The long breadth of cities: revisiting worldwide urbanization patterns, 1950–2030

ABSTRACT

A comparative analysis of population dynamics worldwide contributes to profile distinctive demographic and economic trajectories of urban growth, discriminating processes of settlement concentration or dispersion under sequential cycles of urbanization. However, a wide-ranging characterization of urban cycles based on demographic dynamics worldwide is still missing. The present work is aimed at filling such a gap analysing long-term changes (1950–2030) in annual population growth rate of 1691 urban agglomerations with more than 300,000 inhabitants in 74 world countries. Results of this study indicate that metropolitan growth worldwide was associated with largely variable rates of population growth, highly positive before 2000 and progressively reducing over recent decades. Despite important differences at continental (and country) scale, demographic expansion of urban agglomerations showed two contrasting phases with a break point in the 1980s denoting a progressive reduction in spatial heterogeneity of population growth rates and a moderate slowdown in demographic dynamics. Intensity of urban expansion and spatial heterogeneity in population growth rates across metropolitan agglomerations evidences a trade-off between fast and slow demographic dynamics. These findings can be better understood to support theories of sequential city growth, making a suitable contribution to policy making, especially in countries where urban population is expanding more rapidly.     

云南城乡收入差距及制度原因分析

云南省社会经济发展自改革开放后非常迅速,但是由于云南边疆多民族地区的现实情况,两级发展矛盾突出,城市和农村之间的差距也在日益拉大。城乡二元结构十分突出,城乡之间二元分割严重,城乡差别持续扩大,已经造成云南城乡关系的紧张和失衡。就此,通过对云南城乡收入差距的分析,从制度层面剖析云南城乡收入失衡的原因。     

关于中国城市化进程中民工潮现象的思考

本文在分析民工潮现象表征和成因的基础上,指出：城市化的历史必然性与我国城乡二元社会经济结构相撞击是形成民工潮现象的根本原因;并从正负两方面效应阐述了民工潮对我国城乡社会经济发展的影响,尤其是正面影响;最后提出民工潮的疏导化解对策。     

Structural changes and regional disparity in China's inflation: a revisit

The study re-examined the time series properties and regional disparities in Chinese inflation by extending the work of Chong, Zhang, and Feng (2011 Chong, Tai-Leeung, Terence, Ning Zhang and Feng, Qu. 2011. Structural Changes and Regional Disparity in China's Inflation. Economics Bulletien, 31(1): 572–583.  [Google Scholar]). For this purpose we employed the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root test with one structural break and two structural breaks suggested by Lee and Strazicich (2003 Lee, Junsoo, Mark, C. and Strazicich. 2003. Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4): 1082–1089. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2004 Lee, J. and Strazicich, M. 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper 04–17, Boone, North Carolina: Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.  [Google Scholar]) and a recently developed ADF type unit root test with two structural breaks of Narayan and Popp (2010 Narayan, Paresh Kumar and Stephan Popp. 2010. A New Unit root test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9): 1425–1438. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We found that national, urban and rural series of the overall inflation series, clothing, and food, national series of education and residence and the rural series of residence and education are stationary. We also found regional disparity in Chinese inflation, but the disparities existed only in education inflation series.     

转型期农村土地冲突爆发原因探究

农村土地冲突不仅影响农村土地资源配置及其效率,而且对我国的社会转型、农村社会和经济稳定发展具有重大意义。分析了农村土地冲突的概念和类型,并从土地资源的天然局限性、农村土地制度的设计缺陷、农村土地的社会保障作用和村委会自治权异化的角度探究了转型期农村土地冲突爆发的原因,为进一步化解农村土地冲突提出努力方向。     

农民工家庭城乡消费决策的影响因素——基于东部9城市抽样调查数据的分析

基于东部9城市的抽样调查数据,结合生命周期—持久收入假说和预防性储蓄假说,考察了农民工家庭城乡消费的影响因素。总体来看,农民工家庭消费的3/4发生在城市,且城市消费比重有进一步上升的趋势;农民工家庭的城乡消费有着不同的决策机制,但都呈现出明显的生命周期特征;持久收入、收入的不确定性以及人均住房资产是影响城市消费的重要因素。     

农机补贴的收入分配效应：效率、公平，抑或兼而有之*

农机补贴是具有门槛效应的效率增益政策,通常效率与公平如鱼和熊掌不可兼得。本文通过理论模型分析了农机补贴对农业生产及农村劳动力转移的影响;并通过工具变量法和中介变量法研究了农机补贴的收入分配效应及其作用机制。研究发现,农机补贴显著降低了农户收入的基尼系数,提高了收入分配公平性;其作用机制是农机补贴提升了农业生产效率,促进了农村劳动力转移,提高了打工收入,尤其是相对贫困农户,溢出效应对冲了门槛效应,使得农机补贴的收入分配效应兼具了效率和公平。     

乡村旅游电子商务发展与网络系统构建

网络经济时代到来,旅游信息成为行业重要战略资源,电子商务的发展为旅游业信息化提供主要支持。乡村旅游已发展成为当前最热旅游活动之一,具有广阔电子商务发展空间。以国内外乡村旅游电子商务网建设为案例,从网络建设角度,分析比较得出国内乡村旅游电子商务发展处于初级阶段,电子商务网络结构与功能模式滞后。针对电子商务网络发展的现状,结合国际旅游电子商务网建设经验,对我国乡村旅游电子商务网络结构与功能设计进行理论归纳,以期提供理论与实证借鉴。     

Ecological Transfers in Non-Human Communities Parallel Economic Markets in a General Equilibrium Ecosystem Model

Synopsis: The oft-cited analogies between ecological and economic systems are exploited to develop a many-species model of population dynamics. In economies, markets are the fundamental institutions in which the interaction of demands and supplies determine the quantities and prices of goods. However, economic markets are not appropriate for ecological communities, because markets rely on voluntary exchange, whereas plants and animals engage in involuntary transfers of biomass. A properly defined counterpart to markets based on biomass transfers permits a general equilibrium model of predator/prey and competitive interactions in a many-species community. Functional response from optimal foraging and predation risk provide the demand and supply, respectively, in the biomass transfers. Energy per unit time is scarce and predators and prey make optimum choices with respect to functional response and risk avoidance based on required energy expenditures. The energy expenditures are similar to economic prices: they determine foraging strategies and are beyond the control of the predators and prey, yet they are determined by the aggregate choices of all predators and prey and by population densities. The energies acquired from foraging are used in a new way to construct difference equations that determine the population dynamics. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An introduction to rural and agricultural development in the digital age

This special issue contributes to the development economics literature by highlighting the role of information communication and technologies (ICTs) in supporting rural and agricultural development. It is comprised of nine papers. Key findings from this special issue include: (1) internet use increases rural consumption diversity and agricultural productivity; (2) smartphone use empowers rural women in household decision-making and off-farm work participation; (3) smartphone-based agricultural extension services boost rural income growth; (4) a lack of ICT infrastructure and inadequate skills to use digital technologies are two key factors that lead to digital poverty traps for smallholder rural farmers; (5) ICT adoption increases the probability of rural households' access to credit and empowers rural women and farm households in relatively less developed regions to access credit; (6) digital financial inclusion reduces farmers' vulnerability to poverty; and (7) e-commerce adoption increases both sales prices and marketing costs, but the magnitude of increasing the former is higher than the magnitude of increasing the latter, which finally contributes to a higher gross return. This special issue also proposes practical instruments and implications for advancing the application of ICTs in rural areas to accelerate rural and agricultural development in the digital age.