航天型号研制风险控制研究

航天型号研制是国防建设的重点任务之一,是多学科、多专业综合的系统工程,整个过程可谓风险重重,因此对其风险控制就显得至关重要,作者在以往对型号研制风险管理过程和控制措施的研究成果的基础上,进一步深入研究了航天型号研制风险控制的具体措施,并对其在实践中的应用提供了相应建议。     

Systemic event prediction by an aggregate early warning system: An application to the Czech Republic

This work develops an early warning framework for assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events over a short horizon of six quarters and a long horizon of 12 quarters on a panel of 14 countries, both advanced and developing. First, we build a financial stress index to identify the starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Second, early warning indicators for the assessment and prediction of systemic risk are selected in a two-step approach; we find relevant prediction horizons for each indicator by a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging to identify the most useful indicators. Finally, we observe the performance of the constructed EWS over both horizons on the Czech data and find that the model over the long horizon outperforms the EWS over the short horizon. For both horizons, out-of-sample probability estimates do not deviate substantially from their in-sample estimates, indicating a good out-of-sample performance for the Czech Republic.     

Heterogeneous Risk Preferences,Discount Rates and Land Contract Choice in Ethiopia

This paper analyses the role of risk and rate of time preference in the choice of land contracts. The analysis builds on the risk‐sharing and imperfect market explanations of contract choice. Unique data from Ethiopia, which contain land contract information and experimental risk and rate of time preference measures on matched landlord–tenant partners, are employed in the empirical analysis. The results show that landlord and tenant time preferences are significant determinants of contract choice. For landlords (but not tenants), risk preference is also significant, indicating the importance of financial constraints and production risk in the determination of contract choice. The results are of particular relevance to land market policy in Ethiopia, where production is risk‐prone, financial markets are imperfect, and where there is a major need for the development of vibrant land rental markets.     

The effects of EU agricultural policy changes on farmers' risk attitudes

This analysis utilises a model of production under risk estimatedon Finnish farm-level data to measure farmers' risk attitudesin a changing policy environment. We find evidence of heterogeneousrisk preferences among farmers, as well as notable changes overtime in farmers' degree of risk aversion. This result is dueto the increase in the non-random part of farm income generatedby the policy change after Finland's European Union accession.The analysis confirms the assertion that agricultural policiesthat are decoupled from production do affect input use and cropmix through their effect on farmers' risk attitudes.     

风险预警模型在房地产企业资金管理中的应用探讨

房地产企业资金管理普遍存在负债比例高、资金沉淀严重、投资行为盲目、融资形式单一、资金管理不善等问题。风险预警模型有预知风险、控制风险、防范风险等功能,运用风险预警系统对房地产行业进行监测、预测并判断其景气状态十分必要。选择了灰色风险预警模型和营运资金周转率作为房地产企业资金管理预警模型的核心指标,设计了房地产资金管理风险预警模型的具体算法和资金管理风险预警模型在房地产企业的具体应用。     

中国森林生态产品补偿标准五阶段论

在论述补偿构成、补偿实质等基本问题之后,以成本构成理论为依据,根据目前国家经济发展水平提出了中国森林生态产品补偿标准发展的5个阶段(现行标准、管护成本标准、简单再生产标准、全额生产经营成本标准、效益补偿标准),以便进一步完善中国森林生态产品补偿的理论与实践。     

Large portfolio losses

This paper provide a large-deviations approximation of the tail distribution of total financial losses on a portfolio consisting of many positions. Applications include the total default losses on a bank portfolio, or the total claims against an insurer. The results may be useful in allocating exposure limits, and in allocating risk capital across different lines of business. Assuming that, for a given total loss, the distress caused by the loss is larger if the loss occurs within a smaller time period, we provide a large-deviations estimate of the likelihood that there will exist a sub-period of the future planning period during which a total loss of the critical severity occurs. Under conditions, this calculation is reduced to the calculation of the likelihood of the same sized loss over an initial time interval whose length is a property of the portfolio and the critical loss level.Received: March 2003Mathematics Subject Classification: 60F10, 91B28, 91B28JEL Classification: G21, G22, G33Amir Dembo is with the Department of Statistics, Stanford University. His research was partially supported by NSF grant #DMS-0072331. Jean-Dominique Deuschel is with the Department of Mathematics, Technische Universität, Berlin. His research was partially supported by DFG grant #663/2-3 and DFG FZT 86. Darrell Duffie is with the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. We are extremely grateful for research assistance by Nicolae Gârleanu and Gustavo Manso, for conversations with Michael Gordy, and for comments from Michael Stutzer, Peter Carr, David Heath, and David Siegmund.     

宏观审慎管理框架下的支付系统流动性风险测度及评估研究

本文试图引入宏观审慎管理理念,从支付系统整体流动性入手,通过构建logistic模型来测度与评估支付系统流动性风险。实证结果显示,系统参与者整体流动性风险概率水平波动较为频繁,但处于较低状态。在宏观审慎管理框架下,人民银行应重点关注系统性风险,把系统潜在的流动性风险降到最低层次。     

江西科技风险投资机构问题探讨

本文通过对江西风险投资机构的数量、股权性质、从业时间和资本规模等现状进行研究,分析了风险投资机构存在的问题及其原因,并从增加风险投资机构数量、突破风险投资机构制度约束和降低风险投资机构风险三方面提出了完善江西风险投资机构的相应对策。     

房地产金融调控新“亮剑”

2007年9月27日中央政府出台的《关于加强商业性房地产信贷管理的通知》实质上是国家新一轮产业大调整的开始,开发商对此认识不足,造成十分被动的局面。2008年8月28日中央政府颁布了《金融促进节约集约用地的通知》,第一次使土地管理和金融管理结合到一个文件,表示了政府在房地产领域控制金融风险的决心和力度。开发商应正确领会。