The Making of Entrepreneurs in Germany: Are Native Men and Immigrants Alike?

This paper uses a state of the art three-stage estimation technique to identify the determinants of the self-employed immigrant and native men in Germany. Their making is surprisingly alike. Employing data from the German Socioeconomic Panel 2000 (GSOEP) release we find that self-employment is not significantly affected by exposure to Germany or by human capital. But this choice has a very strong intergenerational link and it is also related to homeownership and financial worries. While individuals are strongly pulled into self-employment if it offers higher earnings, immigrants are additionally pushed into self-employment when they feel discriminated. Married immigrants are more likely to go into self-employment, but less likely when they have young children. Immigrants with foreign passports living in ethnic households are more likely self-employed than native Germans. The earnings of self-employed men increase with exposure to Germany, hours worked and occupational prestige; they decrease with high regional unemployment to vacancies ratios. Everything else equal, the earnings of self-employed Germans are not much different from the earnings of the self-employed immigrants, including those who have become German citizens. However, immigrants suffer a strong earnings penalty if they feel discriminated against while they receive a premium if they are German educated.     

Entrepreneurship in the EU: To Wish and not to be

The entrepreneurial capacity in an economy is a key determinant of economic growth and productivity improvements. This paper uses survey data from the 15 EU Member States and the US to investigate two aspects of entrepreneurial capacity: latent and actual entrepreneurship. Latent entrepreneurship is measured by the probability of a declared preference for self-employment over employment. Other than demographic variables such as gender, age and education level, the set of explanatory variables used includes country specific effects, the perception by respondents of administrative complexities and of availability of financial support and a rough measure of risk tolerance. The most striking result is the lack of explanatory power of the perception of lack of available financial support in the latent entrepreneurship equation.     

Self-Employed Nicaraguan Women Under Neoliberalism: Characteristics and Determinants

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the characteristics and determinants of self-employed women in Nicaragua during the neoliberal period of the 1990s. The labor market outcomes of women (self-employed, waged and salaried) are analyzed utilizing micro data from the 1998 and 1993 Nicaraguan Living Standards Measurement Surveys. The empirical results derived from the usage of a switching regression choice model suggest that work experience is the major determinant of self-employment. Experience, marriage and residence in the southern region are critical and significant elements of the self-employment decision. Mixed findings are reported for sectoral selection, suggesting that the self-employed may alternate back and forth between sectors with the highest returns.

RESUMEN. Este estudio explora las características y determinantes de las mujeres autónomas en Nicaragua durante el período neoliberal de los años 1990. El resultado del mercado laboral femenino (autónomas, empleadas temporales y asalariadas) es objeto de un enfoque analítico basado en datos micro de los años 1998 y 1993 que constan en la Medición de las Encuestas sobre los Estándares de Vida Nicaragüenses. Los resultados empíricos obtenidos usando un modelo selectivo de intercambio regresivo, sugieren que la experiencia laboral es el mayor determinante del empleo autónomo. La experiencia, casamiento y domicilio en la región sureña son elementos críticos e importantes en la toma de decisión de ser autónoma. La mezcla dehallazgos encontrados se expone para facilitar la selección sectorial, sugiriendo que el empleo autónomo puede alternar como péndulo entre los sectores que ofrecen retornos más altos.

RESUMO. Este artigo explora as características e determinantes das mulheres autônomas na Nicarágua durante o período neoliberal dos anos noventa. As informaç[otilde]es existentes sobre o mercado de trabalho das mulheres (autônomas e assalariadas) são analisadas, a partir dos dados detalhados retirados dos Estudos de Mensuração dos Padr[otilde]es de Vida Nicaragüenses de 1998 e 1993. Os resultados empíricos derivados do uso de um modelo de escolha baseado no método de switching regression sugerem que a experiência de trabalho é um fator determinante do trabalho autônomo ou auto-emprego. Experiência, casamento e residência na região sul são elementos críticos e significantes da decisão de se auto-empregar ou tornar-se um profissional autônomo. Resultados mistos são reportados para a seleção por setor de atividade, sugerindo que o profissional autônomo ou auto-empregado pode alternar entre setores, indo e vindo em busca daqueles que oferecem retornos mais elevados.     

