bostrom succeeds in arguing that the development of superintelligent machines will, if not properly managed, create catastrophic risks to humanity. The book falls short in some respects, and some sections are more compelling and novel than others. Overall, however, Bostrom’s book succeeds in demolishing the “null hypothesis” according to which the possibility and risks of superintelligence can continue to be ignored, and is a must-read for those interested in the long-term future of humanity.     

Growth uncertainty,generalized disappointment aversion and production-based asset pricing

We study a production economy with regime switching in the conditional mean and volatility of productivity growth. The representative agent has generalized disappointment aversion (GDA) preferences. We show that volatility risk in productivity growth carries a positive and sizable risk premium in levered equity. Our model can endogenously generate long-run risks in the volatility of consumption growth observed in the data. We show that introducing leverage with a procyclical dividend process consistent with the data is critical for the GDA preferences to have a large impact on equity returns.     

江西科技风险投资机构问题探讨

本文通过对江西风险投资机构的数量、股权性质、从业时间和资本规模等现状进行研究,分析了风险投资机构存在的问题及其原因,并从增加风险投资机构数量、突破风险投资机构制度约束和降低风险投资机构风险三方面提出了完善江西风险投资机构的相应对策。     

跟踪误差的风险分析

为了明确指数基金所面临风险的大小以及风险的来源 ,采用回归模型、相关系数和多因素模型对跟踪误差的方差进行分析 ,给出并且证明跟踪误差方差分解的一般表达式 ,并且确定了进一步研究的方向。     

区域经济实力的二次相对评价

提高各地区发展经济实力的有效努力程度比评价各地区经济实力更为重要。采用二次相对评价方法,可以消除由于各地区客观经济基础的不同而产生的对评价结果的影响,能够真正体现各地区在发展区域经济实力方面的主观有效努力程度。     

来自离岸公司的风险及其防范

越来越多的离岸公司出现在我们的周围,并以“外商”的身份对我国进行投资和合作。面对这些“外商”,我们似曾相识,但实际上又不很了解。他有公司的一些特点,但又与我们通常所说的公司有着许多不同。因为这些不同,许多风险便隐藏其中。对东道国及与离岸公司合作的企业来说,认清这些风险,并做好相应的防范。有重要的意义。     

企业的文化风险及对策研究

企业的文化风险不仅是理论界的重要研究对象,同时也是企业在跨国经营中必须面对的实际问题。跨国经营中的文化风险具体表现为沟通风险、种族优越风险、管理风险和商务惯例与禁忌风险等几种形式。文化风险的产生源自于不同文化之间的差异其对企业提供的产品与服务、对市场的选择、市场进入方式、协调管理原则以及国际营销策略都有重要的影响。企业在跨国经营中首先要正确认识文化风险,制定文化风险管理战略,选择适当的风险控制工具,加强跨文化管理,开展跨文化培训,并适当地实行本土化经营。     

Equity Risk Premium Puzzle: Evidence from Indonesia and Sri Lanka

This paper investigates the equity risk premium puzzle in the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets in order to identify the relationship between the volatility of excess returns and the equity risk premium. The asymmetric impact of negative shocks on the equity risk premium is also examined using threshold and exponential GARCH-M models. We analyse data on the excess returns of the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets from 2004 to 2013, and we find that the impact of the conditional volatility of excess returns on the equity risk premium is not significant in either country. Instead, we find an impact from negative return shocks on the equity risk premium only in Sri Lanka. Therefore, we conclude that investors are not compensated for the conditional volatility of the excess returns in these two markets, while Sri Lankan investors are compensated for the risk of negative shocks.     

对外开放条件下的金融安全问题

我国近几年外贸顺差的连创新高,并且进、出口增长的走势与世界经济的联动性日益明显,我国的实体经济已经越来越融入全球经济的大环境当中。同时,我们外贸结构的升级也正在以更快的步伐前进,我国双边贸易的高速增长仍将维持一段时间。中国股市在经历了“2.27”暴跌之后,全球各主要股市随后也遭到重挫。笔者并不认为目前中国的股市对于全球市场有如此巨大的影响,但是全球石油美元的流动以及日元利差交易的变化情况已经逐渐受到国内投资者的重视,中国资本市场已经成为了全球市场的重要一环。在国内实体经济、虚拟经济与世界联动性不断增强的背景下,我们应该更加关注外部因素对于国内经济稳定性的影响,同时也要从其他国家的历史发展经验当中吸取金融安全监管方面的教训。