Is health care a necessity or a luxury? Evidence from urban China

This article uses a smooth transition regression (STR) model to research the income elasticity of the health care expenditure of China’s urban residents in the 1990–2013 period. The results demonstrate that if the real income of China’s urban residents that lags a period is taken as a transition variable, urban residents’ health expenditure follows an LSTR1 nonlinear two-regime model. Here, the income elasticity of health care expenditure of China’s urban residents is 1.4919 in 1990–2002 and 1.2216 in 2003–2013. Overall, the income elasticity of health care of China’s urban residents is greater than 1, indicating that health care is a luxury.     

What Makes Firms Competitive? States,Markets, and Organisational Embeddedness in Competitive Firm Restructuring in Postsocialist Economies

The prevailing transitions literature suggests that dynamic firms in postsocialist economies are the result of macroinstitutional reforms leading to the making of markets. This article builds on work in comparative political economy and economic sociology to show that the degree of competitive behaviour of postsocialist firms is determined not by the existence of general market institutions alone but by the kinds of organisational allies firms possess and the kinds of markets they compete in. Using firm survey data across 28 postsocialist economies, the article examines the determinants of competitive restructuring by firms, including product innovation, standards upgrade, financial transparency, and investments in research and development. The article confirms insights from comparative political economy which suggest that dynamic enterprise sectors emerge when governance is effective. However, at the firm level, the article finds that transnational ties and supportive policy environments are most significant in the making of dynamic postsocialist enterprises. The article also highlights important regional variation in firm behaviour and discusses the relationship between institutional frameworks, organisational embeddedness, and firm restructuring in postsocialist economies.     

Capital flows and growth dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe

This article assesses the importance of capital flows as measured by the current account balance for the growth dynamics of the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe. Economic growth in these countries was on average relatively high before the global financial crisis but markedly lower after the crisis. Panel data econometrics using annual data for 1997–2015 point to the contemporaneous current account balance having a sizeable negative effect on annual GDP growth. Estimations using many control variables and instrumental variables suggest that the negative effect is mainly demand driven. Counterfactual simulations show that growth rates in all CEE countries would have been lower in the absence of capital flows, and this applies particularly to the countries with the most disadvantageous starting points.     

Ten lessons from a quarter of a century of post-communist economic transformation

The dominant idea in the early post-communist economic transition was that an early and comprehensive radical economic reform programme was needed. This program was accompanied by a clear programme of political economy reform, which included; a clear understanding that the old system was finished, a political breakthrough, new political leaders, new economic policymakers, the swift elaboration of a reform programme, a functioning parliament, sufficient international financial support, fast implementation, public understanding, and the overruling of any need for consensus. In hindsight, all of these factors worked when they were present. Critics warned of too sharp an output fall, which did not come to pass, lagging institutional development, and neglect of social reforms. The biggest problem has become the absence of real property rights because of captured judicial systems in the post-communist countries not belonging to the European Union.     

国家审计在反腐败中的作用透视——以捷克为例

防范与揭露腐败,是国家审计义不容辞的责任,也是国家审计参与国家治理的重要途径。捷克最高审计署依法参与反腐败的经验与做法,在国有企业财务收支、政府采购合同和欧盟资金管理等方面的审计实践,尤其是针对腐败的预防提出的建设性的要求,可以为我国国家审计所借鉴。另外,捷克最高审计署为了提升自身的反腐败审计水平,在加大对员工信息化审计培训的同时,积极参与国际反腐败审计的合作,取得了一些成果。我国国家审计可以借鉴捷克最高审计署的反腐败审计经验,更好地参与国家治理。     

服务型政府视野下政府会计向服务会计的转型——以公共危机为范例

公共危机是常态,公共危机发生的前中后政府需投入大量的人力、财力、物力,对这些人力、财力和物力发生发展过程和结果的核算、反映和监督等,需要政府会计充分发挥其服务职能。在大力推进服务型政府建设的过程中,政府会计必须相应地向服务会计转型,并坚持以科学发展观为指导、以服务型政府的执政理念为导向、以政府会计的改革为方向。     

广西乡村──城市转型与协调发展研究

本文揭示了“八五”期间广西乡村──城市转型发展的特征及其地理动力机制．预测未来15—25年内乡村──城乡转型发展的趋势、提出了促进乡村──城市转型与协调发展的一些对策建议。     

Predictability of bull and bear markets: A new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US

The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines dimensionality reduction, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict excess returns on the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 146 popular macroeconomic and financial variables using different principal component analysis techniques. Second, we estimate Markov-switching models with time-varying transition probabilities using the principal components as predictors. Third, we pool the models in forecast clusters to hedge against model risk and to evaluate the usefulness of different specifications. Our weekly forecasts respond to regime changes in a timely manner to participate in recoveries or to prevent losses. This is also reflected in an improvement of risk-adjusted performance measures as compared to several benchmarks. However, when considering stock market returns, our forecasts do not outperform common benchmarks. Nevertheless, they do add statistical and, in particular, economic value during recessions or in declining markets.     

A ‘socialist’ economy in a capitalist world

Contending views about the ‘threats’ and ‘opportunities’ relating to China’s economic rise reflect the complex and, for many, confusing role of the state in China’s reform and development process. This in turn relates to a marked difference between China’s official perception of ‘Socialism with Chinese characteristics’ and alternative views regarding the nature of its emerging capitalist system. This glaring gap in perceptions is problematic in an increasingly globalised world, complicating debates about what China should and will do to rebalance its domestic economy how other nations should and will react to the recent surge in Chinese investment overseas. This paper reflects on these debates in the context of China’s multifaceted and ever-evolving economic system.     

解读中国转型社会信用危机的根源

本文首先介绍了社会资本的核心要素--信用,并以此为基础,分析了具有对应性的失信行为的理论根源及其矫正的理论机制.结合上述分析的结论,本文进一步展开实证研究,揭示了中国转型社会条件下信用危机问题的根源.