Forecasting the semiconductor industry cycles by bootstrap prediction intervals

In recent years, there has been a recognition that point forecasts of the semiconductor industry sales may often be of limited value. There is substantial interest for a policy maker or an individual investor in knowing the degree of uncertainty that attaches to the point forecast before deciding whether to increase production of semiconductors or purchase a particular share from the semiconductor stock market. In this article, I first obtain the bootstrap prediction intervals of the global semiconductor industry cycles by a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using monthly US data consisting of four macroeconomic and seven industry-level variables with 92 observations. The 24-step-ahead out-of-sample forecasts from various VAR setups are used for comparison. The empirical result shows that the proposed 11-variable VAR model with the appropriate lag length captures the cyclical behaviour of the industry and outperforms other VAR models in terms of both point forecast and prediction interval.     

Weather Risk, Wages in Kind, and the Off-Farm Labor Supply of Agricultural Households in a Developing Country

This article investigates the effects of weather risk on the off-farm labor supply of agricultural households in a developing country, distinguishing different types of off-farm labor markets. A multivariate two-limit tobit model is applied to data from India. The regression results show that the share of the off-farm labor supply increases with weather risk, the increase is much larger in the case of nonagricultural work than in the case of agricultural wage work, and the increase is much larger in the case of agricultural wages paid in kind than in the cash wage case, suggesting farmers' considerations of food security.     

从扶持安置到能力开发：残疾人就业保障转型研究

当前, 我国在促进残疾人就业方面主要依靠经济扶持和就业安置手段,一定程度上解决了残疾人就业难的问题,基本保障了残疾人就业权利,并已形成相对稳定的残疾人就业格局。但由于就业保障理念滞后、就业保障制度和就业服务体系不完善,残疾人就业难依然存在。应转变残疾人就业保障理念,重视残疾人人力资源开发,从扶持安置向能力开发转型。要建立政府、社会组织、企业和家庭等多元主体协同推进的残疾人就业能力开发体系,以能力开发为导向构建以职业培训、职业康复和扶贫开发为核心的残疾人就业扶持机制,并建立和完善社会化的残疾人就业服务体系以配合和推动残疾人就业保障转型,进而营造残健融合的就业环境,有效提升残疾人就业能力和质量。     

Entrepreneurs, Professionals, and Growth

We examine the implications for growth and development of the existence of two types of human capital: entrepreneurial and professional. Entrepreneurs accumulate human capital through a work-experience intensive process, whereas professionals human capital accumulation is education-intensive. Moreover, the return to entrepreneurship is uncertain. We show how skill-biased technological progress leads to changes in the composition of aggregate human capital; as technology improves, individuals devote less time to the accumulation of human capital through work experience and more to the accumulation of human capital through professional training. Thus, our model explains why entrepreneurs play a relatively more important role in intermediate-income countries and professionals are relatively more abundant in richer economies. It also shows that those countries that initially have too little of either entrepreneurial or professional human capital may end up in a development trap.     

天使投资对大学生创业支持的障碍及对策分析

微型企业创业是大学生创业的必然选择,本文分析了天使投资对大学生创业支持的主要障碍因素,并给出了大力发展创业教育,制定政策支持大学生创业,鼓励天使投资人投资,建立天使投资人网络,加强相关立法研究等对策,对于微型企业克服资金障碍,健康成长具有一定的理论与实践意义。     

我国农民自我就业的收入效应及其影响因素

20世纪80年代末90年代初以来,我国农民自我就业发展迅猛,并成为农村非农生产部门增速最快的领域。对我国1988—2007年相关数据所作的协整分析和格兰杰因果检验表明,农民自我就业具有十分明显的收入效应,进一步提高农民自我就业水平,无疑是增加农民收入的必然选择。当前的农民自我就业,受制于资金、能力和市场因素,亟需从环境、服务、机会等多方面加以扶持和激励。