增长极战略的实现机制与中国实践模式的重构

增长极理论是20世纪50年代新古典区域均衡发展理论遭遇危机之后的新选择,但自其诞生以来由于缺乏成功案例的支持而备受争议。我国区域非均质、不平衡使得增长极模式备受推崇,但在发展中同样遭遇困境。鉴于理论与现实鲜明的反差,以增长极的实现机制为切入点剖析了该理论的不足,指出我国三大增长极在实践中存在政府依赖刚性、自我发展能力弱、关联效应差等问题,认为完整的增长极实现机制应包括形成机制、运行机制和扩散机制,并从这三大机制入手重构了中国增长极的实践模式,提出相关政策建议。     

不再沉默——从欧茨笔下的莫琳形象看女性话语权

在这个男权社会中,男性话语是主导,而女性话语权一直被压抑着。女人只能以男人的声音说话,或是干脆处于“失声”状态。针对这一现象,通过对欧茨的代表作《他们》中的莫琳形象进行深入分析,探讨生活在男权淫威之下的女性寻求自我声音,获取自我身份的艰难历程。     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market‐specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.     

A bibliometric study of financial risk literature: a historic approach

This study probes into the development of financial risk literatures through the perspective of bibliometrics. The research samples were collected from the relevant international financial business bibliographic databases. A total of 2727 entries in a span of 29 years from 1970 to 2009 were collected and the results are summarized as follows: (1) the financial risk literatures under influence of the financial turmoil in Asia achieved substantial growth from 1997 to 1998 and an exponential growth curve during the global financial turmoil from 2007 to 2009; (2) the literatures were mainly journals and articles written in English; (3) the United States ranked first in sector productivity; (4) the author productivity of the financial risks was consistent with the Lotka's Law and (5) the document types of the financial risk literatures were mostly dissertation papers on economics and business.     

The effects of multilateral trading systems on risk and return in equity markets

The event study methodology of Brown and Warner (1985) is adopted and augmented to evaluate the effect of the launch of multilateral trading systems on risk and return in equity markets. The methodology is supplemented with various techniques, such as the nonparametric ranking test and kernel regression, to find out if announcements about the introduction of Chi-X Australia generated abnormal returns (ARs). Asset pricing models are fitted with interaction variables, while GARCH, threshold ARCH (TARCH), exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and power-ARCH (PARCH) are used to determine changes in systematic risk. We find evidence in favour of Fisher’s separation theorem and detect a new market anomaly, which we call the ‘Fisher market anomaly’. Our results show that Chi-X system testings affect ARs. Consistent with the adaptive expectations theory, we confirm that the first announcement about the launch of Chi-X affected systematic risk the most. In addition, we identify industry and firm effects in risk analysis.     

Impulse response analysis and Orcutt’s hypothesis in trade: evidence from developing countries

Orcutt’s hypothesis in international economics implies that trade flows respond to exchange rate changes faster than to changes in relative prices. Most previous studies used import and export demand models and tested the hypothesis by imposing and comparing lag lengths on the exchange rate and relative prices. One recent study, however, employed impulse response of trade flows to one SD shock to the nominal exchange rate and one SD shock to relative prices and tested the Orcutt’s hypothesis for several industrial countries. In this article we follow this study and test the hypothesis for six developing countries using impulse response analysis. Like the other study for industrial countries, we do not find much support for the hypothesis.     

基于分类最优原理的小企业信用风险评价

基于分类最优原理进行小企业信用风险评价,即以违约样本和非违约样本的重心距离最大为目标函数,以指标的三角模糊熵及变异系数组成的指标权重区间为约束条件,确定指标的组合权重,评价小企业信用风险状况。应用实例结果表明:利用该方法评价小企业的信用风险,能够更好地区分违约客户与非违约客户,使模型的判别精度有所提高。     

Ugo Broggi: a precursor in mathematical economics

The concern for the existence of solution to the Walras - Cassel model is usually dated at the beginning of the 1930s, and one decade later the proof of existence of utility function. Ugo Broggi, however, posed both issues in 1923 and 1919, respectively, and even hinted at modern ways of solving them. He was an outstanding mathematician, a former disciple of David Hilbert and collaborator with the Giornale degli Economisti. Broggi's achievements are also linked to a critical reading of Osorio's treatise on Paretian economics.     

China's macroeconomic stability – an empirical study based on survey data

A complete financial stability analysis should include investigation on macroeconomic stability since macroeconomic development and potential imbalance can increase the financial instability and trigger a financial crisis. Survey data of rating on China's macroeconomic stability is analyzed by estimating an ordered logit model with random effect. Among the candidate macroeconomic indicators, we found that inflation is the key variable that determines China's macroeconomic stability, followed by the change in budget balance and GDP growth gap.     

Caste,Kinship, and Life Course: Rethinking Women's Work and Agency in Rural South India

This paper reexamines the linkages between women's work, agency, and well-being based on a household survey and in-depth interviews conducted in rural Tamil Nadu in 2009 and questions the prioritization of workforce participation as a path to gender equality. It emphasizes the need to unpack the nature of work performed by and available to women and its social valuation, as well as women's agency, particularly its implications for decision making around financial and nonfinancial household resources in contexts of socioeconomic change. The effects of work participation on agency are mediated by factors like age and stage in the life cycle, reproductive success, and social location – especially of caste – from which women enter the workforce.