Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability

Prior literature finds that information is reflected in option markets before stock markets, but no study has explored whether option volume soon after market open has predictive power for intraday stock returns. Using novel intraday signed option-to-stock volume data, we find that a composite option trading score (OTS) in the first 30 min of market open predicts stock returns during the rest of the trading day. Such return predictability is greater for smaller stocks, stocks with higher idiosyncratic volatility, and stocks with higher bid–ask spreads relative to their options’ bid–ask spreads. Moreover, OTS is a significantly stronger predictor of intraday stock returns after overnight earnings announcements. The evidence suggests that option trading in the 30 min after the opening bell has predictive power for intraday stock returns.     

Does corporate governance still affect firm performance after controlling the distress factor?

We explore the impact of corporate governance on firm performance. We first identify whether corporate governance can still be an influential factor or has been largely captured by the traditional Fama-French three-factor model. More importantly, our study adds a financial distress factor to the Fama-French three-factor model to form a four-factor pricing model (labelled as the ‘financial distress four-factor model’). We find that for the US Russell 1000 firms, the financial distress four-factor model is the better model of the two models considered. We further find that the financial distress four-factor model has a higher explanatory power in capturing the return variation. We find that the differences between the return of firms with good (weak) corporate governance and the expected return are insignificantly different from zero for most portfolios in all the two models. The financial distress four-factor model, however, has the fewer portfolios with return difference being significantly different from zero, implying that corporate governance has been better priced in the financial distress factor.     

Do innovative emerging market cross-border acquirers create more shareholder value? Evidence from India

This study attempts to investigate the role of absorptive capacity of emerging market firms in creating shareholder value from developed market acquisitions. It analyzes the cumulative abnormal return of cross border acquisitions of listed Indian firms in Europe focusing on acquirers’ research intensity. The study discovers a U-shaped relationship between research intensity of Indian acquirers and their cumulative abnormal return following acquisitions in Europe. As such, firms with no research capacity can benefit from the acquisition by accessing advanced targets, although firms with extensive research capacity outperform any of their Indian competitors as these firms have the absorptive capacity to not only exploit but also explore the knowledge base of the acquired target. Furthermore, we found a positive effect of the acquisition of a high-tech target company, regardless of the absorptive capacity of the acquirer. We also found that business group membership has a positive impact on shareholder value, although horizontal acquisitions as compared to vertical and unrelated deals have a significantly negative impact for these companies. This result is again linked to the more explorative nature of vertical and unrelated acquisitions in comparison with horizontal deals that are more based on the exploitation of existing resources and capabilities.     

国有部门与非国有部门的工资差异及影响因素研究

基于CGSS数据，利用Heckman样本选择模型对中国国有部门与非国有部门的工资差异和影响因素进行系统研究。回归结果显示，国有部门员工的教育收益率高于非国有部门，教育收益率与学历水平呈现正相关关系，与非国有部门相比，国有部门中大学本科及以上学历员工的教育收益率更高。工资差异分解结果表明，两部门全样本工资差异中市场歧视占比高于特征差异占比，与全样本相比，大学本科及以上学历员工的工资总差异和特征差异占比更高，系数差异占比更低，说明高学历群体中部门间工资差异更为明显，而且两部门中仍存在较严重的劳动力市场分割和就业歧视问题。因此，政府应努力消除劳动力的流动性障碍，深化国有部门市场化改革，制定更为合理的工资机制，以促进中国经济的持续健康稳定增长。     

Optimal investment strategies in an international economy with stochastic interest rates

We investigate how investors should optimally choose to invest in a dynamically complete international market. We find closed-form solutions for the optimal investment strategy and for the wealth loss an investor suffers from not investing internationally. Theoretically, we show that the gain from international investment is due to the speculative investment only, and why it is important for an investor from a large economy to invest in a small economy. In a numerical example we compare the wealth losses investors from Denmark and the U.S. suffer due to home bias.     

Tactical Asset Allocation and Stock Issuance in the Korean Stock Market

Stock issuance predicts future stock returns in the Korean market. This creates profitable trading opportunities. Abnormal returns exist in the zero-cost portfolio that short the firms issuing large numbers of shares and longs those issuing small numbers of shares. Their average abnormal return is 12 percent per annum, which is highly significant even after controlling for market, size, value, and momentum factors as well as transaction costs. The authors suggest the possibility of fixed costs in equity market timing. Only the sizable benefit from market timing over fixed costs motivates firms to increase net equity shares.     

对当前我国外汇储备基金实现投资增值的思考

外汇储备必须在满足流动性和安全性前提下,拓展投资渠道,控制投资风险,提高投资收益.近几年来,我国外汇储备持续高企,而外汇储备基金投资却只有3%的营运收益率.本文分析了我国外汇储备基金投资增值的现状,从区分管理功能和投资功能,组建高效基金运营模式;设定投资基准和投资限额,控制和规避投资风险;优化外汇储备的货币结构和资产结构,拓宽投资渠道;加快培养吸纳国际金融市场操作人才,完善有关法规等几个方面提出了改进外汇储备基金投资增值的对策.     

投资者关注对金银期货市场收益影响的时频分位研究

根据Google投资者关注度指数和金银期货市场交易数据,构建基于小波分解序列的时频门限自回归分布滞后模型,通过分位数模型参数估计,基于时域与频域联合分析视角,考量投资者关注度对金银期货市场收益的影响。结果表明：投资者关注度对金银期货市场的影响具有异质性;在低频域内,投资者关注度对金银期货市场影响相对较小;极端分位数水平下,投资者关注度对金银期货市场收益影响的时效性较短,投资者关注度对白银期货市场收益的影响较弱。     

劳动要素报酬、人口结构与中国居民储蓄

以动态一般均衡模型为出发点,分析劳动要素报酬、人口结构对居民储蓄率的影响,并运用中国1978～2009年的数据对劳动要素报酬、老人赡养比、儿童抚养比与中国居民储蓄率进行实证检验。研究发现,市场经济转型以来的劳动要素报酬高速增长、老人赡养比上升以及儿童抚养比的下降导致中国储蓄率不断升高,在此基础上给出相应的政策建议。     

后金融危机时代股票超额收益率影响因素的探索

运用判别分析法和决策树模型对上证180的成分股是否可以获得超额收益率及其影响因素进行了分析,并将两种方法的分析结果进行了对比。结果表明：两种方法都可以对上市公司是否可以获得超额收益进行分辨,并且可以找出影响因素。但是从两种模型的结果来看,决策树模型要明显优于判别分析法。从我们的分析样本来看,对企业是否可以获得超额收益率的影响因素主要有：市盈率、市净率、息税折旧摊销前利润/营业总收入等。在实际中,通过这两种方法,投资者可以寻找出那些具有超额收益率的股票进行投资,从而使得自身的投资结果优于大盘。