上市公司业绩预告与股票收益率的经验研究

运用上市公司财务与市场数据,对业绩剧变公司的业绩预告的特点、影响因素及业绩预告对股票价格影响的实证研究发现,业绩预告披露的可能性与业绩变动、基金持股比例、公司规模等因素有关,与风险、前十大股东持股比例等因素无关;业绩预告披露、年度财务报告披露期间的异常收益率与ROE变动比率、资产规模、信息披露细致程度等因素有关。在年报披露期间,业绩预告披露与否对异常收益率有显著影响,业绩预告会在一定程度上削弱年度财务报告信息对该公司股票的利空、利好效应.     

从演进经济学视角解读城市形成原因

从经济学演进变迁的视角,梳理不同时期经济学家对城市形成原因的不同解说,可以内在统一地解释城市的形成规律,也能给当前我国的城市发展和城市化进程以理论启示.     

A multiproduct Symmetric Generalized McFadden cost function

This paper introduces a flexible multiproduct cost function that permits zero values of one or more of the outputs and can impose restrictions quite easily, if not automatically satisfied, to ensure global concavity property. It satisfies linear homogeneity (in prices) property and is flexible in the output space. Thus the function is ideal for estimating, for example, economies of scope, cost complementarity, product-specific returns to scale, etc., without worrying about zero values of output(s) and extrapolations to points far from the point of approximation. As an empirical application, we use panel data (1978–1985) on 12 Finnish foundry plants to estimate technical progress, overall returns to scale, product-specific returns to scale and economies of scope.     

Productivity Growth, Efficiency and Outsourcing in Manufacturing and Service Industries

This paper is a survey of recent contributions to, and developments of, the relationship between outsourcing, efficiency and productivity growth in manufacturing and services. The objective is to provide a thorough and up–to–date survey that provides a significant discussion on data, as well as on the core methods of measuring efficiency and productivity. First, the readers are introduced to the measurement of partial and total factor productivity growth. Different parametric and non–parametric approaches to the productivity measurement in the context of static, dynamic and firm–specific modelling are discussed. Second, we survey the econometric approach to efficiency analysis. The issues of modelling, distributional assumptions and estimation methods are discussed assuming that cross–sectional or panel data are available. Third, the relationship between outsourcing and productivity growth in manufacturing and services is discussed. The correspondence between a number of hypotheses and empirical findings are examined. Examples of varieties of relevant empirical applications, their findings and implications are presented. Fourth, measurement of inputs and outputs in manufacturing and services are discussed. Finally, to promote useful research, a number of factors important to the analysis of outsourcing, efficiency and productivity growth in the service sector are summarised.     

风险投资背景异质性与退出时机选择——基于信任视角的实证研究

退出是风险投资获得投资回报、实现投资目标的关键环节,以我国2009—2016年深圳中小板和创业板IPO公司为研究样本,分析风险投资背景异质性对其退出时机的影响,并进一步检验风险投资机构与创业企业之间的信任在其中的调节作用。研究发现：风险投资背景异质性对其退出存在显著影响,与独立风险投资相比,公司风险投资在创业企业IPO后退出企业时间更晚;无论是基于声誉的信任还是基于制度的信任,风险投资机构与创业企业之间双向的信任都会促使公司风险投资更晚退出创业企业;相对于独立风险投资,公司风险投资更晚退出企业是为了追求战略回报。研究表明创业企业可以通过提升风险投资对其信任度来维护其投资管理,而风险投资机构则可以通过提升创业企业对其信任度来加深互惠互信的合作关系。     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

Does High Service Quality Reduce Risk or Create Idiosyncratic Returns?

This article explores the impact of service quality on idiosyncratic returns, idiosyncratic risk (nonsystematic risk), and beta (systematic risk). Service quality was derived from the airline quality rating, and three dependent variables were calculated by the Fama–French four-factor model. The data includes 1,512 monthly records from 1997 to 2006, across 21 airlines. Multiple regression and vector autoregressive models were applied to test relationships among all, low-cost, and non-low-cost airlines. The study found that service quality has a positive impact on idiosyncratic returns in non-low-cost airlines; non-low-cost airlines are less affected by changes in the external environment.     

Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey

This paper investigates the relation between investor sentiment and stock returns on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, employing vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis and Granger causality tests. The sample period extends from July 1997 to June 2005. In the VAR models, stock portfolio returns and investor sentiment proxies are used as endogenous variables. Two dummy variables accounting for natural and economic crises are used as exogenous variables. The analysis results suggest that, excepting shares of equity issues in aggregate issues, stock portfolio returns seem to affect all investor sentiment proxies, namely closed-end fund discount, mutual fund flows, odd-lot sales-to-purchases ratio, and repo holdings of mutual funds. Investor sentiment does not appear to forecast future stock returns; only the turnover ratio of the stock market seems to have forecasting potential.     

Rewarding customers who keep a product: How reinforcement affects customers' product return decision in online retailing

A lenient product return policy represents the status quo of current return management practice in online retailing because it increases customers' order tendency. However, at the same time, many customers tend to return products under this policy, which incurs considerable costs for retailers. The present research introduces a keep reward (i.e., providing incentives to keep a product) as a new promotion strategy to improve the conventional lenient policy. Drawing on operant conditioning, the authors propose and test the reinforcing effect of a keep reward on customers' keep decision, compared to the conventional lenient policy. Results of a qualitative pilot study suggest that a keep reward is generally feasible in online retailing practice, especially in the low‐ to mid‐price segment and with rewards that are linked to future purchases. Two experimental studies verify the positive effect of a keep reward. Study 1 shows that it substantially increases keep intention compared to a conventional lenient policy. Study 2 shows that the effect on keep intention is moderated by customers' online shopping frequency, and this moderating effect is mediated by repurchase intention. In particular, the keep reward is most effective among frequent shoppers because they are more inclined to repurchase and thus, benefit from the reward. In summary, both studies support the keep reward as a valuable add‐on to the conventional lenient policy because order intention remains comparably high, while keep intention is higher. Theoretical implications and recommendations for online retailers on how to implement a keep reward in different industries are discussed.     

Heterogeneity effects from market interventions

The aim of this paper is to test whether the European Commission activities generate a heterogeneity effect on the merging parties. A sample of 74 firms involved in 45 contested merger and acquisition operations during the years 1990 to 1999 is used. The methodology is based on the GARCH framework. The main result is that, globally, the DGC interventions seem not to reduce significantly the heterogeneity among investors, except for the operations where it takes strong decisions like prohibition. In these last cases, the signal coming from the DGC encompasses valuable information and is well understood by market participants.