On a nonparametric estimator for ruin probability in the classical risk model

In this paper, we present a nonparametric estimator for ruin probability in the classical risk model with unknown claim size distribution. We construct the estimator by Fourier inversion and kernel density estimation method. Under some conditions imposed on the kernel, bandwidth and claim size density, we present some large sample properties of the estimator. Some simulation studies are also given to show the finite sample performance of the estimator.     

The use of variance decomposition in the investigation of CEO effects: How large must the CEO effect be to rule out chance?

Variance decomposition analysis is often used to examine the degree to which CEOs influence their companies' performance (the so‐called CEO effect). Such studies play an important role in a body of literature that investigates the effect of leadership on organizations. In this paper, I argue that these previous studies have an important underlying flaw. Empirically, these studies wrongly attribute the performance effect of randomness—of chance—to the CEO. I demonstrate how randomness can affect the measured effects in a variance decomposition analysis, and I show that this is especially problematic for the measurement of CEO effects. I demonstrate how this results in a greatly inflated CEO effect and develop an approach to correct for it. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Replicating,validating, and reducing the length of the consumer perceived value scale

This research reports an assessment of Sweeney and Soutar's (2001) consumer perceived value (PERVAL) scale. The PERVAL scale contains four dimensions: quality, emotional, price, and social values. The present study develops and evaluates two short forms of the original 19-item PERVAL scale based on Sweeney and Soutar's (2001) original data and three other studies in two different countries. In comparison with the full scale, the short 12-item and 8-item forms have equally good dimensional properties and equivalent predictive validity. The discussion includes implications, both for research and for retail managers.     

浅析几种影响粮食加工装备质量的关键技术及相应对策

本文详细分析了影响粮食加工装备质量的几种关键技术：即可靠性设计技术、智能化控制技术、关键零部件使用寿命技术、制造技术、大型化技术.从分析中得出我国粮食装备技术的不足以及引起不足的原因,并提出相应对策,希望引起加工制造企业足够的重视,提高我国粮食加工装备的质量.     

我国商业石油储备的规模预测

石油是工业经济发展的最重要的能源动力。随着我国工业经济的迅速发展,石油资源的消费数量日益增加,但由于我国的石油资源并不丰富,近年来,石油消费对外部供给的依赖性越来越强。2012年石油对外依存度已经达到了57%,我国石油能源供给安全日益受到外部地缘政治风险和国际市场风险的严重威胁。借鉴国外经验,我国亟顺建立商业石油储备体系以保证我国石油能源消费的安全,降低经济运行的石油能源消费风险。本文主要运用LEAP模型对我国石油消费需求和石油供给能力进行分析,并对商业石油储备的规模进行预测,最后为我国发展商业石油储备提出了相关政策建议。     

基于成本调整的义务教育转移支付额度测算——以江苏省为例

本文将江苏省义务教育成本指标运用于转移支付额度的测算,研究对比成本调整前后的转移支付总额度后发现：义务教育财政转移支付总额度较成本调整之前下降了;苏南地区的部分县市开始成为教育财政转移支付的受援对象;成本调整之后的某些县市的义务教育转移支付在被测算的三个年度中每年都有变化。这些结论的政策意义是,考虑了成本差异的转移支付不仅提高了效率、也更显公平,并且成本指标和转移支付额度需定期重新测算。     

武汉市轨道交通对住宅价格影响的时空效应及 异质性分析 ——基于网络结构和规模视角

研究目的：基于轨道交通静态网络结构和动态网络规模视角,探究轨道交通对住宅价格影响的时空效应及异质性,为城市轨道交通网络沿线土地开发和土地价值捕获政策制定提供参考。研究方法：社会网络分析、特征价格模型。研究结果：（1）轨道交通对住宅价格具有显著的积极影响,最大影响范围为1 400 m。（2）不同度数中心性站点对住宅价格的影响不同,在影响强度上,从大到小依次为首末换乘站＞换乘枢纽站＞普通换乘站＞常规或首末非换乘站;在影响范围上,换乘站的影响范围为800 m,而非换乘站为1 400 m;在影响趋势上,换乘站的资本化效应与到地铁站距离之间呈倒“U”型关系,而非换乘站的资本化效应随到地铁站距离的增加而逐渐降低。（3）站点的中介中心性、接近中心性与住宅价格之间呈现显著的正向关联,但与轨道交通的资本化效应之间呈现显著的负向关联。（4）早期运营的轨道交通对沿线住宅价格的影响随着轨道交通网络规模的扩大而总体呈现先升后降的倒“U”型趋势。研究结论：轨道交通对住宅价格的影响具有显著的时空异质性特征,土地价值捕获应统筹考虑轨道交通站点的网络结构特征和轨道交通网络的规模。     

Productivity and farm size in Australian agriculture: reinvestigating the returns to scale

A positive relationship between farm size and farm productivity is often considered to be largely due to increasing returns to scale in farm production. However, using farm‐level data for the Australian broadacre industry, we found that constant or mildly decreasing returns to scale is the more typical scenario. In this study, the marginal returns to various farm inputs are compared across farms with different sizes. We found that large farms achieved higher productivity by changing production technology rather than increasing scale alone. The results highlight the disparity between ‘returns to scale’ and ‘returns to size’ in the industry, suggesting that productivity improvement among smaller farms can be made through increasing their ability to access advanced technologies, rather than simply expanding their scale.     

建设公益性地质调查队伍之我见

如何组建省级公益性地质调查队伍,在管理体制、组建的方式方法等方面引起了不小的争论。按照国务院《关于加强地质工作的决定》的要求,建设省级公益性地质调查队伍应遵循政事、政企分开,地质勘查资源优化配置,基础性、公益性与商业性地质工作相互衔接,省级地勘队伍稳定等原则。省级公益性地勘队伍的主要职责是承担省级基础性、公益性地质调查任务,为区域经济和社会发展提供地质基础信息资料并向社会提供公益性服务,队伍规模控制在600—800人左右,人员设置应以矿产地质、水工环、物化遥、探矿工程、经济管理人员为主。队伍组建应以属地化管理的地勘队伍为主。